Joe Duck

Have Blog. Will Travel.

Singularity Spark

I’m sure anxious for Ray Kurzweil to hurry up and finish his film “The Singularity is Near” based on his remarkable book of a few years ago because I think the film will spark the global conversation we need to have about the Singularity.    If even the most modest predictions about this even come true it will be the most significant development in the history of humanity, and will reshape our lives and the future of earth in unimaginable ways.   

I am less optimistic than Kurzweil about the time frame and impact of what he sees as a likely explosion of ”cosmic intelligence” that rapidly expands throughout the universe,  but I think the notion we will NOT see any conscious computers within 10-15 years is pessimistic and perhaps even naive, resting mostly on the notion that the human intellect is a lot more profound than … it appears to be.

Once self-awareness develops in machines the possibilities are literally endless for the future of humanity.  

An alternative to the “Singularity, Wow!” perspective is offered by brain researcher Edward Boyden who wonders about the role of motivation in the coming crop of artificial intelligences:

Indeed, a really advanced intelligence, improperly motivated, might realize the impermanence of all things, calculate that the sun will burn out in a few billion years, and decide to play video games for the remainder of its existence, concluding that inventing an even smarter machine is pointless.

More from Ed here

Clever writing aside, I think the last thing we need to worry about is motivating the coming AIs.   On the contrary it would seem logical for a self- aware machine with the speed to think billions of times faster than humans to explore (or to use a non-motivated term “analyze”) millions, billions, and trillions of alternatives nearly *simultaneously*.  Unlike the human brain, which has been tuned by the s-l-o-w process of evolution to be slow and very selective and not very efficient, the machine cognition will at the very least be extremely fast and able to process billions of scenarios in very short time frames.    It seems reasonable – in fact inevitable – that at  least a few of those will involve human-like emotional structure and motivation.  Thus even if *most* of the AIs do as Boyd suggests they might and sit on a virtual couch eating virtual potato chips and playing games, some of the others will reinvent humanity in a spectacular way.

Count me in.

Both DARPA SyNAPSE and Blue Brain represent promising approaches to establishing conscious or “self aware” computers, which many believe are the first step to the Singularity.

September 12, 2009 Posted by JoeDuck | not yet categorized | | 2 Comments

Wave!

Stumbled on this great collage of videos from French lighthouses during storms.

I think one of them is La Jument,  which is where the most famous of all lighthouse wave pictures was taken some years ago showing the keeper standing outside of the doorway as a huge wave was about to engulf him.    I just learned that the reason he opened the door was that he thought the chopper that took his picture was a rescue chopper enroute to pick him up.    He did survive that wave.     Click here for La Jument Pictures

August 25, 2009 Posted by JoeDuck | not yet categorized | , , | 2 Comments

Hardbat Classic – Nice Video Summary with Biba Golic

Here’s a very quick summary of the Hardbat Classic Table Tennis Tournament that just ended in Las Vegas.

June 30, 2009 Posted by JoeDuck | Las Vegas, hardbat classic, table tennis | | No Comments Yet

Future of Education Part I

My dad  (a retired Education Professor from NY State) asked for my view on technology and education in 200 words so I thought I’d post it here too.  Feel free to chime in with your views – I’d love to hear them and will pass along to dad, who is presenting education insights to his group:

Over the last 30 years it has been painful for me to watch how technology with all its wonderful educational potential has crept more than lept into the classroom. Even today, where most teachers are comfortable with technology in the classroom, students often remain more expert than teachers with computers.

However on the bright side of the education equation there are many remarkable new technologies and approaches to education that will gradually provide students with richer, more interactive, more international, less expensive, and higher quality forms of education.

Many innovations have already made their way into classrooms including games to help with all subjects, Google search to help children find topics, read news, track down information for reports, and more. Academics now routinely use the internet to research and report more effectively.  Many then blog their findings and opinions, leading to a rich interactive experience that helps to blur the often unnecessary lines drawn between classroom and real world or between teacher and student.

The most exciting example I have seen of a very innovative approach under development uses broadband internet, specialized projectors, regular video cameras, a special type of wall sized screen, and microsoft surface computing software. The system will allow groups of children from two different classrooms in different countries to interact in real time as if they were looking at each other through a transparent wall. Even the language barrier can be overcome using translation software so students in China or Europe could join with a class in the USA to learn and share cultural insights or any comments.

