Climate Change, Bjorn Lomborg, and why we need more nuclear power.


I’d really urge people to read Bjorn Lomborg more carefully.  He is a very good analyst but unfortunately he’s become a major lightning rod for controversy because people don’t like to hear such well presented views that challenge their sensibilities about global climate change policy.   Thus he’s often branded a “climate denier” when this is ridiculous.

Lomborg should certainly NOT be called a climate change “denier”. First, hose terms simply get people thinking irrationally about the issues, which are about science and policy.    Also because he *agrees* with even the most active activists that climate change is happening and that it poses risks to humanity.    He just feels those risks should be managed rationally in line with the many other challenges faced here on the planet. 

The basic science seems clear: 
* There is global warming – about a degree last century. 
* Most or all of that warming is very likely to be caused by humans via CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions. 
* Increasing CO2 emissions, with China and USA leading the pack, will continue to influence the environment both as pollutants and as catalysts of warming.

So, up to here most climate activists and Lomborg would be in total agreement.

However, it’s the NEXT step that matters most in terms of policy, and that’s where I don’t agree at all with most activists.  Based on observations and current science papers, I’m not convinced that we are facing catastrophic environmental damage.   Sea level rise is very small and manageable.   Even the island nations of Tuvalu is actually *increasing* in land mass due to the complex geological patterns there that appear to be swamping out the effects of sea level rise.  

More importantly it’s very clear to me that *even if we are*, people are not willing to make the changes needed to lower C02 enough to matter more than to lower perhaps a few percent of the increased warming. 

Prioritizing our concerns matters because about a billion people are *currently* facing truly catastrophic conditions in terms of poverty and health in poor countries, and curbing C02 (which is expensive), will divert resources and make it harder for those countries to realize the higher standards that come from modern industrialization/globalization. 

Although I strongly believe that the first diversion of resources to fight poverty should come from our bloated defense budget – now topping a staggering 600 billion per year, I don’t want us to turn around and spend billions trying to stem environmental changes that are likely to happen anyway.   Let’s spend that on saving people *now*.

It’s OK to HOLD STRONG OPINIONS! Just respect other’s rights to do so also.


I’m very concerned about a trend among smart people.   I’m very fortunate to have many sharp friends and family members, but there seems to be a tendency to think that holding strong opinions is somehow unreasonable or unwise.  Most absurdly some seem to think this reflects a lack of understanding – ie the notion that an informed mind is by necessity … ambivalent.

Discussing your opinions passionately and in an assertive fashion IS NOT A CRIME.   Of course you need to respect the opinions of others and, perhaps more importantly, LISTEN to them and see if your views may be wrong or too narrowly focused (I know my views often need modification to fit better with the facts, and sometimes I need to … OMG … completely change my mind.    

HOWEVER I’m proud to have opinions even as I’m very interested in those that are different from mine.   Without the vibrant discussion that opinions can spawn we risk ceding too much of the territory to weak thinking and foolish ideas.

Challenge people on their ideas.  Stupid ideas need to be shut down and smart ideas need the refinement that comes from intelligent conversation.

 

AVG Secure Search Troubleshooting


It’s nice that AVG provides a high quality free product for computer security, but in what appears to be a scramble to monetize their big and recent venture capital investment it *appears* that AVG has jumped the shark with their “secure search” feature.  I just spent about an hour figuring out how to remove it so hopefully this will help YOU escape from the AVG secure search nightmare.   Please post comments if you find these instructions don’t work for you.   

Here are AVGs instructions for removal of AVG 2013:

WINDOWS XP AND 7

  1. Go to Start -> (Settings) -> Control Panel.
  2. Open (Programs) -> Programs and Features, or Add or Remove Programs.
  3. Select AVG 2013 in the list of programs.
  4. Click the Uninstall or Change/Remove button.
  5. Follow the instructions on your screen to complete the uninstallation.
  6. Restart your computer.

WINDOWS 8

  1. Right-click AVG 2013 on the Start screen.
  2. Click Uninstall in the bottom bar.
  3. Select AVG 2013 in the list of programs.
  4. Click the Uninstall or Change/Remove button.
  5. Follow the instructions on your screen to complete the uninstallation.
  6. Restart your computer.

In case the uninstallation was not successful, use the AVG Remover tool:

  1. Save all your work and close all documents! Your computer will be restarted during the procedure.
  2. Download the AVG Remover tool from our website.
  3. Run the downloaded tool and follow the instructions displayed on your screen.
  4. Your computer will be restarted automatically. After the restart, AVG Remover will finish the uninstallation.

