AOL and Yahoo star in “Spawn of the Ugly Ducklings”
After Yahoo turned down Microsoft’s offer of over $31 per share there has not been much good news for a troubled Yahoo, with a price now right about *half* what Microsoft offered. However it does appear that Yahoo will merge with another struggling internet empire: AOL. Time Warner’s merger with AOL years ago will probably go down as one of the most misguided corporate marriages in history leading as it did to nothing but heartaches and lowered TW values, but the Yahoo deal actually seems to make a lot of sense to me if Yahoo can get it’s management act in gear. With AOL Yahoo will control even more valuable internet items such as about half of all the email accounts in the world. Some reports suggest that Microsoft may have even more interest in a combined Yahoo AOL. In today’s challenged fiscal environment it seems unlikely Yahoo could refuse another MS takeover even at a reduced cost per share.
Disclosure: Long on YHOO
Mossberg on Google Phone
Here is a great early review by Walt Mossberg on the new Google phone. His initial take seemed to be that it’s not as stylish as the iPhone or as good with media, but the keyboard and interface are nice and this may be the better choice for Google centric phonesters.
Google Phone Coming … Today
The widely anticipated debut of the Google Smart Phone is today. The phone will be made my HTC, sold by TMobile, and run by Android the open source operating system. Offering free email service to all subscribers, It appears Google and Tmobile are going after the blackberry market more than iPhone which sounds like a clever plan to me. Apple users are very loyal and very unlikely to move away from their beloved iPhones. Blackberry and Treo users will be looking closely at the new phone and I think in many cases happy to move to a better phone (me certainly included as a Treo user).
More from PC Magazine, including some Google Phone pictures
Sergey Brin is Blogging
Google co-founder Sergey Brin has just started a new blog which promises to offer some interesting insights into one of the most influential people in the technology world.
His first post details something incredibly personal - Brin’s predisposition to Parkinson’s Disease. He learned this from an examnation of his DNA by 23andMe, the company co-founded by Brin’s wife Anne.
Advertising Arbitrage: Another Case Study in Death by Algorithm
The New York Times has an interesting summary of the demise of profits for a website called SourceTool.
The site was buying Google Adwords pay per click traffic to the tune of some 500,000 per month and then monetizing that traffic for a profit of about $110,000 per month using Google Adsense pay per clicks (where Google shares revenue with the site). This form of PPC Arbitrage is no longer encouraged by Google - in fact I think this was related to the Comscore fiasco earlier this year, where Google announced fewer clicks and the Comscore analysis led to Google stock tanking until Google announced a higher revenue per click which made the stock soar.
SourceTool, along with a handful of heavy hitting online advertisers like Proctor and Gamble, has written in favor of the justice department denying Google and Yahoo’s proposed advertising partnership arguing that the combined Yahoo Google ad empire would control some 90% of the market.
Matt Cutts from Google
Matt Cutts at the Google Dance
Originally uploaded by JoeDuck
It’s always great to get a chance to talk to Matt Cutts at search conferences though I didn’t have any good complicated search questions to bug him about this year. Matt is one of the early Google folks and arguably the most knowledgeable search expert in the world since he’s one of the few people who knows the Google algorithm inside out. Matt’s actually listed on the key Google search patent.
Today I noticed that Matt’s post about Google Chrome is near the top at Techmeme after some early reports suggested Google was going to nab all the info people created via use of the Chrome browser. Although I do not worry about Google stealing the content I create using their tools I was surprised in the discussion at Matt’s blog to see how people probably do not understand how much of your data from searches, emails, and other online tools is analyzed by search engines, ISPs, and probably at least a few government agencies. I wrote over there:
Well, I’m sure folks like Marshall knew that Google was not out to steal content. What people should be as concerned about is how the Chrome datastream will be processed now and over time, and how open will it be to examination by companies for advertising purposes ? Personally I’m OK with that but I think many people are not, and the lack of transparency in this area bothers me.
