Got Stats?
This is a cross posting of an article I wrote over at Technology Report about internet marketing:
One of the cornerstones of good internet marketing is knowing your statistics, and you’d think with all the elaborate, inexpensive and free measurement and analytical tools everybody would have a great sense of how their sites stack up to the competition.
But you’d be wrong.
In fact even many large companies are struggling with high quality analysis even as the tools get better and the measures s-l-o-w-l-y are reaching some level of standardization. For most small companies metrics are, literally, more misses than “hits”. Webmasters routinely report or misinterpret or misrepresent website “hits” as viable traffic when hits often are simply a measure of the number of total files downloaded from the site. Graphics or data intensive websites can see hundreds of hits from a single web visitor.
Even when the analysis is good the reporting is often opportunistic or manipulative, and it’s often done by the same team that is accountable for the results. This is a common problem throughout the business metrics field. Executives are well advised to have independent auditing of results by unbiased parties for any business critical measurements.
Consider learning and using analysis packages like Google Analytics – a brilliantly robust and free tool provided by Google to anyone.
A while back Peter Norvig, one of the top search experts over at Google (also a leading world authority on Artificial Intelligence), published a little study indicating how unreliable the Alexa Metrics were with regard to website traffic. (Thanks to Matt Cutts for pointing out the Peter paper.
The results here demonstrates that Alexa is off by a factor of 50x (ie an error of five thousand percent!) when comparing Matt Cutts’ and Peter’s site traffic.
Although this is just an anecdotal snapshot indicating the problem, and perhaps Alexa is better now, I’d also noted many problems with comparisons of Alexa to sites where I knew the real traffic. 50x seems to be a spectacular level of error for sites read mostly by technology sector folks. It even suggests that Alexa may be a questionable comparison tool unless there is abundant other data to support the comparison, in which case you probably don’t need Alexa anyway.
Of course the very expensive statistics services don’t fare all that well either. A larger, and excellent comparison study by Rand Fishkin over at SEOMOZ collected data from several prominent sites in technology, including Matt Cutts’ blog, and concluded that no metrics were reasonably in line with the actual log files. Rand notes that he examined only about 25 blogs so the sample was somewhat small and targeted, but he concludes:
Based on the evidence we’ve gathered here, it’s safe to say that no external metric, traffic prediction service or ranking system available on the web today provides any accuracy when compared with real numbers.
It’s interesting how problematic it’s been to accurately compare what is arguably the most important aspect of internet traffic – simple site visits and pageviews. Hopefully as data becomes more widely circulated and more studies like these are done we may be able to create some tools that allow quick comparisons. Google Analytics is coming into widespread use but Fishkin told me at a conference that even that “internal metrics” tool seemed to have several problems when compared with the log files he reviewed. My own experience with Analytics have not been extensive but the data seems to line up with my log stats and I’d continue to recommend this excellent analytics package.
Wave!
Stumbled on this great collage of videos from French lighthouses during storms.
I think one of them is La Jument, which is where the most famous of all lighthouse wave pictures was taken some years ago showing the keeper standing outside of the doorway as a huge wave was about to engulf him. I just learned that the reason he opened the door was that he thought the chopper that took his picture was a rescue chopper enroute to pick him up. He did survive that wave. Click here for La Jument Pictures
Talent Oregon Coffee Shop Website Goes Live
My buddies over the Whistle Stop Coffee shop have a new website and this is a post to help them get indexed more quickly at Google. It’s a work in progress for them. Small business sites can take some time to get indexed partly because Google, IMHO, is not doing a very good job with the indexing of very fresh content. This is partly because spammers are overwhelming the internet with fake websites and junky content which mean Google waits for incoming links and other signs of authenticity before indexing new stuff.
However, for businesses like the Whistle Stop, it can some time to get incoming links. Hopefully this post will get them juiced up a bit since Google indexes this blog often and will follow the links out and “find” the new site.
