Got Optimal?


It seems to me that one of the most underrated notions in the world is that of the “optimal” arrangement.    You hear a lot of folks talking about things like  “exploitation”, “growth”, “fairness”, “maximizing profits”, etc, etc, but it seems to me we don’t talk nearly enough about how to structure the world in the way that best benefits the most people, ie to seek the optimal arrangement given the needs and contributions of all the players involved.

Nearsighted conservatives will sometimes mistake that kind of discussion as “socialist” because they see it as veering away from the competitive, individual forces that very effectively drive  highly productive economies, but they forget that in the game of economics we should generally be looking at metrics such production divided by number of people (GDP), and this number will be bigger if we optimize correctly.

The left in this sense is usually too “far sighted”, looking to distribute the wealth that may vanish if we eliminate those individual and corporate competitive structures that are the hallmark of industrialization and the spectacular rise in the average standard of living in the industrialized world over the past century.

So, how to optimize things?   Economist Vilfredo Pareto  (OMG he’s Italian?!  economic credibility challenge alert!) had some neat ideas with respect to optimizing systems where we’d examine them to find ways to increase the well being of some participants without decreasing that of others.    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_efficiency

I think this simple basic idea should factor in a lot more, especially for those who fret a lot about the inequitable distribution of production towards the rich.    Those folks generally, and very wrongly, assume that redistribution won’t have negative effects on production.    It will, although that certainly does not mean we should not redistribute anything.   It just means we need to redistribute with *great caution* to avoid the catastrophic kinds of problems faced by basket case economies like North Korea.

I think the single greatest challenge of optimizing is the degree to which you factor in the needs of other nations.   Optimizing with the rural Pakistan peasantry in mind is different than if we draw our lines at the US border and say to heck with the needs of everybody else.   Although I believe we have a moral imperative to take the needs of the world into much better account than we do now, I also recognize that it’s not practical or even possible for those of us who enjoy the many benefits of industrialized capitalism to successfully integrate our economies with those of countries like North Korea or China or even very friendly “economic allies” like India.     Fortunately for those guys – and probably for us too – industrial globalization and the communications  and technology revolution are handling much of this task, often via the invisible hand of Adam Smith style free marketeering.

The future … is better optimized !

USA Debt Rating Downgrade to AA+ is from our failure to cut defense and entitlements


S&P’s decision to downgrade the US debt rating from AAA to AA+ is very unwelcome news but it should not surprise anybody, especially in Washington where neither party has been willing to tackle the deficit or the debt in a responsible manner.

It’s time to cut the only two things in the budget that really matter – the bloated portions of Defense and Entitlements.    Even estimating (and then cutting back) the bloat at 10% – absurdly low given how recklessly this money is spent – we could solve all deficit and debt problems in less than a decade.   DO IT, DAMN IT!

The Tea Party’s was right that debt and deficit are major concerns, but their approach to solving the problem has been almost infantile, lacking in strategy as well as substance.    They won’t cut defense – clearly required to solve this problem unless you raise taxes which as they correctly note brings a host of other problems into the mix.   Defense spending is so high it’s become counterproductive, creating blowback and international tension which is mostly a function of our own reckless big spending in hostile territory.

One does not have to be an isolationist to see that it’s time for a much more strategic spending focus.   Troops can be paid well and protected – these portions need no cuts, but operations and maintenance budgets in each of the services are where the big money lies, and where the big cuts won’t create trouble for policy or troops.

The solution is pretty obvious to many of us out here in the real world, where two things are crystal clear:   1.  Entitlements are out of control.  The prosperity the USA has enjoyed for over a century as the kingpin of the  industrialized world is winding down in favor of spreading the wealth around the globe, especially to the developing countries of China and India.   This prosperity allowed us (and by “us” I mean everybody – from poor to rich) to enjoy health, welfare, education, and retirement benefits the rest of the world could only dream about.      Liberal middle class folks are whining too much about how they might lose benefits they never paid for – much of this in the form of “defined benefits” where their contributions won’t match their benefit so it’ll have to come from future taxpayers.   Social Security has this problem, but it’s easy to solve by lifting retirement age a few years for those who can afford the wait  OR doing a ” means test”  OR taxing higher income beneficiaries.   If we do nothing the Social Security trust fund will run out in under 20 years according to most estimates.      The fund is actually growing now but demographics in the form of fewer workers and more recipients will soon overwhelm the system.   Unlike a well managed system, Social Security has promised more benefits than incoming payments can support.

