Showdown at the Yahoo Corral Coming August 1


Carl Icahn and Microsoft appear to be coordinating an attack on the current Yahoo board with today’s joint announcements by Icahn and a Microsoft stating they are ready to do a major deal with Yahoo.    The animosity towards Microsoft is conspicuous given that one can reasonably argue (I would) that Microsoft remains pretty generous all things considered.   They appear to comfortable with a share price in the same neighborhood of the $33 that Yahoo rejected months ago, despite the fact that shareholder discontent with Yahoo’s price and board combined with continued US economic concerns would arguably support a somewhat lower valuation.

In this corporate showdown at the Yahoo Corral  I think Jerry Yang and David Filo have drawn the unfortunate roles of Billy Clanton and Frank McLaury

I got a huge kick out of Kara Swisher’s disturbing picture of the corporate death match:

… another boost today with a classic wrestling double-body slam that Icahn and Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer perpetrated on Yang today by unveiling their own dysfunctional love match–united in hatred of current Yahoo leadership.

I think however that Kara is very wrong to suggest that Icahn toppling the Yahoo board is “unlikely”.   Most of the small shareholders do not have the vested interest in the company of a Yang or Filo and are likely to support Icahn.   More importantly, I think that Yang has lost what appeared to be a sort of hypnotic impact  on some of the existing board members and large shareholders and even if they are not stating this publicly I’m fairly confident they’ll be voting for Icahn in August.    For small investors it is painful to turn away a 50%+ boost in share value – for big investors it could spell their eventual ruin.     With billions at stake I think the predictive model here is fairly simple:   Yahoo will be sold either in part or whole to Microsoft at a share price of about $34.     I’ve been saying this for some time and see nothing to suggest it’s not going to happen in August- just a bit later than a rational market model would have suggested because egos and exaggerations, and the legendary Silicon Valley v. Microsoft animosity got in the way.

Disclosure: I’m Long on Yahoo

Judge to Google: YouTubers Will Be Viacommed


There is a lot of blogOspheric gnashing of virtual teeth at today’s Viacom v. Google decision that is telling Google to release the YouTube clip watching histories of all users to Viacom as part of Viacom’s efforts to demonstrate that much of the activity at YouTube is infringing on their rights.

All I can say is people better get used to this type of decision. Contrary to most of the foolish drivel that passes as analysis of the current state of digital rights, the fact is that until *laws are changed* the courts are going to continue to be very sympathetic to the obvious – there’s a whole lot of copying going on here.

Most people like to confuse what the law *should be*, which is far more tolerant of most regular uses of online material, with what the law *is*, which is very protective of the rights of a big business to protect a intellectual property.

What we see now is a clash between the lax enforcement of many copyright violations and the assumption by onliners that this meant there were *no violations*. When it becomes mainstream practice to break the law (e.g. copy music for distribution rather than backups, drive 60 MPH in a 55 zone, etc) this does not mean the law has changed!) It may suggest the law needs revision, but it does not reasonably support the idea that the law no longer applies.

Napster’s sad experience should have been a wake up call to those who think

More bad news for Startups and Venture Capitalists


More bad news for Startups and Venture Capitalists from the New York Times “bits” section about technology trends.    Not only is the number of IPOs falling (zero in Q2 of 2008), but it also the number of mergers or aquisitions of startups appears to be way off as well.

Venture capital folks look to the most favorable “liquidity event” and generally that is an IPO where they may realize tens or even hundreds of times their original investments.    Also favorable though generally offering less profit than an IPO is an aquisition or merger where other companies take over the startup without it going public.

I found this number very interesting and potentially alarming for Venture investors:  An average of 8.6 years from startup to IPO, the longest in some time.    Given that the present value of money is greater than future value, time horizons this long suggest, for example, that even a doubling of your VC money over that long period of time would represent only a “fair to poor” return compared to alternatives.   Given that most startups never go IPO anyway it would seem that the risk factor is going way up for these investments.

Twitter worth 1 billion in a year? No, make that 1.5 billion? Only in Silicon Alley.


With apologies to Nate who sounds like a sharp and nice guy….

Today’s “only in the Silly Silicon Alley” post comes from Nate who is a new entrepreneur in residence at Rose and therefore really deserves more respect I suppose, but his idea, parroted over at Silicon Alley Insider sure sounds dumb to me – too dumb in fact to make it through the Silicon *Valley* peer review needed since the most important Twitter folks…live there.    Nate is seriously suggesting that Twitter could be quickly turned into a payment system which would immediately gain widespread use and respect in the tech community and thanks to all that use would give Twitter a valuation of … wait for it …  ON BILLION DOLLARS!  Just a moment, just a moment…. over at his own blog Nate’s making that valuation 1.5 billion.   Hey, what’s half a billion in the bubble economy, anyway?

The idea is, I suppose, OK as an out of the box thinking experiment, and it’s true people would jump from PayPal in a New York Minute because they are so usurous with fees, but I think it’s dumb for about a billion reasons.   Here are 3.5 of them:

* Nobody trusts Twitter to stay up, let alone handle their money, protect their checking accounts and credit cards, etc.

* Nobody sends a few bucks here and there very often –

* C’mon Nate, you can’t develop a billion dollar website 1.5 billion dollar website based on people sending a few bucks back and forth.

