OK, so now TechCrunch is reporting that their secret source informs them that Amazon has sold 240k Kindles in less than a year. That would be pretty good though it does not lead me to retract my May suggestion that the analysis by Citbank is bogus.
In that analyis Mark Mahaney suggested that the Kindle would sell only 189k units in 2008 but then blow the lid off with sales in 2010 of 2.2 million. That key part of the analysis – huge sales after modest early adoption – still seems unlikely to me, though I might be swayed to Kindle mania if the sales trend over the past months was clearly up. That would indicate enough consumer satisfaction to suggest they might become a gadget of choice with enough mainstream adoption to see the huge profitability projected by Citibank. Hey, on the internet anything is possible.