Summary:   Simple solution is to cut bloat in the two big ticket items of defense and entitlements.    Problem solved, AAA restored.  DO IT.

Tibet Solution? Tourism.


As a big fan of China, Tourism, and individual freedoms and rights I think a solution to the challenges facing Tibet are these  (I wrote this a few years ago at my website that features the Qinhai-Tibet Railway sometimes called the pan-himalayan railroad, Llhasa Express, Tibet Train.    As with all conflicts, there is no “overall solution” because people’s needs are different, but there are many “win win” scenarios where things that are NOT in dispute can be resolved to everybody’s satisfaction.   Everybody wants the children of Tibet to be healthy, happy, well fed, and given good medical care.  Everybody wants Tibetans to be allowed to practice Buddhism, and everybody wants a way for others to experience the wonder of Tibet.  Tourism can make all that happen.

Tibet – Towards a Solution

Here is my proposal for a “win win” situation in Tibet: 

Given that most of the people of China want a strong connection with Tibet and Tibet wants and needs a strong connection with China:

* China grants greater autonomy to Tibet in a relationship that is modelled after Hong Kong and respects Buddhist traditions and the right for people.

* Tibetans agree to work with China to make this relationship beneficial to all.

* China continues to build on the region’s infrastructure, including the Pan Himalayan Railway.

* Tibetans embrace tourism as their primary agent of economic development, recognizing that the cultural and religious history of the region is a very powerful theme for travel marketing and a dramatic increase in regional tourism.

* China agrees that the region will be the key beneficiary of the tourism boom that will come from regional stability and national promotion of the wonders of Tibet.

* Tibetans will share their cultural and religious traditions as much as is culturally comfortable for them. The region can become another jewel in China’s tourism crown as the country prepares to become one of the world’s top travel destinations.

China shuts access to Twitter, Flickr, Bing, Live, Hotmail, Blogger via the “Great Firewall” filters


China is closing down access to various internet services as they approach they anniversary of the Tiananmen Square democracy protests in 1989.   The early report from TechCrunch  says that Twitter, Flickr, Bing, Live, Hotmail, Blogger have all been made hard to access via the “Great Firewall” filters.     I did notice when in China last year that there are various programs like ‘Great Ladder” that allow people to bypass these filters, but obviously not many are going to have the combination of nerve and savvy to do this.

I believe that China’s censorship policies are probably counterproductive *even to the Chinese Government’s goals* in the long term, and I’d sure like to find a way for the internet community to make this clear to China’s leaders.   Ironically China’s leadership has done a remarkable job transitioning away from the bulky, centralized, bureaucratic economy that had been stifling progress for decades.    China’s citizens now enjoy a higher level of prosperity and *economic* freedom than they arguably have ever had in history.  Much of this prosperity is the result of producing goods for the US market.   What exactly does the government think will happen if they allow more open dialog in China?     I’d suggest they’ll find this would tend to reduce the tensions created by unhappy citizens rather than increase them.    Suppression of dissent in Tibet routinely brings international scorn to China, where a more open dialog will bring praise, respect, and support.

China needs to realize that the world’s fascination and respect for China’s culture and international influence will be enhanced by free speech, not reduced.

TechCrunch UK is reporting on this and I’m looking for more direct information now.

More from China’s CN Reviews

Forbes: Shanghai, Beijing as world’s top emerging business centers


It was not surprising to see Forbes suggest that Shanghai and Beijing ranked highest in their recent survey measuring which cities are poised to become major global business capitals.

They used a neat picture from Shanghai’s World Financial Center – under construction when I was there in April and basically the opposite of my picture from below the Jin Mao tower:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/joeduck/2419944285/in/set-72157604613298418/

http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/23/cities-world-ten-forbeslife-cx_mw_1023cities_slide_11.html?thisSpeed=15000

Jin Mao remains one of the top ten tallest buildings in the world but is still dwarfed by the Shanghai World Trade Center with the massive square opening to stabilize the building in high winds.    The opening was originally designed as a huge circle but after initial approval of that spectacular design, Chinese officials decided it looked too much like the symbolism of the flag of Japan and insisted on a new design.