Also important is to “claim” your business via Google’s small business service called “Google Local”. Instructions are here
It’s also a good idea, though a bit of a hassle, to create a sitemap for new websites – a list of pages that should be indexed. This can be done online at now cost via search for “free sitemap” services and then submit to Google at no charge via the webmaster console.
Anonymity is so … 1999
Hoping to start some discussion here about the role (if any!) for anonymity in online environments, especially when people are pitching sales or services. I’m starting to think I’m pretty much opposed to anonymous stuff in almost all circumstances because it fosters so many of the bad things in the online world, and helps in so few cases.
At Twitter on prominent guy was pitching for $50,000 in startup funding, then appeared to be retweeting his pitch via … at least one fake profile though I can’t be certain it was fake. However there’s enough deception now at Twitter that it requires almost as much skepticism as we have for bogus email scams. Skepticism is healthy and good but we need to *reduce it whenever possible* to create more effecient and safe business environments online. There is *FAR, FAR* too much tolerance of scammers in their various and sundry forms even as search engines work very hard to eliminate those who seek to manipulate their search rankings.
Tangential point here: Google – I’d argue very evil-y and non-Googley – worries far more about certain SEO tweaks that have little impact on users than they do about lying and cheating scammers who deceptively advertise using adwords. In fact we could not even resolve an issue a few years ago where our India Travel website was hacked and payments made to somebody else for adsense advertising. Google is a lot more interested in protecting their advertisers [cough Cash Cow cough] than protecting their publishers or their users. This point is so rock solid I’d like to debate it sometime with a Google person, for although I have a lot of respect for them in some areas I’m pretty much tired to death of the idea they don’t value advertising dollars above pretty much all else. There are now *thousands* of example of this. That kind of hubris very deservedly hurt Microsoft’s reputation and it’s starting to hurt Google’s too, though in fairness they are unlikely to *ever* reach the level of opportunism we saw with Microsoft products and services. In my book Google remains on balance “good guys” and are likely to stay that way – perhaps even as the competition from Bing.com and search upstarts heats up.
More on this Anonymity topic after the feedback here I’m hoping for…
Mark Cuban: Companies that Live by Free Stuff will Die by Free Stuff
The always clever, almost always insightful, and sometimes good dancer Mark Cuban has a great post today about “Freemium” companies. Cuban suggests:
Its not that they can’t make money offering free. They can , have and will. The problem is that they know that its literally impossible to be the king of the mountain forever. But that won’t stop them from trying. And that is exactly what will kill them.
Their better choice would be to run the company as profitably as possible, focusing only on those things that generate revenue and put cash in the bank. More importantly, when you see your BlackSwan company appear and you know they will kick your ass, rather than ramping up to try to compete, get out. Sell. Or maximize cash and pay your shareholders every penny you have.
Like every company in the free space, your lifecycle has come to its conclusion. Don’t fight it. Admit it. Profit from it.
I think Cuban is right on, though I think he’d also agree that most companies won’t take his advice, especially Google which stands to gain (but also lose) the most from maintaining their massive search revenue and general online dominance.
http://blogmaverick.com/2009/07/05/the-freemium-company-lifecycle-challenge/
ABC Search Affiliate Browser Hijack using abcjmp.com advertising
Update: The malware seems to be hitting affiliates other than the ABCSearch, making a bit stronger their claim of innocence in matters relating to browser hijacking.
Still, it would seem to me that these problems would disappear if every affiliate relationship was defined by a *real, verified person* and then ad companies were required to identify (to authorities AND to the hijack victim) the recipient of any advertising revenue generated by the hijack. This would put the pressure on the hijackers, not the victims.
NOTE: It’s not yet clear to me the indirect role that ABCSEARCH plays in this frustrating equation of a browser hijacking redirecting to ABC advertisers. It would seem they could police this activity better (as I think Google does with their adsense program).