* The short symbolic chatter at Twitter will not be a comfortable way for most people to send money, even those that *are comfortable with* symbolic chatter.    Moving money is important and you want some checks and balances on your own quick activity.   Paypal has it’s problems, but it’s secure and intuitive for most transactions (though not all – I’d be thrilled to see some competition from Google checkout in this space).

Venture Capitalists: Not Gangsters, but Gamblers


Thanks to a very thoughtful comment by Fools Gold in an earlier post, I’m again really wondering about the math of the VC biz.    Venture Capital for startups appears to be a game that is generally misunderstood by most as a sort of insider mafia “cash machine” for the rich when I think the evidence would support the idea that startups are a losing bet on average and are for the most part the product of honest dealings rather than back room gangsterism.  

After a Don Dodge article I think it was Jeff Clavier who told me that only about a fourth of VC firms were delivering positive returns – that was about a year back I think and I know Jeff was doing very well with a lot of winners – he was NOT talking about his own great results.   Fred Wilson was also getting very positive returns for his firm, though I remember he was giving enough information about the time frames to get a good sense of how good the returns were.     A key filter of course is the fact that firms with negative returns are hardly going to be blogging much or advertising that fact.

How to derive valuations?  For new companies it is close to anybody’s guess.   I think the market makers are driving pricing in very unnatural ways that look more like casino gambling than thoughtful investment. As I’ve noted before most VCs actually appear to *lose* money on average.

The game is certainly not “rigged” the way many think it is and my working hypothesis is that VC for startups is sort of like Arabian horse farms – it loses money for most but is a very fun hobby for many who effectively build relationships and contacts that help maintain their wealth and control over things indirectly. Sounds ominous but this is actually a pretty functional environment because it keeps the best innovators well fed and productive even as their startups mostly fail at the expense of people who can afford to lose a few million here and there in exchange for the fun of an infrequent big payoff.

Google Trends: More Website Metrics Confusion


Fred Wilson has a fantastic post today discussing the critical subject of Website metrics, which remains one of the murkiest of online topics.    He compares reports from several services and concludes that Google Trends may be a lot like Alexa, which means not very helpful except in the most general of senses.

He also notes that Comscore has big challenges if the traffic is below 500k (visits per month I think), which I think would exclude about 99% of all websites from getting accurately measured since that is a large traffic level.

His advice?   Use lots of services and use caution when interpreting the numbers. 

Yahoo Needs Mark Cuban


Most of the commentary about Yahoo’s short term troubles has focused far too much on Yahoo’s short term troubles.

Danny Sullivan offered a little more insight today suggesting correctly that Yahoo has got a lot more going for it than most, including the market at large, seem to suggest. Yet Danny may still be barking up the wrong tree to suggest that modest changes and a better Google deal will resurrect Yahoo’s market prospects. That might have worked some time ago, but I think a much better plan is very simple: Hire Mark Cuban and Donny Deutsch as morale building maniacs and cutthroat competitors. These guys are flamboyant and will put the big buzz and the fear back into the correct side of this equation: the underperforming part.

Yahoo is still a fantastic *company*, but I think the morale and innovation is so low at all levels that the best approach is major shakeup (rather than just talking about a major shakeup) . This would include large success incentives for old and new blood, and probably include a pretty sharp axe for the heads of those who are not enthusiastic about powerfully resurrecting the prospects of what is still a great company.

Given the mass exodus of executives right now it should be crystal clear to everyone that there is a leadership crisis at Yahoo. Jerry Yang is a brilliant guy and appears to retain a lot of loyalty even as people abandon the ship. Yet for reasons that nobody seems to understand he clearly has been unable to rally the troops to the degree needed at Yahoo. Part of the problem – I’m beginning to think a huge part – is the failure of the troops. Although most critics focus almost entirely on Yahoo’s top level management, I think one of the problem dynamics that came about as Yahoo grew was that despite a core group of dedicated engineers a large number of workers and middle managers simply put in their time, lived lavishly in the gravy days, and watched as their options lost value while Google and successful startup employees became rich. Very rich. It is more than a little demoralizing knowing that thousands of people no brighter or more capable than you are sitting on millions in GOOG value while your YHOO stock and options are decreasing in value.

I remember first seeing this “morale differential” between Yahoo and Google in person at a search conference in Las Vegas in 2005. Where the Google engineers and staff were almost giddy with excitement the Yahoo folks were often uninspired, and I remember clearly how one of the higher level managers was a lot more interested in the parties than evangelizing on behalf of Yahoo’s budding publisher network. There were some really clear exceptions to this such as the incomparable Jeremy Zawodny who gave a brilliant presentation about his extensive blogging experiences as Yahoo’s informal and unofficial blogger laureate. Until his departure last week Jeremy has been one of the reasons to think Yahoo could turn around. Although I’m happy to see the management folks leave I worry that Yahoo’s engineering teams remain a key asset as Yahoo’s traffic is still close to the world’s largest online footprint depending on what metric you use to count people and pageviews.

So Yahoo the answer is simple: Mark Cuban and Donny Deutsch, morale building maniacs. You may have blown the chance to let Microsoft bail you out of the troubles though Carl “I’ll be back” Icahn will certainly come back into the picture as he should. Oh, and he will put in Mark Cuban.

Discloure: long on YHOO