You’ve lost some weight!
Given the prevalence of planets, water, and our own observations in our solar system, I think there is a near certainty (99%+ likelihood) that there is plenty of intelligent life in the universe.
In fact I’d guess the universe is *teeming* with life – at least billions of planets with intelligent life and probably hundreds of billions.
If you simply assume there is a *single planet with intelligent life* in each of the 100 billion galaxies in the observable universe it suggests we have a *lot* of company. Although we only have a single data point (= ourselves), it seems we should also assume that we are about in the median range of the intelligent life spectrum, meaning that about half of the life in the universe is smarter than us and half is …. dumber.
But I would assert that Aliens probably wouldn’t bother to visit earth because we are at the edge of the galaxy and we are probably not very interesting once you have advanced technologies that can simulate almost all aspects of reality. What would they come here looking for?
Also, they would likely not visit un organic “bodies”, rather as automated devices. The idea that Aliens visit earth, interact with people and thus appear not to have a “no interference” policy, and then leave without saying official “hello” or making their presence broadly known is very questionable.
If they have a no interference policy we’d never detect them. On the other hand if they allow some interaction why would they probe a few lonely lumberjacks deep in the woods and then leave? In the case of the Roswell incident you seriously think they have technology that allows an organic being to travel *quadrillions of miles* over a likely period of *millions of years* only to run out of gas and crash?
Whoops, ET didn’t have a quarter to phone home for a tow – BAM !
I think there’s a tiny possibility we’ve been visited, but a much higher one that people imagine things and use silly, obvious hoax stuff to spur interest.
Visits and Alien existence are totally different issues. Of course Aliens are very, very, very likely to exist but there is pretty much zero credible evidence they ever come here.
The technology to travel here by organic beings would be incredibly advanced. If they wanted to “hide” they would have no trouble hiding and erasing all evidence we have of their visits. If they wanted us to know they were out there they could take over the network and simply announce their presence. Niether of those happen. Instead, we have thousands of obviously bogus reports and a handful of seemingly credible people who have odd experiences they think come from Aliens. Whenever I look into these they are incredibly weak. No quality photos, no souvenirs, no Alien DNA or probes left in bodies. You have to believe the Aliens do an incredible cleanup job but then leave sloppy, inconclusive pieces of evidence around in a haphazard way. Sure, it’s possible those little items are evidence of alien visits but reason suggests that instead we are seeing yet another example of … mistaken impressions.
You can think the tiny number of credible people misinterpreted things as we humans are prone to do, or you can believe the Aliens allowed those guys to interact with them and only them.
But hey, maybe distinguished astronaut Edgar Mitchell, who believes the Government is covering up the Alien visits, is right: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edgar_Mitchell