Dave Winer over at the Scripting News has a geatpost today about why technology innovation tends to cycle through generations of programmers. As old approaches become inadequte new folks come online and change the game, leading to a new cycle.
I think Dave is describing a very important aspect of how technology changes, especially online. There are exceptions of course but he has described in very simple terms why so much technology innovation tends to cycle as it does, moving forward in spurts rather than gradually.
I agree with Dave that we are approaching the end / beginning of such a cycle – though I think in this case it’ll be
more based on a lack of capital that will chase away the old guard than other pressures. I’d also suggest the pressure will be to make the internet and websites and applications themselves mostly transparent to the overall information landscape.
Ideally we are simply *connected*, sharing information (with some limits that we control) seamlessly across all the devices we use and not just with “friends” but with everybody else who might be interested.