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About JoeDuck

Internet Travel Guy, Father of 2, small town Oregon life. BS Botany from UW Madison Wisconsin, MS Social Sciences from Southern Oregon. Top interests outside of my family's well being are: Internet Technology, Online Travel, Globalization, China, Table Tennis, Real Estate, The Singularity.

Does Web 2.0 success flow from the seven deadly sins?


Yahoo reports a neat quote by Reid Hoffman who founded LinkedIn.com the business networking site and has invested in many other 2.0 companies. He was asked for investment criteria and replied: “Which of the seven deadly sins does it appeal to?”

Let’s review the seven deadly sins to see if internet success stems from addressing them.
Thanks to deadlysins.com for this summary of the seven deadly sins:
Pride is excessive belief in one’s own abilities, that interferes with the individual’s recognition of the grace of God. It has been called the sin from which all others arise. Pride is also known as Vanity.

Envy is the desire for others’ traits, status, abilities, or situation.

Gluttony is an inordinate desire to consume more than that which one requires.

Lust is an inordinate craving for the pleasures of the body.

Anger is manifested in the individual who spurns love and opts instead for fury. It is also known as Wrath.

Greed is the desire for material wealth or gain, ignoring the realm of the spiritual. It is also called Avarice or Covetousness.

Sloth is the avoidance of physical or spiritual work.

OK, we’ve got a problem. I suppose you could argue that Google and Yahoo are not “2.0” companies, but clearly the big online money is not coming from the sins as much as from *search* which may be indirectly related to the sins as in people searching for sins, but I think the seven sins criteria falls short in favor of simple curiosity, socializing, and habituation (~aka branding) criteria which drive the top sites like Myspace, Google, and Yahoo and can be expected to drive future 2.0 successes.

Head on – apply directly to your gullibility and wax your forehead.


Another homeopathic remedy rears it’s silly head with the product I’ve seen advertised so much on TV without any description of what it’s supposed to do.   Apparently that’s because it does .. nothing.

Wikipedia:
HeadOn is a homeopathic topical headache relief product produced by Miralus Healthcare.[1] Although intended uses are not listed on the website or in the commercial spot, the purported purpose of the product is to assuage head pains after being applied directly to the forehead.[1] Chemical analysis has shown that the product consists of almost entirely wax.

Yahoo! too much 2.0 can be a … confusing…. thing.


Awhile back I failed to make my point about Yahoo doing “too good” a job at 2.0 for their own good, but now I see they are back at it again.    Yahoo Photos looks like some really good stuff, and if I remember correctly they have a huge library of pix and a user base  that is something like 10x greater than Flickr.    But I’m already confused.   Yahoo owns Flickr, which is a great application.   Are they expecting Flickr users – and more importantly developers of picture applications – to switch to Yahoo Photos?  Why? Are they rebranding here?   Sure I could spend a little time trying to answer these questions but this is not high on the list.  I know Flickr and love it and I’ll use it until further notice.

My earlier point was that offering people too many choices, or unclear choices, gets in the way of people *accessing* those quality innovations.   One of Google’s virtues has been to offer simple, targeted  solutions.   MSNs vice has been to offer cumbersome, bloated and confusing applications which change names every 6 months.

Yahoo, please follow the Google “instructions for use should be obvious and intuitive” plan.

Google v. Kinderstart ing over again in September


The Google vs Kinderstart Lawsuit was dismissed though judge Fogel suggested that if Kinderstart can show  a case of “manual intervention” by Google the outcome might be different and it’s now clear they’ll refile in September, probably as a class action.   If the judge means they only need to show that Google’s done manual intervention *in any case* then this is going to get interesting, because everybody in SEO knows that Matt’s spam team routinely zaps sites that violate guidelines from the index.   I doubt this was Kinderstart’s problem though – rather a severe algorithmic downranking that many sites have suffered over the past few years.     However the Google lawyers may have failed to understand the nuances of the algorithm vs violations and how humans interface with this at Google (I think no single person knows everything over there).  Thus if the judge felt Google claimed “no manual intervention whatsoever” then I think he might get pissed to know how often violating sites get killed off.

If this is any indication of the thinking that could guide the decisions I have no idea what’s going to happen here.

If Scoble is worried, your 2.0 should worry too.


