The Berkeley Earth Project is a very ambitious attempt to accurately assess the state of “Global Warming” in a very systematic and scientific way, free from the many biases, politics, and advocacy challenges that have arguably plagued the process to date. Preliminary findings are just out here a bit prematurely, as the director of the project Muller recently testified to the US Congress: http://berkeleyearth.org/Resources/Muller_Testimony_31_March_2011
Note that the results here are based on 2% sample they are using to validate their methods before they apply that method to the entire set of some 1.6 billion temperature records, a project that they maintain (and I agree) will result in the best measure to date of global temperature change.
Not surprisingly the 2% looks a lot like the temperature record we see from the major measurers of such things – CRU in England and NASA in the USA. My gut expectation about the final record is that it will reflect a slight decrease in observed warming along with a significant, though modest, increase in the “uncertainty” of such measurements. Why? That finding would be very consistent with the fact that most of the climate scientists are doing excellent work that is good and only very slightly compromised by the alarmist bent. That bent can’t change the data but I think it has inclined those – particularly in Paleodendrochronology – to view questionable assumptions by other scientists too sympathetically. Sort of a “circling of the wagons” has happened as tree ring science emerged from almost total obscurity to the single most important “climate signal” in the global warming controversies. The politics and alarmism and advocacy have very unfortunately led to some questionable interpretations and assumptions despite the obvious which are nearly rock solid findings of a global temperature rise over the last century.
Berkeley Earth is a great approach and I’m anxious to see how their transparent and hopefully unimpeachable methodology will shed light on global warming / climate change issues.
P.S. IMHO 1.there is slight global warming, 2. it’s mostly human caused, 3. it’s not going to hurt much and 4. (most importantly) YOU (and I, and even the most fervent alarmist) are almost completely unwilling to do the things needed to change our warming prospects enough that it would make more than a trivial difference in the scheme of things. If you travel much via planes or cars, keep your house between 65 and 85 degrees, fail to retrofit much of your life to save energy, etc, etc, etc then you are THE PROBLEM and you are NOT PART OF THE “SOLUTION”. Sorry, but you won’t change and many of you won’t even build nuclear power plants – part of the no-brainer solution to energy needs.
Interesting looking project but some have raised concerns over the funding, which includes a donation from the dastardly…Koch bros.
That said, Prof. Muller seems to suggest that some skepticism of the official line of AGW (if not….a great deal) is warranted.
I really think people fret too much over funding and too little over methodology and transparency. You can pretty much fault any funding source – e.g. if their bank is B of A there’s a connection to a shareholder who is connected to terrorism or whatever. In science we should focus on guilt by bad methods or math, not by associations…
Yes, the research is primary but bias may be a consideration at some point–sort of like noting that some GOP politician takes in a lot of money from tobaccoo or casinos, and then votes against no-smoking areas, or anyone who dares to question legalized gambling.
Quite a few AGW skeptics claim bias on the part of Gore/IPCC–ie skewing for more funds, etc–and the global warming people claim bias on the part of Big Oil. Tit for tat.
Now back to American Duck Idol! Aerosmith medley or Pia? “Ah’m… BACK….back in the saddle again……
jlo! is scaerd!pia will take her fame!with the power jlo has she did know pia was the best singer? J is one of the best movie”star and she can kik ass! dancing! but she can’t sing and 60%of america is tone death! cause pia poor baby is truly a winner!it is up to the expert’s i hope that some one see’s her talent and and beauty! and make her the biggest!
p.s. if james or the cowboy that sang elvis song! i mean this kid woke! up the spirit of a man that was big big! i was so happy! and proud! of him i will buy his elvis song”s or any song”s he reacord”s he is great dont let him go! please! it would be nice to have elvis alive!! but we got this kid that get’s close to the “king”if they dont winn american idol suck’s james or little elvis! pia is going to be big! she already is dude’s
Thanks, but best to comment this over at the Pia Toscana blog post: https://joeduck.com/2011/04/07/pia-toscano-leaves-american-idol/
Mueller’s research–funded in part by the Koch Bros, notoriously anti-AGW — has created a bit of a stir:
At least the consensus on the temp-data seems to have been settled (what Watts was demanding–showing consistency between locations,etc): the temp. rise is…. anomalous