The slow death of printed media … continues …

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Numbers coming in from print media circulation numbers are starting to suggest that print media as we’ve come to know it is in trouble. Despite this Google’s about to start selling newspaper advertising. I suspect this is more to increasingly corner the advertising market than because Google is bullish on the future of newspapers.

Despite John Battelle‘s concerns about Google’s algorithms and print ads, I think mathematical analysis of advertising is a very good thing to do all of the time. I may be taking him a bit out of the broader context since he’s always advocated the value of online ads but here’s what he said today that bugged me:

>>> Ads for a specific, community driven audience need to be part of a conversation, not an algorithm >>>

Sheesh! What “need” is John talking about? Although this may be true from the publisher/sales perspective it’s not at all true for a smart advertiser who will want maximum ROI on the advertising dollar.

Historically, advertisers have been too mathematically incompetent and manipulated by sales BS to make good ad decisions. This is all changing (slower than it should, but changing nonetheless) thanks to PPC efficiency plus superior analytical tools, both provided by Google at low cost.

Newspapers and magazines should be very, very worried, because even dense advertisers will finally start to see that most print ad campaigns have negative ROIs* The print media industry has been built on overpriced ads and low paid authors, and things are going to get much, much worse.

* This has been my view for some time based on some of my own studies, but obviously ROI can depend on your definition of “return”. I’m defining it as direct sales rather than some sort of branding “lift” which is a confusing and questionable method for determination of return on advertising investments, but one that is increasingly used because, IMHO, it tends to support the status quo of massive advertising waste on foolish print advertising campaigns run by expensive advertising agencies.

More on this from Dan Blank

The Golden Rule for Grilled Cheese Sandwiches … and Companies?

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As anybody who has ever cooked more than a few grilled cheese sandwiches knows very well, it’s VERY easy to burn them. Yet there is a way to make virtually perfect grilled cheeses every time, and it’s a simple “Golden Rule”. Don’t leave the pan unattended. If you simply stand by your pan and keep tabs on the process for the 4-5 total minutes it will take to complete the process it is very hard to burn the thing – just keep checking every 10 seconds or so until you have a golden brown, gently melted, cheddar or american, taste sensation of a grilled cheese sandwich.

Companies too?   I’ve noted that restaurants often go downhill at the point where the owner stops keeping tabs on the day to day activities, and I noted the comments of Venture Capitalist Rick Segal at Startup Camp suggesting that one of the worst things that can happen to a new company is when the founders start to view themselves as “employees” which can happen as venture money, and the resulting obligations, start to change the company culture.  He also talked about the importance of keeping those founders involved *as founders* so that the intellectual and emotional investment in the success of the venture is not tarnished by the new venture relationship.

Grilled Cheese Virgin Mary

Of course if you follow the Golden Rule of Grilled Cheese Sandwiches and Companies AND get a bit lucky you might even create a Mother Mary Grilled Cheese and sell it to GoldenPalace Casino via Ebay for $28,000 as happened with the one pictured above.

Zooomr wins Startup Camp

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Kris Taylor’s Zooomr won the Startup Camp honors and a great high end Sun Microsystems Computer setup.    I learned that commuting in the Bay Area is simply insane, but had a fine time enjoying the great hospitality of my good pals Linda and John.    John’s going to start a blog about health insurance very soon which is great because he’s one of the most knowlegeable and experienced health insurance people in California.

Komarnitsky’s Halloween Webcams – amazing..

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REVISED AGAIN:

Alek informs me that he really is up to amazing X10 cam tricks with lights and inflating Homers despite the fact that it was a hoax back in 2002. It really is amazing then.
REVISED:
Alek Komarnitsky has (not!?) set up a remarkable use of remote online control at his house for Halloween, with 3 webcams, light switches, and inflatables controlled by the viewers. Amazing. NOT Amazing.

Amazing!

Google vs Microsoft reveals a pitiful MS

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Today’s Tech headlines:

Google Aquires JotSpot

Google shares ad wealth with videographers 

Microsoft has a new image on their boxed software 

Who’d have thunk just a few years ago that so many would be pitying Microsoft as the “has been” of computing innovation?     Sorry, but Ms. Dewey is just not going to head off Google, MS guys.

Sex, lies, and commercial blogging disclosures

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Mike Arrington suggests that PayPerPost is now officially absurd with a new and silly disclosure policy and I think I agree:

PayPerPost’s disclosure options are already effectively obsolete because checking the first box = “Look at me, I’m a very virtuous blogger” does not disclose the use of that blog as a powerful search optimization tool for *other* websites by the blog author or his associates. Also, if somebody runs ads and gives the money to charity I consider them *more* virtuous than somebody who refuses advertising, yet these standards imply otherwise.

I think the whole notion of commercial vs personal is getting so blurred that we need to either stop worrying about this OR look for an extremely high level of blogger identity transparency (e.g. a clear itemization of vested interests posted and verified by a third party with public consequences if the blogger fails to disclose vested interests).

