9 killings over the weekend. In Iraq? No, Chicago.


As somebody who believes that real math and reason should govern our perceptions about the world, it is difficult to reconcile how people become almost obsessively concerned with certain categories of death or destruction while ignoring others.

For example regardless of how you view the war in Iraq, the death toll appears to be comparable to …. shootings in the USA.    Obviously  there are caveats needed for this simplistic comparison – US is larger, civilian deaths in Iraq are not as well documented and down from the past, etc.   But my point is that if deaths are what bother you then you should familiarize yourself with key death statistics, and you should advocate US spend accordingly.   The most important stat is that *tens of thousands* of  people die around the world every day from easiily preventable illnesss such as Malaria, AIDS, Intestinal viruses, and more.  Unlike violent deaths, which often spring from irreconcilable ethnic, economic, religious, or cultural tensions, deaths from disease are almost universally considered to be “undesirable”.   Also, research has made it clear that lowering death rates generally lowers the birth rate.  The notion that saving people just creates more people to save is …  not supportable.   Yet we (yes, I mean YOU!) continue to pour *trillions* into military and low ROI social programs while a fraction of that amount would create massive infrastructure improvements and save tens of millions of lives.  

I don’t understand the aversion to sensible spending, but I think it stems from some key defects of our human species:

1) We are programmed and designed to respond more to single instances of things rather than massive instances, and to respond locally rather than globally.  Thus we will work harder to save a single child in need of a heart transplant than a whole village in India dying from lack of sanitation.   This focus was functional evolutionarily but now is breaking down in our big world where disaster can loom large for huge numbers of people.

2) We (yes, I mean YOU!)  suck at math.   Many people in power don’t even grasp the chasm of difference between a million and a billion dollars.  Contractors in the military exploit this fundamental math ignorance of people in congress and military decision makers on a daily basis.   The answer of course is to follow the advice of the founders (and even Gen Dwight Eisenhower!) and take this massive and inappropriate military spending out of the hands of bureaucrats and politicians.   In fact the answer is to massively curtail military spending immediately by 50% to 90%.   The security implications are minimal, but people refuse to do the analyses.  I’m absolutely *stunned* by how ignorant and sheepish most of my fellow fiscal conservatives are about the waste in the military.  It is glaring, massive, and preventable – even more than the massive levels of waste in the US social services sector.

That ends my rant for the day.  We now return you to our regularly scheduled blogging…

 

Clinton Wins Pennsylvania


The networks aren’t calling it but I can because you can get the results from the CNN exit polls with a little extra math:

Based on the exit polls, Clinton will win 52% to 48% and that close margin means this is almost certainly going to the convention.  

Clinton Wins Pennsylvania

The networks are not calling it yet but the exit polling makes it clear Hilary Clinton will win the Pennsylvania Primary.

CNN’s Exit poll data indicates the results will be as follows:

Clinton Male Vote %: .42 x .47 = 20%
Clinton Female Vote %: .58 x .55 = 32%

Clinton Total vote: 52%

Obama Male: .42 x .53 = 22%
Obama Female: .58 x .44 = 26%

Obama Total Vote 48%

Update:  With 99% now in Clinton won 55% to 45%.   This is enough of a margin that no candidate can really argue for any clear democratic consensus, and clearly the convention could be a very lively event.

Money is now a key factor in that Obama has lots and Clinton does not.

 

Medford Oregon Dentist


Medford Oregon Dentist – Wu Family Dentistry Review

I’ve lived in the Rogue Valley of Oregon for over twenty years.  There are many excellent dentists in the area but in my opinion the best Medford Oregon Dentists are Dr. Kevin Wu and Dr. Julie Wu of Medford.    Kevin is a Table Tennis pal of mine and we recently returned from a trip to China, but that’s not why I’m recommending Wu Family Dental as the best in Medford Oregon.    When my son was to have his wisdom teeth extracted his dentist recommended an oral surgeon.    I asked Kevin for a second opinion and he wound up doing the extractions in a very short and painless procedure.  My son was very pleased with the efficiency of Dr. Wu, his staff, and his office as well as the fact that he recovered from the procedure much faster than his friends who had gone elsewhere.

I’ve also had work done by Dr. Kevin and his assistants and found Wu Family Dentistry to be the most professional, friendly, and modern dental facility in the Rogue Valley.    High tech, low invasive X ray equipment, excellent technicians and office staff, and waiting room snacks are the types of people and amenities you won’t find in some of the other dental offices in the Medford Area.