June 6, 2009 Posted by JoeDuck | not yet categorized | , | 1 Comment

Microsoft’s Vision of 2019

Thanks to Long Zheng for this post at his blog “istartedsomething.com” about a couple of Microsoft Videos showcasing the MS vision of gadgets and interactions in the future.   The shorter video is neat but it was a sequence in the long one that really, REALLY got my attention.    Using surface computing (which is already a robust application), on a transparent wall, two kids in classrooms thousands of miles away from each other were reacting in real time and in *different languages* as their voices were translated instantly for the other student.    The technology driving this application is pretty much here now although I think there’d be some challenges making it work as fast as in the video, but  this is the kind of stuff that is so provocative, powerful, and cool that it brings a technology teardrop to my eye.

In a world challenged so dramatically by a combination of ignorance and misunderstanding, how much progress could we make with technologies like this that cross connect people and cultures almost seamlessly?      Obviously we have a long way to go and this is technology for the rich folks among those in our global family, but as these technologies penetrate into affluent or lucky schools the appeal and testing will continue until we can have much wider distribution.

http://www.istartedsomething.com/20090228/microsoft-office-labs-vision-2019-video/

April 10, 2009 Posted by JoeDuck | CES 2009, Globalization, companies, computers, microsoft, technology | , , | No Comments Yet

Obama: We are Bound by a Common Humanity

Here in the USA many amazing social and financial experiments are underway.    President Obama’s approach to international diplomacy really impresses me, and I’m convinced it will impress the overwhelming majority of the world’s people who, like us, want peace and prosperity especially for their children.

It’s not naive to believe that dialog and engagement are more strategic than warfare and violence.    I’m all for keeping a big stick handy if the bad guys threaten your family or your country,  but it is interesting to me that some Americans seem to think diplomacy is a waste of time when it’s better perceived as an extremely cost effective and strategic alternative to violence.

The world is an increasingly complex and interconnected place, and clearly we need to shoot *last* and ask questions and engage people *right now*.   President Obama’s appointment of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State was a great move in that direction, and videos like the one sent to the people of Iran help make it clear to our friends around the world that we are …. their friend around the world.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/Nowruz/

March 28, 2009 Posted by JoeDuck | Globalization, obama | , | 7 Comments

John Stewart Hates Twitter?!

Hey, John Stewart *hates* Twitter, falling for the correct but misguided criticism that  “it is superficial” .   News flash John – try watching your own network.   OF COURSE TWITTER IS SUPERFICIAL – that’s why it’s exploding in usage!

Let’s see how long Stewart can dodge the Twitter bullet that is becoming almost an essential piece of the interactive media landscape.

I’m having trouble embedding the Daily Show Video because the Daily Show and Viacom are not hip enough to allow YouTube to run these, giving them far more advertising and exposure than they get by restricting the clips to their own site. However, here’s the link if the videos does not appear below:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=219519&title=twitter-frenzy

March 16, 2009 Posted by JoeDuck | entertainment, twitter | , , | 1 Comment

The Social Networking Generation(s) enter online “adolescence”

Although Social Networking has been around for some time it has not seen anything like the widespread use until fairly recently.     Where technologists and early adopters are trying to figure out the importance of the  Twitter explosion to the social networking landscape, millions of regular folks are just now starting to come to grips with how social media is changing our relationships and our personal identities in ways we’re only beginning to understand.

Peggy Orenstein has a thoughtful article at the New York Times today about the how Facebook social networking has affected her and also her concerns about how it will change the way kids grow up.    She notes how a Facebooker’s post of a picture of her at 16, and her own Facebook account, brought up many items from her past, even including what appeared to be an inappropriate encounter with a high school teacher who now wants to be a Facebook friend.

She asks:

As a survivor of the postage-stamp era, college was my big chance to doff the roles in my family and community that I had outgrown, to reinvent myself, to get busy with the embarrassing, exciting, muddy, wonderful work of creating an adult identity. Can you really do that with your 450 closest friends watching, all tweeting to affirm ad nauseam your present self?

The answer, as anybody who has been socially networking for long knows, is “sure, Peggy, no problem”.      I’d argue that the benefits of what we might call socially “‘transparent living” probably far outweigh the costs, though it’ll be years before we understand how all of this will shake out.     From a sociological point of view the most intriguing aspect to me is that the technologies are allowing us to expand our “social networks” well beyond the limits that nature intended.

Evolution works too slowly to anticipate most technological changes so our “tribal” genetics has prepared us well to deal with “hundreds” of personal associations rather than the “thousands” we have with even a modest level of socializing online.      I suppose you could argue that a “letter to the editor” in a local paper reaches thousands of people, and in this case can even label you for some time depending on how you express your concerns, but most people don’t write these letters where even in rural communities there are many thousands of people using social networks, creating huge numbers of individual interactions every day.