Non-commercial bloggers become speakers and book writers and link to friends – is that commercial? Of course it is.

Face it, Facebook isn’t even close to being worth what’s going to get paid for it

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Like many frothing at the mouth online analysts and social networking ravers, Pete Cashmore suggests that Zuckerberg is right to act like he’s in no rush to sell Facebook, but this is silly. Zuckerberg is playing high stakes poker and he has a LOT to lose – certainly hundreds of millions if Facebook hits any major snags or if some newer and hipper online community takes root. I suspect he knows this but is loving the game, and I certainly admire this young whippersnapper for that and for creating such a magnificent web community. Magnificent, but only “worth” a fraction of the 1+ billion Cashmore suggests Facebook is now worth as an independent business.

But then what do I know, I traded my Apple for WCOM back in the day.

I do think Google will now scarf them up as part of their “empty the lake of big fish” marketing strategy, and I predict they’ll pay about 1.1 billion, but this is the luck of timing by Zuckerman, not a market based assessment of the value of Facebook as an independent entity, which everybody seems to be wildly overestimating. YouTube’s the same situation, where it’s value is not in streaming 100,000,000 crappy videos per day, rather in the fact that it helps Google, now awash in high valued stock, consolidate their position as the key online advertising leader.

The funny thing is that the *same rationales* used in 1999 are rearing their silly heads again, and only a handful of investors are noticing this. Unlike 1999 there are now many *real companies* out there with moderately long and profitable online histories, but ironically they appear to be very undervalued compared to the more speculative plays.

Should Blogging ban Conferences?

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Nielsen banned blogging at a recent conference leading Steve Rubel to ask “Should Conferences Ban Blogging?” I think a much better question is this:

Should Blogging ban Conferences?

Over the last 18 months or so I’ve made a point of attending several internet-related conferences. Some were informative, some fun but one of the most important things I took away was how much more I could have learned by simply spending an equal amount of time in careful online study of new developments.

This was even true at the best conference format from the superb UNconferences held by Dave Berlind and Doug Gold in Mountain View. So, why am I heading down to their latest effort, Startup Camp, next Wednesday and Thursday? … Well, it’s because conferences are a very enjoyable way to meet people and learn a few new tricks and “get out” from the somewhat nonsocial work environments in which many online professionals dwell much of the time, especially independents like me.

But blogging those conferences is really enjoyable, creates highly relevant new content for the web, and most importantly spreads the word to people who can’t attend due to expense or distance or whatever.

The idea of conferences banning blogging is very shortsighted from the conference’s financial success perspective since blogging is free publicity for next year and will encourage the growing legions of citizen journalists to attend.

FAR more importantly, Banning blogging is also turning the internet efficiency on it’s head and suggesting that the goal of conferences is the greedy monetization of the conference itself, rather than the appropriate monetization of the education and social experience.

Hey conferences – if you have something worth saying, it’s worth your attendees blogging about it.

UPDATE:  Max has a thoughtful reply, though I don’t agree:

Max this is a thoughtful argument and correctly separates this case from normal conference blogging as I failed to do in my critical post.
However I remain skeptical of any anti-blogging policy since it defies a new open standard that suggests blogging keeps the online world humming along nicely.  This appears to be too close to asserting that it’s OK to profit from online communities and activities with no obligation to share insights with that same community.

Myspace to Facebook migration underway. Next Facebook to ?

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Washington Post piece suggests Myspace may be in trouble as teens migrate from there to Facebook, which until a month ago was a college socializing website but now covers the globe. I’m not sure Facebook will be the endpoint though. Seems to me that the ‘need’ for a social network separate from the internet network is a transitional thing. What we’ll see eventually are socializing applications/gadgets/routines that will collect information from everybody’s online activities and disperse the info in ways over which we will have a fair amount of control.
For example as I write this blog entry (or do anything online) I should be able to click a button and have all the content dump into all my other web “spaces”. (This actually happens at Facebook already and kudos to them for the blog import feature).

Seems that any writing I want to make public should be placed in any and all appropriate places and be completely searchable from many search engines within minutes. We are a long way from that but I see social networks as a transitional form, not a final form, of online socializing, content creation, and content distribution.

Complicating the commercial analysis of the migration is the fact that users of Myspace are getting older, and probably are less likely to shift once they have established themselves on a social network.

However, it would seem to me that the most profound aspect of social networking has not really surfaced yet and that’s the fact that people will become increasingly frustrated with the fact that their Myspace / Facebook web pages and web views are primarily and overwhelmingly benefiting those companies rather than the content producers.

Heavy online users often don’t even realize that simply surfing around online and composing new and original content is a key component of all those juicy ad dollars flowing to many in the food chain like Google and Myspace and Facebook, but not to the owner of a Facebook or Myspace page.