Category Archives: stocks

Yahoo Microsoft: Is the fat lady almost singing at $34?

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Henry Blodget is whining that the Yahoo Microsoft deal is back to where it started, but I think Henry’s wrong … again!     

I’m glad Henry was wrong about the rumor that Yahoo’s Q4 would beat expectations because it was part of the reason I bought YHOO then, and even though the stock dipped due to a bad Q4, it surged on Microsoft’s offer of $31 per share so I’m well in the black.   But now he’s wrong to say the deal is not almost done.  I think this Yahoo Microsoft merger is coming very soon to an internet near you.

Citibank Analyst Maheney upgraded Yahoo this morning, anticipating a boost in the MS bid to $34.   Hey, maybe he read my blog post of about 6 weeks ago where I suggested Microsoft raise their bid to $34?    

Unlike Henry, I think this is not back to where it all started at all!

Yang didn’t want to merge, now he sees it as almost inevitable.  Yahoo board wanted more, now they know anything past initial offer is gravy.  Part of the show was probably the board protecting itself against lawsuits from the unlucky minions who bought their Yahoo at $35+, some at over $100.

Barring a Q1 miracle that would recalibrate Yahoo prices without help of MS bids, I think the fat lady is now almost done singing on this deal.

 Disclosure:  long on YHOO

Facebook owes me $1.50 per year!

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Over at WebGuild I was doing some simple calculations about my value as an information slave to social networks like Facebook.    Using their 150MM revenues last year and dividing by approximately 100 million current users, we get a value of only $1.50 per year per average user.

The value of an average user in terms of the capitalization of these companies is obviously much greater.  Facebook is (over) valued by some measures at 15 billion based on Microsoft paying 240 million for a tiny share.   By that metric I am worth $150 to the company.    By traditional stock metrics this should jive  in logical ways with the revenue and profit potentials, but the internet economy has shattered many of the old sensibilities about company values, which these days are largely a function of hype, competitive takeover strategies, and other unusual metrics.

Yahoo + Microsoft? Heck yes says Legg Mason, with 6% of Yahoo

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Larry Dignan is reporting that major Yahoo Shareholder Legg Mason is insisting that Yahoo make a Microsoft deal, though they hope and may expect MS to up the offer past 31 and up to 40, which Fund manager Miller stated appears to have been MS’s highest previous offer over the past year of flirting with Yahoo about a merger.

Miller says about Legg Mason’s position:

 We think this deal is a strategic imperative for MSFT, and that YHOO is in a tough spot if it wishes to remain independent.

Strategic imperative or not, Yahoo can’t expect investors to sit back and wait for something to happen when this much money is on the table.   In fact I think investors are already upset that Yahoo is basically suggesting this is their course of action – waiting for prosperity to fall upon them but not in the form of Microsoft.

I should say that given the market’s horrible reaction to the aquisition I’m not at all clear this is good for *Microsoft*.  If they screw up managing Yahoo and/or Yahoo can’t revived it’s sagging profitability fast this could go down as a Time Warner AOL fiasco kind of move for Microsoft.  However, if they want Yahoo I think Microsoft’s strategy from this point on can be very simple:

1.  Offer $34 per share publicly and loudly.
2. Call Legg Mason and other big holders, and tell them this is *OFF* if Yahoo keeps waffling.
3. Bring in fat lady to sing       ….         it’s over.

 Disclosed:  Long on Yahoo. 

Hostilities erupt between Yahoo and Microsoft

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Hey, looks like now it’s an official *hostile takeover* attempt from Microsoft in the battle for the internet giant Yahoo.

Yahoo declined Microsoft’s offer of last week and in this press release Microsoft basically declares their intention to duke it out.    I’m surprised they have not upped the ante yet, but perhaps they are waiting for more drama and information before making a “final” offer to the Yahoo board before taking this directly to Yahoo shareholders.    Although I think most shareholders would take the MS offer it’s clear the *big* shareholders like Jerry Yang don’t want to, so perhaps Yahoo can win a proxy battle for the company.    I have a hunch however that the institutional investors, and the legions of small time folks like me, would jump at a 34+ offer and probably even take the current one unless Yahoo shows a lot more signs of life than screaming out the current rallying cry “We are fighting Microsoft!”

Microsoft PE=16, forward PE=13!

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Wow.    As Yahoo rebuffs them and Microsoft shares continue to take a beating from  what appears to be Yahoo aquisition unhappiness, the PE of this mega company is looking nothing short of spectacular.    Some would argue that Microsoft is slowly dying due to the massive changes in the way people and businesses use software, but it’s foolish to think Microsoft’s prospects are dim under the current conditions.   In my view they are simply making too much money, and remain a key player in a key industry, to deserve this low market valuation.  