World’s Tallest Buildings from Wikipedia

Wen Jiabao interviewed by Zakaria


Wen Jiabao is the Premier of China, making him one of the most influential international figures of this generation. Today on Fareed Zakaria’s GPS – one of the best shows on TV, we are hearing from Wen Jiabao on several topics of extreme relevance to the global community.

I can’t compliment Zakaria enough for a journalistic style that does two things I’d argue are necessary to get *access to people* while at the same time getting real rather than canned insights. First, he’s polite, which gets access and creates a relaxed atmosphere where real dialog can take place. Second, he asks the *big* questions in a way that brings us real insights into the thinking patterns of the key political and thought leaders he interviews.

Rather than summarize things here I want to link to CNN’s GPS page where I think they will post the interview, because anybody with an interest in where things are going should be paying very close attention.

Much of the current debate in this country about China (as well as many things) takes a sort of cartoon form, where people are stuck on oversimplifying a handful of complex talking points like China’s economic relationship to the USA and China’s Tibet policy (which in my view could largely be solved by shifting treatment of Tibet to an autonomous region like Hong Kong, a relationship that is working fairly well).

Asked about the prevailing economic philosophy who did Wen Jiabao quote? None other than Adam Smith, suggesting that the free hand of capitalism should be balanced by Government regulations to keep things fair and orderly (FYI he’s right that Smith was an advocate of some regulation and application of “morality” to free markets – a historical point often lost in debates here over free market virtues).

What’s Wen Jiabao reading? Stoic Marcus Aurelius apparently is one of his favorite philosophers, a thoughtful but sometimes ruthless Roman emperor who advocated social responsibility and internal progressive social reforms even as he persecuted wars and treated some dissenters ruthlessly.

Beijing Olympics Coverage basically rocks – so stop whining!


I’m really tired of people criticizing the technology behind the Olympics coverage, which has been spectacular on almost all fronts given NBC’s unprecedented “all events online” approach.

Sure it’s unfortunate / frustrating to have some events delayed – especially here on West coast, and I’d guess NBC will change some of this for 2012, but the idea, for example, that CNN should not report results without a “spoiler” note is just asking too much.

Noted over at TechCrunch today:

People need to stop whining while the quirks of social media effects on global events get worked out. Overall the coverage by NBC has been nothing short of spectacular, with real time multiple event coverage online and off. Sure it would be nice if everything was live, but Beijing’s time is very inconvenient for most TV watchers.

People have been whining about tape delays when they could be watching online, and now this absurd idea that CNN should be *delaying the reports* to conform to the NBC delays not to mention the people who are over there *watching the events live*. You want them to shut up until you see the show? Sheesh – do you want me to use a tube TV, too?

Beijing China Temple of Heaven


The Temple of Heaven in Beijing, China is one of Beijing’s top attractions for both foreign and local folks who come here to pray and play cards.


China. Beijing. Temple of Heaven 842
Originally uploaded by JoeDuck

I’m watching the Women’s Marathon at the Beijing Olympics and they just ran through the Temple of Heaven, one of the big Beijing attractions where the emperor, and now regular people come to pray.

The architecture there is a lot like that of the Forbidden City, and although the Temple of Heaven is a large area it has far fewer buildings than the Forbidden City.

Kudos to China’s Tourism Marketing folks (ha – maybe the same as their Olympic folks?) for getting Beijing attractions in front of billions of people.

Beijing Meridian Gate, Forbidden City Entrance


Meridian Gate, Forbidden City Entrance

Originally uploaded by JoeDuck

Wikipedia History

Meridian Gate guards the Forbidden City and is directly across from Tianenmen Square in the heard of Beijing. Although the gate offers a great view of the square, I’d recommend you go on in to the Forbidden City since packs are not allowed on the gate and it’ll take you some time to check bag, tour the gate, and uncheck your bag.

Beijing Olympic Village … 4 months ago…


Olympic Village … 4 months ago…

Originally uploaded by JoeDuck

The Beijing folks are such amazing capitalists that they were literally selling off the Olympic Village housing complex as luxury apartments in April – about four months before the Olympics!

The Olympic area is to form a new upscale residential area for Beijing, which has grown out many miles via concentric rings of development that began at the “center” of Beijing at Tiananmen Square.