For Google Chrome I found used these instructions from the Google forum helpful:

  • If AVG search pages are opening up each time you start up Chrome, check in Wrench Settings On Startup > next to the radio button for Open a specific page or set of pages, click on Set pages > remove any unwanted URLs by hovering over the URL until you see an “X” appear to the right side of the URL.
  • If all searches that you perform in the omnibox is returning with results from AVG search instead of your preferred search engine, check in Wrench >Settings Search Manage search engines > check the list of Default search enginesOther search engines, and Search engines added by extensions, and remove suspicious entries that you are not familiar with. Depending on your extensions, you may not see the last section for Search engines added by extensions.
    • If AVG search is currently selected as the default search engine, you will have to choose another search engine provider as your default first, and then remove the AVG entry. To select another search engine provider as your default search engine, hover over the search engine until you see “Make Default” appear on the right side. Once you have selected your preferred default search engine, you can remove other entries that you do not want by hovering over the entry until an “X” appears on the right side.
  • If AVG is opening up when you click on the Home button, check in Wrench Settings Appearance > select the Show Home button checkbox > check if the URL that appears below it references AVG.
  • Also check that there are no extensions installed that may be causing these changes. Go to Wrench Settings Extensions > if you see any unfamiliar extension that you do not remember installing, try disabling/removing the extension to see it was causing these changes. To disable, uncheck the “Enabled” checkbox next to the extension. To remove, hover over the extension until you see a trash can icon appear, and click on the icon.

I’m curious if others have been as frustrated as I have by AVG Secure search, which is simply a modification of Google search with AVG ads placed on the top.  I don’t oppose advertising, but AVG’s aggressive approach here made it very hard to remove their features, which in my view are not user friendly since I’m getting a very inferior search experience to a native Google search where the advertising is not as intrusive AND where I’m not automatically (and slowly) redirected to the AVG search application for searches.  

Got Portland Oregon House Cleaning ?


I’m in Portland visiting relatives and wanted to shout out to Peggy’s great Portland Oregon House Cleaning service called Bridge City Cleaning.   Peggy’s got a team of great cleaners and they are experts at the kind of challenges we face in the Pacific Northewest such as mold and dampness.  Bridge City only serves the Portland area so if you are one of my Southern Oregon or California friends you’ll have to wait until she expands the empire, but for folks in Portland I’d encourage you to check out Bridge City for your House Cleaning needs.

What Time is the Superbowl? Superbowl 47 – San Francisco 49ers vs Baltimore Ravens.


What time is the big game today?  

Superbowl 47 kickoff is today Sunday, Feb 3, 2013 at 6:30pm EST, 3:30 here on the West Coast of the USA.    The  San Francisco 49ers will tackle the Baltimore Ravens for one of the richest and most prestigious prizes in all of sport – the Superbowl Championship.    Are you ready for some Football?   American Football that is.  In Europe, of course, Football is Soccer, and the Soccer Superbowl is the World Soccer Championships are the FIFA “World Cup”, held every four years.

Here’s a link to better sites than this that are talking about the game:
https://www.google.com/search?q=superbowl+47

Superbowl 47. Sunday February 3, 2013


The San Francisco 49ers will meet  (and I predict will beat!) the Baltimore Ravens today at Superbowl 47.  Coverage began some time ago, but the actual kickoff is today at 6:30pm EST, 3:30 here on the West Coast of the USA.   

P.S.   I’m not a big football fan but I sure like to experiment with search engines, so these last two posts were more an attempt to see how the traffic flows to these posts rather than be a great information resource for the football fan.     For that you’ll want to check out these football resources via Google Search: 
https://www.google.com/search?q=superbowl+47

Obama Inauguration Poem by Richard Blanco


“One Today”

One sun rose on us today, kindled over our shores,
peeking over the Smokies, greeting the faces
of the Great Lakes, spreading a simple truth
across the Great Plains, then charging across the Rockies.
One light, waking up rooftops, under each one, a story
told by our silent gestures moving behind windows.
 
My face, your face, millions of faces in morning’s mirrors,
each one yawning to life, crescendoing into our day:
pencil-yellow school buses, the rhythm of traffic lights,
fruit stands: apples, limes, and oranges arrayed like rainbows
begging our praise. Silver trucks heavy with oil or paper — bricks or milk, teeming over highways alongside us,
on our way to clean tables, read ledgers, or save lives — to teach geometry, or ring up groceries as my mother did
for twenty years, so I could write this poem.
 