If the Yahoo merger happens the PE at MSFT will take a hit, but it would clearly remain well under 20, a very modest PE for a company that still has significant growth potential.

But, I guess like other investors I’m a herd animal and fearful, so I won’t be buying MSFT….quite yet.

Disclosure:  Long on Yahoo, no Microsoft position.

YaAOLhoo? Are you kidding?

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The Times of London is, I think, exaggerating a rumor that Yahoo and AOL might merge in an effort to find off the Microsoft takeover of Yahoo.      I don’t even think this is necessarily a bad idea if you made sure the management of both companies had the necessary shakeups to turn *both* companies around from what seem like desparate corporate positions.  However it just doesn’t ring likely to me at all, and begs the question of how the Yahoo board could make all this work *and* avoid the wrath of the market which probably will view the Microsoft offer as far more favorable than a pie in the sky possible AOL deal.    That said, I’m open to this possibility.    The main thing I’m *against* is more of the same from Yahoo.    Profits and share price matter more than any anti-Microsoft sensibilities, and the board should keep that top of mind at all times. 

Disclosure:  Long on Yahoo 

Microsoft v. Yahoo. They can’t seem to make an offer Yahoo can’t refuse.

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The big tech story remains the Microsoft offer to buy Yahoo, and on Wednesday a meeting at the Yahoo’s HQ in Sunnyvale, CA may seal the deal, though it’s more likely that negotiations will continue for some time after that meeting.

Microsoft may be wondering about the wisdom of the aquisition given how hard the market appears to have punished them for the offer.   Although other tech stocks were down last week, Microsoft’s 13% drop amounted to a loss in capitalization equal to almost the entire value of the Yahoo deal.   ie you could argue that even if Yahoo sold themselves to Microsoft for $1 on Wednesday, the boost in the merged company value would not make the two any more valuable than *Microsoft along* was worth before all this began.     That’s a lot of financial simplification but Microsoft must have at least somewhat more skepticism about all this than they did as they made this offer.

So, what are the likely strategies here?     It is clear Yahoo will reject the current Microsoft Offer which amounts to about $30 per share, and they are strongly rumored to be asking Microsoft for $40 per share.   I’ll eat my keyboard if Microsoft agrees to $40, but I do think they may immediately counter offer at about $34 per share.     Of course unless the inclinations of the Yahoo board change they’ll reject this as well.    I’m growing somewhat suspicous that the unreasonable $40 amount is not really an attempt to boost the sales price – it may be the best way for the Yahoo board to send negative signals, try to wait things out, and give Microsoft more chances to back out.   If Microsoft gets cold feet from the share price drops or Yahoo’s chilly reception of the merger idea, and then backs out of the deal, shareholder lawsuits against the Yahoo board are less likely and weaker.  The Yahoo board will simply say the $40 was a negotiating tactic that went wrong rather than a tactic to kill a good deal.

However I don’t think Microsoft is going to go softly into the night on this, and that will make all this very interesting.    They’ll offer more, and at even $34 per share Yahoo would be getting an amount approaching a 100% premium over their recent 52 week low of about $18 per share.  This is the price YHOO traded at following the bad guidance from the recent earnings call.  

It strains the credulity of this shareholder to see how the Yahoo board can argue that Yahoo has a realistic shot at being “twice as valuable” as they were last week in a reasonable time frame.   In short, we all know they can’t.    This may be a defect of market forces or employee attrition or lazy management or low morale or Google defections or whatever, but left to her own devices Yahoo is pretty much going nowhere fast.   I’ve been bullish on Yahoo for several years now and remain convinced that the company can eventually turn things around.  However I think this aquisition may be 1) part of that turnaround process and  2) presents an offer far too good to refuse without risking a share price meltdown.

So, looks to me that on Wednesday the Yahoo board will turn down the current offer, Microsoft will up the offer to about $34, and Yahoo board will turn that down too (probably the following week).  This will lead to nothing short of a Yahoo shareholder revolt as anxious investors watch a company throw away tens of billions of birds in the hand arguing they are seeking a few more birds in the internet bush.

Ha – even Mini Microsoft hates the deal.   An interesting salary debate over there along with the normal absurd whining from developers over their already very large salaries. 

Disclosure:  Long on Yahoo (but not for long!?)

Microsoft and Yahoo

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I’m still digesting all the Yahoo Microsoft commentary but it seems to shake out as tech folks thinking it will not work and investment folks loving the deal.    Hmmm – the comments seemed favorable, but Microsoft lost a huge chunk of value in stock trading so clearly the “market” is skeptical of this.