I’m now struggling to remove a browser hijack routine where a spam affiiliate of ABCSEARCH is forwarding me to unwanted websites. I’m furious with ABCSEARCH for failing to provide me with *any* helpful information, most importantly the identification of the affiliate who is the recipient of this fake search traffic. ABC benefits from unwanted advertising and to some extent from this illegal activity and therefore is reluctant to lift the veil of secrecy that helps protect purveyors of unwanted advertising. That is outrageous of them.
(I’m on a Vaio Desktop running Windows XP)
I found the info (below)indicating many others have had similar problems with the ABC advertising network. Obviously they don’t directly support spammers but they *indirectly* support them by making it difficult to track down the offenders, some of whom are actually selling programs online that use a combination of infecting the computers with a browser hijack and ABC search ads.
When I figure out how to remove this ABCJMP ABCSEARCH spamming malware routine I’ll post it here. In the meantime please let me know if you have the same problem.
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What is abcjmp.com Abcjmp.com is owned and operated by ABCSearch.com, the world’s largest privately held pay per click advertising network. Advertisers come to ABCSearch to distribute their ads across our broad network of search partners and content sites. Abcjmp.com is used as our network referral ID to identify and qualify traffic sent by our traffic partners. Why am I seeing abcjmp.com on my computer? Because ABCSearch is comprised up of a network of thousands of traffic partners, one of these partners may have included you into their distribution network. If you have received any advertisements that contain the url abcjmp.com, it is important to understand that ABCSearch.com and the advertiser are not directly responsible for the advertisement you received through our partner distribution that contains the advertisement with abcjmp.com in the domain name. For Help Thank you, |
Future of Education Part II
In the coming years people are likely to experience the most profound transformation in all of history. The event is often called “The singularity” because it’s very hard to know what will happen after the the ongoing fast rise in machine intelligence fully surpasses human capabilities. Computers are very likely to become conscious and “recursively self improving”, allowing them to reinvent themselves as frequently as they choose in various forms.
Some interesting *current* developments along these lines are:
Singularity University in Silicon Valley – sponsored by Google and other tech leaders this school will teach about the sweeping changes coming as machine intelligence surpasses that of humans.
Synapse Project: This project was announced earlier this year is funded by the US Military’s DARPA division, which represents the best funded attempt to date to build a functional brain. The SyNAPSE initial goal is to design a working version of a mammalian brain. The approach differs from Blue Brain in that it’s largely based on finding a working “software solution” rather than using techniques to duplicate the brain’s hardware.
Future of Education Part I
My dad (a retired Education Professor from NY State) asked for my view on technology and education in 200 words so I thought I’d post it here too. Feel free to chime in with your views – I’d love to hear them and will pass along to dad, who is presenting education insights to his group:
Over the last 30 years it has been painful for me to watch how technology with all its wonderful educational potential has crept more than lept into the classroom. Even today, where most teachers are comfortable with technology in the classroom, students often remain more expert than teachers with computers.
However on the bright side of the education equation there are many remarkable new technologies and approaches to education that will gradually provide students with richer, more interactive, more international, less expensive, and higher quality forms of education.
Many innovations have already made their way into classrooms including games to help with all subjects, Google search to help children find topics, read news, track down information for reports, and more. Academics now routinely use the internet to research and report more effectively. Many then blog their findings and opinions, leading to a rich interactive experience that helps to blur the often unnecessary lines drawn between classroom and real world or between teacher and student.
The most exciting example I have seen of a very innovative approach under development uses broadband internet, specialized projectors, regular video cameras, a special type of wall sized screen, and microsoft surface computing software. The system will allow groups of children from two different classrooms in different countries to interact in real time as if they were looking at each other through a transparent wall. Even the language barrier can be overcome using translation software so students in China or Europe could join with a class in the USA to learn and share cultural insights or any comments.
Social Word of Mouth Marketing
As social networking explodes on the scene I’m wondering about legitimate vs questionable marketing tactics that involve one’s social network. Here at the JoeDuck blog I’ve avoided advertising (though I have taken a few liberties with posts that help rank other sites or promote friends, etc).