All of us as vital as the one light we move through,
the same light on blackboards with lessons for the day:
equations to solve, history to question, or atoms imagined,
the “I have a dream” we keep dreaming,
or the impossible vocabulary of sorrow that won’t explain
the empty desks of twenty children marked absent
today, and forever. Many prayers, but one light
breathing color into stained glass windows,
life into the faces of bronze statues, warmth
onto the steps of our museums and park benches 
as mothers watch children slide into the day.
 
One ground. Our ground, rooting us to every stalk
of corn, every head of wheat sown by sweat
and hands, hands gleaning coal or planting windmills
in deserts and hilltops that keep us warm, hands
digging trenches, routing pipes and cables, hands
as worn as my father’s cutting sugarcane
so my brother and I could have books and shoes.
 
The dust of farms and deserts, cities and plains
mingled by one wind — our breath. Breathe. Hear it
through the day’s gorgeous din of honking cabs,
buses launching down avenues, the symphony
of footsteps, guitars, and screeching subways,
the unexpected song bird on your clothes line.
 
Hear: squeaky playground swings, trains whistling,
or whispers across cafe tables, Hear: the doors we open
for each other all day, saying: hello, shalom,
buon giorno, howdy, namaste, or buenos días
in the language my mother taught me — in every language
spoken into one wind carrying our lives
without prejudice, as these words break from my lips.
 
One sky: since the Appalachians and Sierras claimed
their majesty, and the Mississippi and Colorado worked
their way to the sea. Thank the work of our hands:
weaving steel into bridges, finishing one more report
for the boss on time, stitching another wound 
or uniform, the first brush stroke on a portrait,
or the last floor on the Freedom Tower
jutting into a sky that yields to our resilience.
 
One sky, toward which we sometimes lift our eyes
tired from work: some days guessing at the weather
of our lives, some days giving thanks for a love
that loves you back, sometimes praising a mother
who knew how to give, or forgiving a father
who couldn’t give what you wanted.
 
We head home: through the gloss of rain or weight
of snow, or the plum blush of dusk, but always — home,
always under one sky, our sky. And always one moon
like a silent drum tapping on every rooftop
and every window, of one country — all of us —
facing the stars
hope — a new constellation
waiting for us to map it,
waiting for us to name it — together

The GMO Debate should be over, but it’s not. Activism is trumping Science. Again.


Folks concerned about GMO foods (GMO=genetically modified organisms).  Should very carefully read and research this piece by former anti GMO activist  Mark Lynas, one of the folks who started the anti GMO campaigns that plague us today.   As he notes everybody is entitled to their *opinion*, but the science of GMOs is settled – they are safe and beneficial.
Very sorry to see Southern Oregon become entangled in the anti-GMO debate.  It’s so frustrating to me to see activism trumping science, though I won’t hold my breath waiting for that to change..
“The organic movement is at its heart a rejectionist one. It doesn’t accept many modern technologies on principle. Like the Amish in Pennsylvania, who froze their technology with the horse and cart in 1850, the organic movement essentially freezes its technology in somewhere around 1950, and for no better reason.”

Read his text. It is *very* smart. Here is a summary:

“I want to start with some apologies. For the record, here and upfront, I apologise for having spent several years ripping up GM crops. I am also sorry that I helped to start the anti-GM movement back in the mid 1990s, and that I thereby assisted in demonising an important technological option which can be used to benefit the environment.

As an environmentalist, and someone who believes that everyone in this world has a right to a healthy and nutritious diet of their choosing, I could not have chosen a more counter-productive path. I now regret it completely.

So I guess you’ll be wondering – what happened between 1995 and now that made me not only change my mind but come here and admit it? Well, the answer is fairly simple: I discovered science, and in the process I hope I became a better environmentalist.

When I first heard about Monsanto’s GM soya I knew exactly what I thought. Here was a big American corporation with a nasty track record, putting something new and experimental into our food without telling us. Mixing genes between species seemed to be about as unnatural as you can get – here was humankind acquiring too much technological power; something was bound to go horribly wrong. These genes would spread like some kind of living pollution. It was the stuff of nightmares.

These fears spread like wildfire, and within a few years GM was essentially banned in Europe, and our worries were exported by NGOs like Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth to Africa, India and the rest of Asia, where GM is still banned today. This was the most successful campaign I have ever been involved with.