One of the things I’ve noted in Silicon Valley is how popular Google has become and how poorly regarded Yahoo and Microsoft have been with respect to internet stuff, though part of this may be that I’m involved with mostly search related online events and conferences and Google clearly rules that roost.   I think the Google success and mystique has probably kept tech folks from focusing on the huge potential of a combined MS / Yahoo empire.    Where both Google and Yahoo have succeeded in capturing online traffic Microsoft has conspicuously failed.   Yet Microsoft has continued to pull very expensive enterprise computing rabbits out of its hat, with even the most recent earnings reports suggesting they still are a dominant and profitable force in the software market.     What better way to smooth the transition from old to new than to buy Yahoo?      Pitfalls?   Sure, but the cultural differences will be happily overlooked by Yahoo employees hungry to see their stock pulled out of the sewer.      If Microsoft is smart they won’t merge the brands – rather inject life and some cash into the flailing Yahoo search and affiliate system.    Microsoft could strongarm online affiliate publishers in a way Yahoo could not – by essentially bribing them to move over from Google via 100% revenue sharing.    The extra total traffic and buzz would be well worth the sacrifice of some of the publishing money.     

As a Yahoo stock holder I’m obviously happy to see the offering price pull the stock up, and positive attention focused on this deal, but I also think it’s a good ideas for the reasons I’ve discussed over the past year.   Most notably MS internet failures, Yahoo’s internet successes in Web 2.0, and the huge combined traffic footprint of a combo-company.

Henry Blodget, who helped me in an oblique way with his rumor that pushed me to buy more Yahoo on Tuesday, now is reporting that there may be other parties interested in Yahoo.   This would make sense given the companies clear potential to be as successful as Google while it languishes at a Market capitalization of about 20% of Google.   I’ve never understood the huge pessimism about the company – clearly the “number two” online behemoth.     We’ve got dozens of major automakers, oil companies, etc.  Why is there an assumption that only Google can succeed online?

Disclosure:  I’ve got Yahoo, and finally don’t have to say that hanging my head in shame.

Why Microsoft+Yahoo>Google

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The Yahoo Microsoft Merger is a very good idea.   Although Yahoo is in some ways a different culture from Microsoft, It seems to me that both of those corporate cultures have become bureaucratic, sluggish, and uninspired when compared to Google’s freewheeling yet very productive approaches.    Yet very importantly, the thousands of Yahoo and MS employees are very impressive, and certainly capable of great things as the online world is reinvented on a regular basis.

If Microsoft can pool the innovations of the LIVE project with Yahoo’s superb developer support programs, and hire and inspire more people to have the evangelical zeal of Googlers, it could be a whole new online ballgame.

The big reason this makes sense is actually very simple, yet is seems to be missed by many analysts now ranting about this as a bad idea.    It’s a mathematical reason.    The traffic from Yahoo+ Microsoft is very substantial.    Yahoo had more total traffic than Google before the merger – it just didn’t have as much of the lucrative search traffic and did not monetize the traffic as well.  With Microsoft traffic, the combined Yahoo Microsoft company will still initially lag Google in search traffic, but it will have *far greater* total web traffic.    This is hugely significant, especially if Microsoft begins to focus more on how important it is to drive potential searchers to search portals inside their own network.    Fear of lawsuits and lack of interest in what for Microsoft was a small revenue source led them to failure in the search business.     Although the LIVE project was inspired, search share still lags so far behind Yahoo and Google that rolling all this into Yahoo search makes a lot of sense.       The combined company would control an enormous share of  global web traffic, and it won’t take too much imagination or innovation to redirect this far more profitably than now.  

Microsoft remains the overwhelmingly huge legacy player in the information technology space.    Google is the clear leader as the new  player.   Can Yahoo inject enough energy into the monstrous Microsoft machine to compete effectively in the online space?    I think there are many potential pitfalls, but on balance  you need to do the math, which says that in online footprint, content, and market capitalization:

Microsoft +Yahoo > Google.  

News release from Microsoft

Disclosure:   I have Yahoo shares.  In fact I doubled them on Tuesday!  Yippee!

Blodget: US Economy is Screwed

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Market watcher Henry Blodget is not optimistic about the US Economy.   He notes that advertising spending already appears to be threatened by the slowdown, and he seems to think this will hit everybody from mainstream media companies to technology/media stocks like Google.  As the subprime mortgage timebombs keep ticking away I think it makes sense that we are in for worse conditions before we see happy days again.   In fact I expect it will be at least 5 years before housing prices return to the highs of 1-2 years back.   It may be time to hunker down and settle in for a long and cold economic winter.