Robert’s concerned about potential failures of Web 2.0 companies.   He’s one of the best connected online people and his departure from Microsoft last month to join podtech signalled some *optimism* about the potential of Web 2.0.   Now that he’s in the trenches with other 2.0 startups it makes me nervous to hear him worry, though I think his concerns are legitimate and notable.

To me a key question remains unanswered, and relates to how people will relate to community niches which I predict will dominate the future of online activity, though I’m not sure how search will fit into the mix and it may continue to generate most of the revenues.

Will people primarily:

1) Join online communities as they grow up organically from the ground up ?
(e.g. Myspace, Facebook, PlentyofFish, Flickr)

2) Join communities that they are directed to via advertising and other activities at Google, Yahoo, MSN, AOL?
(e.g. Yahoo360)

3) Start with 1 and finish with 2 after the big company aquires the 2.0 company?

There are other possibilities but I think option 3 is going to be the pattern we’ll see for most companies.  FOX’s aquisition of Myspace and Yahoo’s of Flickr suggest that the big guys may just wait to see what creamy companies rise to the top and skim them off.    This experimental approach seems logical given the very high level of uncertainty associated with all things online.

Poverty? Cool!


I really like the ONE campaign because I think it’s doing something other development efforts have failed to do – harness celebrity power and “coolness” into the mix which encourages those who otherwise do not think about these issues to …. think about them a lot and jump on the bandwagon. One is making it “cool” to care about poverty, and I can think of few more powerful forces of change than the coolness factor. http://www.one.org

Kids, cars, costs, and risks


Time to buy a car that’ll be used by my son, a new driver. Here we have the intriguing but rarely discussed intersection of safety, cost, and coolness factors. As for most parents, the safety of my kids is my top priority. However like most parents I won’t be seeking the single safest vehicle available for my new driver. Rather I’ll balance various concerns according to behavior formulas I do not understand and hope for the best. At times like these I wish there were simple programs for a family decision maker to allocate risk rationally, but I doubt you could make money on them. I don’t think evolution prepared humans much for allocating long term risks and rewards. It would be nice, for example, to see if the substantial risks associated with bicycling swamp out the differences in risks between a car with and without airbags. ie can I get the same “safety boost” I get with airbags by just having my son foresake a few hours of bike riding or other “riskier than driving” behavior.
Here’s a summary of some old Natl Transportation Safety Data from OK Police (I couldn’t find more recent data or the direct source at NHTSA.

Air bags save lives. Air bags in passenger cars and light trucks prevented an estimated 1,136 fatalities from 1986 to 1995, with another 600 saved in 1996. Once these life saving devices are equipped in all cars, it is estimated that 3,000 lives will be saved each year.

Driver-Side Air Bags
Driver-side air bags reduce the overall fatality risk of car drivers by a statistically significant 11 percent.

In other words, a fleet of cars equipped with driver-side air bags will have 11 percent fewer driver fatalities than the same cars would have had if they did not have air bags. Still, air bags can be dangerous to short stature adults sitting too close to the air bag module, especially when unbuckled.

Passenger-Side Air Bags
Passenger-side air bags reduce the overall fatality risk of car passengers age 13 and older by a statistically significant 13.5 percent.

It is estimated that an additional 88 right front passengers ages 13 and older would have died from 1986 to 1995 if passenger cars or light trucks had not been equipped with passenger-side air bags.

To date only one passenger, a 98-year-old female, has died as the result of an adult passenger-side air bag-related injury.

MORE: Here’s more data including a study (see left side of page) that suggests over 12,000 deaths from US state’s failures in more aggressively implementing seat belt laws.   If we assume these folks are worth 2.7 million each as the transportation department likes to do,  then in simple terms it would have been worth 12000 x 2.7 million = 32.4 billion dollars to prevent these deaths.     Assuming EPA’s higher value of life number we get even more life bang from our bucks by getting people to buckle up, which is one of the cheapest ways to save lives.    The cheapest of all for USA life saving, if I recall correctly from a study printed in the book “The Skeptical Environmentalist”, is increasing the use/quality of smoke detectors in buildings and homes.    For life saving on a global scale I think it’s oral rehydration therapy or mosquito nets, which at .15 per dose / 2.50 per net are quite the deal if you see *human life* as the thing we should be optimizing for as we allocate limited resources to big problems.