This was also explicitly an anti-science movement. We employed a lot of imagery about scientists in their labs cackling demonically as they tinkered with the very building blocks of life. Hence the Frankenstein food tag – this absolutely was about deep-seated fears of scientific powers being used secretly for unnatural ends. What we didn’t realise at the time was that the real Frankenstein’s monster was not GM technology, but our reaction against it.

So I did some reading. And I discovered that one by one my cherished beliefs about GM turned out to be little more than green urban myths.

I’d assumed that it would increase the use of chemicals. It turned out that pest-resistant cotton and maize needed less insecticide.

I’d assumed that GM benefited only the big companies. It turned out that billions of dollars of benefits were accruing to farmers needing fewer inputs.

I’d assumed that Terminator Technology was robbing farmers of the right to save seed. It turned out that hybrids did that long ago, and that Terminator never happened.

I’d assumed that no-one wanted GM. Actually what happened was that Bt cotton was pirated into India and roundup ready soya into Brazil because farmers were so eager to use them.

I’d assumed that GM was dangerous. It turned out that it was safer and more precise than conventional breeding using mutagenesis for example; GM just moves a couple of genes, whereas conventional breeding mucks about with the entire genome in a trial and error way.

But what about mixing genes between unrelated species? The fish and the tomato? Turns out viruses do that all the time, as do plants and insects and even us – it’s called gene flow.

But at the same time the growth of yields worldwide has stagnated for many major food crops, as research published only last month by Jonathan Foley and others in the journalNature Communications showed. If we don’t get yield growth back on track we are indeed going to have trouble keeping up with population growth and resulting demand, and prices will rise as well as more land being converted from nature to agriculture.

The biggest risk of all is that we do not take advantage of all sorts of opportunities for innovation because of what is in reality little more than blind prejudice.

I don’t know about you, but I’ve had enough. So my conclusion here today is very clear: the GM debate is over. It is finished. We no longer need to discuss whether or not it is safe – over a decade and a half with three trillion GM meals eaten there has never been a single substantiated case of harm. You are more likely to get hit by an asteroid than to get hurt by GM food. More to the point, people have died from choosing organic, but no-one has died from eating GM.

Just as I did 10 years ago, Greenpeace and the Soil Association claim to be guided by consensus science, as on climate change. Yet on GM there is a rock-solid scientific consensus, backed by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the Royal Society, health institutes and national science academies around the world. Yet this inconvenient truth is ignored because it conflicts with their ideology.

I know it is politically incorrect to say all this, but we need a a major dose of both international myth-busting and de-regulation. The plant scientists I know hold their heads in their hands when I talk about this with them because governments and so many people have got their sense of risk so utterly wrong, and are foreclosing a vitally necessary technology.

So I challenge all of you today to question your beliefs in this area and to see whether they stand up to rational examination. Always ask for evidence, as the campaigning group Sense About Science advises, and make sure you go beyond the self-referential reports of campaigning NGOs.

But most important of all, farmers should be free to choose what kind of technologies they want to adopt. If you think the old ways are the best, that’s fine. You have that right.

What you don’t have the right to do is to stand in the way of others who hope and strive for ways of doing things differently, and hopefully better. Farmers who understand the pressures of a growing population and a warming world. Who understand that yields per hectare are the most important environmental metric. And who understand that technology never stops developing, and that even the fridge and the humble potato were new and scary once.

So my message to the anti-GM lobby, from the ranks of the British aristocrats and celebrity chefs to the US foodies to the peasant groups of India is this. You are entitled to your views. But you must know by now that they are not supported by science. We are coming to a crunch point, and for the sake of both people and the planet, now is the time for you to get out of the way and let the rest of us get on with feeding the world sustainably.”
http://www.marklynas.org/2013/01/lecture-to-oxford-farming-conference-3-january-2013/

Gift of Grameen


My favorite gifts over Christmas – both in terms of giving and getting – are donations to organizations fighting poverty in the developing world.   Foreign Aid is becoming a controversial and intriguing topic (as it should be), but even aid cynics should recognize that most research supports the idea that helping the poor with small farms and businesses tends to raise standards and help people at the most basic level.

Grameen Foundation is a charitable branch of the Grameen Bank, and their work includes many innovative technology projects such as helping to use mobile phones to help the poor interface with important resources.

http://grameenfoundation.org/send-ecard