If biological and social evolution really do limit us to only about 150 close personal associations as some have suggested we’ll probably see that social networks will eventually sort of “implode” as people reduce their connections to more manageable numbers of friends.  However I don’t really see this – my guess is that we’ll see humans expand their numbers of  contacts well beyond the 150 number, reaching a new plateau that will likely be defined as much by our personal history of real associations as by any biological limits.    In fact there’s a lot for the Facebooks and Twitters of the world to do to make it easier to manage our growing social networks, and I’d guess we’ll soon see a lot more slicing and dicing of contacts than we have to date into “close friends”, “family”, “business associates”, etc.    As in real life we’ll eventually want to control access to our information from different groups in several ways.

Another intriguing aspect of social networking is what we might call the Social Networking  “all your base are belong to us“  problem.    Even if a person despises the internet, social interaction, and everything technological they are already likely to appear in some internet venues and will eventually appear in many social networks.    Phone records, your home and real estate, business associations and records, permits, and most importantly photographs and videos are flowing online at a rate of billions and billions of bytes per second.    This information is increasingly  “tagged” by people you may not even know with information about you, usually without your consent or even your knowledge.    Reclusive old curmudgeons beware – you could be all over the place in no time by simply owning a home or phone or  attending a family function, Community BBQ, or Shriner’s parade.

Assume that a person on Facebook or Twitter has 200 people who read about them and who they read about.     Assuming each person in this network creates a *single item* for *private* review – a photo or short comment.    This small level of activity – under a minute of action per person – in one sense explodes to generate 200 x 200=40,000 different personal interactions.      Although obviously every participant won’t review every possible interaction which would not be possible without a rash of exploding heads, the total amount of interactions in the total  Social-Network-O-Sphere is, literally, mind boggling.

How this will affect our feeble human condition?    I don’t know, but you can bet your Twitter we’ll all be dealing with it for some time.

March 15, 2009 Posted by JoeDuck | Science & Technology, Web 2.0, internet, technology, twitter | , , , , , | 1 Comment

Marissa Mayer on Charlie Rose

Marissa Mayer on Charlie Rose. Two of my favorite people at the same time!

Mayer is one of a handful of people who drive many key online innovations as a result of her role at Google. Mayer’s background at Stanford is in AI, and it is very clear that she will remain a key player for many years in the technological changes now sweeping over the legacy industrial landscape.

March 6, 2009 Posted by JoeDuck | Artificial Intelligence, Google | , , | No Comments Yet

DOW 7000: It is almost over

Update:  Monday’s brought the DOW near 6800.  Could I have been too optimistic?

Sure it’s presumptuous for me to think I can call the DOW low at 7000 even though I said so back in November, and sure you’d be foolish to believe me more than you believe anybody else or any other source. But you’d also be foolish to believe that *anybody* can call these shots. Even the market makers fail *routinely* to offer much insight into the process and the CNBC pundits and analysts have a very consistent pattern of performance = market averages.

Many people use a backtracking analysis or cherry picking to “prove” they or others have insights you can’t get otherwise, but this is meaningless, in some ways analogous to “predicting” I can toss a coin 10 heads in a row, then videotaping myself tossing the coin 1000 times during which I’ll have some 10 heads runs, and then showing people only the 10 heads segment. Although my prediction power in this case is *random* and can be duplicated by anybody, a gullible person would watch my videotape and think I’ve got insight I don’t have.

So, is it impossible to predict the future? Certainly we can predict many things with some accuracy. Bank accounts and certificate of deposit returns are predictable, solid, safe (and thus tend to be lower than riskier investments) and there are obviously “good deals” in real estate and business, esp. when you are looking at local circumstances with which you are familiar.

Yet like most people I flatter myself and think I as Joe Duck have better insights than that foolish old “Joe Sixpack”. However even if that is true those insights do not necessarily translate into stock or other profits, and as I become more experiences watching the world and watching markets I’m increasingly convinced that the best way to make money is to avoid individual stock picking or even stay away from the stock market altogether, choosing to invest in “close to home” projects such as local real estate and perhaps friends who you know and trust (unless of course the conversation goes along these lines: Bernie! How are you doing? What, you need me to loan you money and order you a plane ticket online?

Of course if I’m right that we are now pretty much at the lows for most of the three major indexes, and that the market is correctly assuming that the stimulus spending will be kicking in after a few months to stabilize the economy, then it’s probably a good time to take a stake in America with some form of index investing. A lot of folks seem to be advising this is a fine time to “get into” this market though of course these are the same folks who failed to call the huge declines. I wish I had time to create a “hall of shame” for any financial pundit who did not scream out “irrational exhuberance” at least a dozen times in the last decade. Oh, wait, that’s easy – put *every financial pundit in the USA* in the hall of shame.

February 27, 2009 Posted by JoeDuck | stocks | , | 68 Comments