So, this is an unsolicited endorsement of Wu Family Dentistry as the Best Medford Oregon Dentists.

 

 

Foreign Experts Building Hotel Buffet


Foreign Experts Building Hotel Buffet 607

Originally uploaded by JoeDuck

The morning breakfast buffet at the Foreign Experts Building Hotel in Beijing was free and exceptional. Rice, vegetables, wonton, Bao, eggs cooked to order, bacon, sausages, and much more made the morning meal a huge feast. FEB was an exceptional hotel at the price we paid – about $80 per night US due to some special deal from our Beijing Friend Kevin Wu, the best dentist in Medford Oregon. We had a huge 1BR suite. Even Hotels.com pricing was more than double this and rack rates were about $500 US per night for our large room .

Hong Kong Meat Vendor




Hong Kong Meat Vendor 004

Originally uploaded by JoeDuck

One of my favorite aspects of China were the hundreds upon hundreds of small street vendors selling everything from soup to nuts to fried bugs to silk scarves to chopsticks. Hong Kong seemed to be teaming with more vendors than Shanghai or Beijing but maybe that was just the locations we walked in. I think this was taken in Kowloon near the place where I enjoyed some of the best BBQ pork I have ever tasted, bought from a street vendor who had some amazing meat cleaver skills as he sliced and diced pork, chickens and ducks for the passers by.

World Malaria Day is April 25th


Malaria is one of the most persistent yet solvable problems on earth, and progress has been made as awareness increases.    Netting, cheap drugs, and anti-mosquito programs all have a role to play and the cost of these measures pales in comparison to what we spend to save a few lives here in the developed world.  

One of the issues I can’t emphasize enough to my fellow fiscal conservatives is that saving lives *DOES NOT* result in increased populations.    This is a faulty but common notion that leads the developed world to spend far too little on poverty reduction which has an extremely high return on the investment by any practical measures and certainly a high return by moral measures.

Can you, personally, save a human life by giving a few bucks to a malaria program?  Yes, you can and I am willing to give anybody a money-back guarantee you will feel good about it:
http://www.malariaconsortium.org/pages/world_malaria_day_2008.html

 

    

Beijing Tea Scam: Beware Many Tea Houses near Forbidden City / Tiananmen Square


Beijing Tea Scam: Avoid the Si Zhu Xiang Tea House near Forbidden City / Tiananmen Square

Originally uploaded by JoeDuck

Update:  Generally, if you are approached by a good English speaker there is a *very good chance* he or she is trying to scam you or sell you something rather than “practice English”.  In Tea houses confirm pricing *before you sit down* or you’ll probably be in for a surprising bill.

Beware the SI ZHU XIANG Tea House in Beijing!

I fell for the Beijing Tea Scam (also common in Shanghai) where you are approached by a person claiming to want to practice english, then subtly lured to a Tea House for a “Tea Ceremony” that is hugely overpriced.

The scam is so good I have learned that many other travelers have also been duped by this because it preys on the fact that you don’t want to insult anybody and generally are unfamiliar enough with the landscape, money, etc. that you just pay the bill.  My bill was $85 for a few tea samples. I’m guessing some who fall for this never even realize that they have been scammed – rather just think they paid “a lot” for Tea as I did untili I realized this was a very clever con game common in Beijing and Shanghai.    I have challenged the charge and cancelled my card and will post follow ups on this later.

The China Tourism groups and guidebooks are guilty of NOT warning people enough about the fact that generally if you are approached in popular tourism areas by people who can speak english they are usually working some sort of sale or scam.   Several sources suggested to me that it is common in China for people to come up and ask to take pictures and “practice” their English.  Although I’m sure there are exceptions to the rule, the notion that people are looking to practice their english is only true in that that they are improving on these very clever short cons.     I think I was approached at least ten times – mostly in Beijing – sometimes it was obvious they were working to sell me something but sometimes not at all apparent.

I can only hope that law enforcement does something to prevent this during the Olympics because a lot of this may overshadow the experience of meeting some of the wonderful people of China, only a tiny number of whom are perpetrating the scams.

Beware the SI ZHU XIANG Tea House in Beijing!

Looking for legitimate tea?   Try Beijing Tea Street but still make sure you understand pricing.  China really takes tea seriously and some are very expensive.