John Battell is wondering if Facebook might even reject a 6 billion dollar offer given how high they are flying these days. I’m trying to read between his sarcasm but he seems to think they’d (foolishly) reject it. I’m guessing the big money Facebook buyout buzz may be a little more opportunistic and that they’d love an offer like that, playing hard to get just long enough to firm it up. I would have to admit being *very wrong* to suggest they should have taken the billion from Yahoo last year. Facebook is probably not even worth that, but they can get more easily now due to the buzz of irrational exhuberance.
Recommendation to FB: Take the 6 billion and laugh all the way to the bank.
Recommendation to MS: Don’t spend this you fools!
Companies with the biggest buzz (YouTube, Facebook) have what appear to be extraordinary buyout valuations that are not consistent with their profitability or what even seems like a realistic, risk adjusted long term analysis.
Why? Market movers as players combine with speculative frenzy and lead many to assume they’ll get out before things change. It’s more like casino thinking than Warren Buffet thinking. Big players like Google and MS can afford to make what I think they’d see as “strategic” high offers but what a reasoned analysis suggests are foolish bets.
Lots of this happened in late 90s and only a handful of the players are left standing, most at a small fraction of their values at the pinnacle of *that* irrational exhuberance.