At my commercial sites I’m more aggressive with advertising and find it’s very hard to decide what levels of advertising are best suited to all the factors that come into play such as generating revenue, being honest, keeping Google happy, etc. Although I increasingly buy into the idea that “user friendliness” is a good guideline I don’t think it’s the best one from a revenue standpoint. Even Google, which I think built a grand online empire partly on the basis of limiting the advertisements around search, has very gradually increased the aggressiveness of their advertising at some “user centric” expense such as the ads that appear on top of the organic listings. Although Google insists they are clear about identifying advertising the proof is in the perception and many people still do not understand the difference between clicks when Google is getting paid and when they are not.
I don’t object to Google’s current standards which I think are more than reasonable, though it’s always annoying to hear them pretend (or think delusionally) that their only consideration is optimizing the *user experience* without regard to revenues. That would not be good business and arguably would deprive them of revenue they can use to provide the raft of great free services we enjoy from Google like blogger, search, mail, maps, and more.
But the real point here is to find a balance between social networking and marketing. I certainly don’t want to pester people with advertising after they have nicely come to Twitter or the blog to “interact” about politics, technology, or travel. But are there appropriate advertisements that do not offend people?
More importantly, how should one handle paid or unpaid endorsements of businesses? Over at Technology-Report we are now sponsored by Ipswitch Imail Server, an Enterprise email system. What’s really intriguing me is at what point one crosses the line between using and abusing the relationship you have with people to promote your business “allies”. The link I just provided helps them. I think that’s fine but some might say it’s using the blog inappropriately. Adding “nofollow” to the link would tell Google not to consider the link as an endorsement of the company but I’m happy to endorse them – they are smart enough to sponsor our Tech blog so they must be good, right?
I think the best working rule here at the blog is transparency, where people know the money relationships between you and those you talk about. For stocks I use a disclosure blip, for companies an explanation of the relationship. However for websites I’m not as transparent and I think I need to reconsider that and provide more disclosure than I have in the past to help combat the growing “economy of lies” that is far more pervasive than we tend to think.
From bank lending and “promotional offers” with fine print that traps even savvy borrowers to blatant phone credit card ripoffs that prey on the gullible to the Madoff stock scandal to bogus “get rich quick” training programs, the “economy of lies” is everywhere. Online, it becomes even more difficult to check credentials and make sure an offer is real.
Then there are the “somewhat misleading special offers” which I think may be impossible or even undesirable to combat. For example I’m shopping for Las Vegas hotels, flights, and show tickets and notice there are often dozens of offers for the same rooms, each with different rates. Although the conditions vary a bit, basically these are marketing experiments designed to optimize revenues and collect information for the future. Not perfectly “honest”, but not scams. I’ll talk about this more at my Las Vegas Travel blog. Hey, see, there’s a tiny SEO helpful pitch for my own site – is that legitimate?
An interesting idea – though bureaucracy alerts are kind of sounding for me now – might be to create some sort of volunteer disclosure standard that was monitored by a third party. For example no site could endorse more than one product of the same kind. Sites that abided by those rules would be listed and allowed to slap up a logo, those that did not would not. Policing this probably could be done via an online “complaint” system, and the neat part would be to help screen out the huge number of junky sales sites that have no content of value and offer dubious offers.
Still, that option does not really seem workable on a grand scale because too few would participate.
WordCamp at Mission Bay Conference Center, San Francisco UCSF

missionbaywp
Originally uploaded by JoeDuck
Live from San Francisco it’s the WordCamp San Francisco. Tim Ferris is giving an excellent presentation about his blogging adventures. He’s quite the SEO expert as are many people who do not bill themselves as SEO experts. (where those who DO often are NOT).
Matt Mullenweg introduced the event and will speak later. Matt Cutts from Google is up next. Over 700 registrants per WordPress.
Kudos so far to the WordPress gang for a really well run show – smoother than many conferences that cost much more.
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