Somebody even suggested I was foolish to think they’d use Chrome data to target advertising, to which I replied:
Josh - you are naive to assume Google does so little with the search term data they explicitly say they have the right to collect. In Gmail, for example, some portion of your header is read by Google (probably just the title and not the content) so that ads can be targeted to you on those topics. Google Toolbar collects a lot of information and my understanding this helps target PPC advertisements though I’m not sure about that. As i noted I’m personally OK with this level of snooping, but I believe Google should make it much clearer what they do with the data they collect and probably also have options so users can delete any information they created - including their search streams - as they see fit.
Google’s “Google Chrome” Browser
Update: Google Chrome is now available. I’m only starting to test it but it seems very, very fast, intuitive, and impressive.
——– earlier ———–
Google will soon launch an internet browser in what promises to be one of the most significant online developments in some time. Based on the comic book intro they’ve used to warm up users to the new application, Google Chrome will effectively turn the browser into an operating system. Perhaps the most significant change is that Chrome will open new tabbed windows for each application it runs (much like MS Windows). This feature should help isolate problems during browsing and Google says it will create a superior environment for running the many embedded applications that are now part of a typical browsing session. I’m not clear yet if this is fundamentally different from opening several internet explorer or FireFox browser windows which is also fairly typical.
In any case Google’s entry into the browser market is likely to shake up the online landscape, where only FireFox and Microsoft IE Explorer have any significant market share at about 20% for FF and about 79% for Microsoft IE. Google promotions of Firefox have been largely responsible for it’s success, so it’ll be interesting to watch how this move affects the browser equation.
Browser software does not monetize directly, but since it is the gateway to the internet it’s a key part of the online revenue equation. Were it not for the antitrust lawsuits against Microsoft it is almost certain that MS would have a much greater search market share as they could have made it much more difficult for users to change their search choices and could have taken advantage of the integration of the browser and the Windows operating system. Thanks to the rules imposed in the Microsoft lawsuits and Google’s superior search, Google has been eating Microsoft’s search lunch for years. This move, unless it backfires, will consolidate Google’s search dominance at the expense of MS and to a much lesser extent Firefox, which is an open source non-profit but also makes tens of millions each year from Google search revenues which are likely to diminish as people move to Google Chrome.
Android operating system for Googley phones promises great innovation
Early reports are suggesting that the Android operating system will be very “developer friendly”. Android is promoted and supported by Google for the crop of new phones coming this fall. The OS will be very open for developers and robust, suggesting we’ll see a lot of great innovation in this space very soon, innovation that is consistent with Google’s very open architecture standards (except in search!)
Google Phone Coming Next Month
The Android Guys are reporting on the design of the Google Phone from T Mobile and it’s looking pretty impressive. They also link to a spec sheet showing the phone will have a sizeable screen, pull out keyboard, 3 megapixel camera, and more.
I’m glad to have been correct to suggest the phone would make it out before next year and expect this to be a very popular 2008 Christmas Gift, even if the pricing is higher than I expect which is $150-$250 or perhaps even less to undercut the Apple iPhone market.
This earlier-than-announced launch is probably very bad news for Sprint’s instinct and other smartphones, as it is likely that we’ll see the smartphones of choice become either Apple or Android based phones.
Google Dance 2008
The Google Dance Google Party at the Googleplex was great as usual, with excellent buffet BBQ, the most prized T-shirts in the business, and a lot more. Having trouble with Flickr uploader so I can’t put up all the photos I took yet but this really is a great event. It was fun this year to attend with my college bound son Ben and 4th one with my great pal John though I had to keep reminding Ben that Google is not your typical corporate environment, even in his chosen field of computer science. Of course he’s got four years to go and a lot’s going to happen in that time, though if the extravagance of the party and healthy conference booth attendance are any indication Google’s going to be the big player for some time.
Google Dance 2008
Originally uploaded by JoeDuck
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