Intel: Computers Win by 2050
Intel’s Chief recently explored some of the innovations that are shaping technology, and suggested that computers will surpass humans in intelligence by 2050. Although I think that is a pessimistic time frame, it is encouraging to see the notion of very intelligent and/or conscious computers discussed in the mainstream company news:
http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/20080821comp.htm?iid=pr1_releasepri_20080821m
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For a long time a jet fighter has really been too complex and when anything went wrong with the computers it was “head for an unpopulated area and punch out”. Now its becoming a situation where the physical as well as mental demands are simply too great to even have a pilot onboard and the dogfights will be via remote “pilots”.
We already have poker players doing battle with bots … and often not even knowing it.
But we have GPS misdirected motor vehicles, passenger trains dispatched with insufficient fuel, casino slot machines that announce a one million dollar jackpot when it should be an eight hundred dollar jackpot … and a host of other instances wherein these intelligent machines occasionally act really dumb.
Intelligence? Common sense has been said to be more important. I don’t want either a dumb robot or an intelligent robot tying my shoelaces when I’m crossing a busy intersection.
No matter how many autonymous agents you have acting collaboratively to discover their own environments and their own goals and to learn from each other, there will always be misunderstandings.
Great stuff FG, though I think I’m more optimistic that the computer minds will be so much more effective than our own we’ll warm up to them quickly. There are reasonable dystopian concerns, though for me the possible benefits far surpass the potential dangers.
You are probably right that there will be misunderstandings even with machines doing much of the thinking, but we have so many of those now I think the superior machine intelligences will sort things out much faster than we can ever hope to do.
A lot will shake out pretty soon – it’s reasonable to think that the blue brain project will have a good model human brain in about 10 years. Will this reproduction have consciousness? I’m guessing yes, and very much looking forward to chatting with that entity.
dude!, said the conscious computer, could you PLEASE pass me another slice of pizza?
“Will this reproduction have consciousness?…Very much looking forward to chatting with that entity.”
Are you under the impression that FoolsGold is a human being?
WREL power charge in an airport… sure, but probably have to walk to the other terminal, deal with some dumb clerk to get access and pay through the nose for it.
All these autonomous agents having collective wisdom and sensory robots, but I bet that not even the robot will be able to fluff my pillow correctly. And the robot at Starbucks that reads my brain waves to know whether I want coffee or tea is probably still going to ask me three zillion questions before I finally just get a cup of coffee!
Blue Brain? I’ve not even seen Blue Man Group yet!