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About JoeDuck

Internet Travel Guy, Father of 2, small town Oregon life. BS Botany from UW Madison Wisconsin, MS Social Sciences from Southern Oregon. Top interests outside of my family's well being are: Internet Technology, Online Travel, Globalization, China, Table Tennis, Real Estate, The Singularity.

Playstation 5 = Human Brain says leading UK futurist


Playstation 5 , said leading UK futurist Pearson, will be as powerful as a human brain.  He notes the dramatic increase in power as video games evolve, and predicts that by 2050 we'll be able to download our brains into computers.    Combine this notion with the recent brain blueprint experiments for a neat look into the probably future of …. self.  

The implications are nothing short of staggering for a world filled with machine housed consciousnesses, communicating at near light speed via global networks.  

How would these entities, perhaps AKA "you and me", view those who have chosen NOT to download into the machines?     I'm guessing favorably unless the physical entities became threatening which would seem unlikely.  Machines – conscious and otherwise – by that time will be so capable that it seems unlikely serious conflict would be to anybody's advantage.

I just hope I can make it to 2050 and have enough cash for the download.  Pearson think's it'll take 25 MORE years before the procedure becomes cheap enough to be routine. 

New Orleans Tourism stats


New Orleans Tourism Economy

Note the 16 to 1 return on tourism investment.  This "huge ROI" theme is always interesting and mathematically provocative, since without qualification it means you can balance/expand any state budget by simply investing a few billion in tourism which will in turn yield huge economic gains and spin off lots of extra income tax revenues.    Oregon recently decided to hugely increase state funding for tourism promotion while cutting other sectors.   Based on what little I've seen it really does seem to be working in returning far more to even the TAX base than the cost of the marketing.

The Elegance of Efficiency. More Mediocrity NOW!


I'm smashing up some concrete steps so I can repair them by pouring fresh concrete, and noting that the previous fellow (or hardy concrete pouring gal c1911-1950) did not have the benefit of Quickrete premixed bags to which I just add water, mix in wheelbarrow, and pour.  

They probably had limited concrete expertise as I'm finding big chunks of rock, no rebar material (metal to help strengthen the hardened concrete), and even a glass bottle buried in the steps.  Even I wouldn't toss in a bottle…but….

But the point is that that hardy concoction worked well for many, many decades.   It was a mediocre job but it was the RIGHT job.   Probably close to the same project lifespan as if they'd had the world's BEST concrete people working on the project – and even if the BEST concrete people's job would have lasted forever, it's likely somebody might have come in to remodel or otherwise destroy the "perfect" job.

The moral of the story is that in most cases the "perfect" job is NOT THE BEST THING TO DO!  In almost all endeavors it's better to have much higher levels of mediocre production than a modest level of high class production. 

"But would you want a doctor who is removing your spleen to believe in your principle of mediocrity?"  You ask, expecting me to say …. "that is an exception".

 It's not an exception and neither is national defense spending, which is absurdly expensive partly for political reasons but mostly because mediocrity is not valued highly enough in this venue either. 

I say we need MORE mediocrity in almost ALL things, especially those where risk aversion is most expensive such as national defense and offense, health care, and social security – our triple threat national budget breakers.  

Most of the world lives (and dies) with very modest levels of health care.  Here in the luxury world we can live a few years longer thanks to super advanced medical procedures, though most of  us squander those benefits with lifestyle decisions like smoking, overeating, and poor excersize habits.

The case for the massive interventions and high level expensive healthcare options we insist on in the first world is not only questionable from a practical standpoint due to very low ROI for high level interventions – it's questionable from a moral one – at least until the majority of people in the world have *basic* health care.

Google Analytics


Wow, I've got to hand it to Google – again – for offering an extraordinary application at no charge.  Google Analytics was formerly "Urchin", and cost about $500 monthly.  It's an extremely robust log analysis tool that allows detailed "drill down" examination of things like referrer logs, page views, and much more.  A very clever user friendly tool called "site overlay" allows you to explore the click through rates of a home page's (any page's?) internal links.   Very helpful in designing navigation for the site.

Homeopathy – it doesn’t work so why do so many people believe in it?


This is a very nice clear thinking explanation of why smart people believe in nonsensical remedies like homeopathy.      In his book "Why people believe weird things", Shermer cleverly points out that many of our perceptions of how the world works come from childhood experiences and observations and contexts.  Later, rather than truly apply critical thinking to our notions, most of us simply work to rationalize those childhood perceptions using a scientific method tool box.     I'd suggest a good test of a clear thinking person is that they will, over time, collect evidence about their cherished beliefs and will tend to change their mind about a variety of things based on that growing body of emperical evidence.

Perfect Search = Advertising problems?


Issues about Search are generally and wrongly presented as technological or computer challenges when in fact they are best viewed as *advertising* challenges.     Ultimately the search winner will be the advertising winner  (Now that winner is Google with Yahoo, MSN, and ASK working hard to catch up).  I'm suspicious that innovation is now driven more by advertising than by "quality search" considerations.  Certainly innovation is now mostly *funded* by advertising and bets placed on the quest for ad dollars.  

I suggested in an email exchange recently:

…. a "perfect" search engine set up like Google would make much less *directly* from ads since it would always deliver a perfect organic (ad free) result.   I suppose in some cases there would ALSO be a perfect ad match, but there is an interesting natural tension between profit, search quality, and market share.

Tom observed in response:

…let's assume a perfect search result is one where each search result has a bit of information that's of interest to the searcher; and since it's perfect, the search engine has gone over the results and found superficially similar results that don't contribute new information content, ranked the results according to useful information content, and generally done a perfect job.  I think there's still room for product promotion in there, especially if I'm looking for a product, which I increasingly do on the 'Net.

I replied:
I agree if we ssume as below that perfect search still does not really match us exactly to our query. But I'm more optimistic about search and think that when combined with personal histories and other inputs like query refinements, it'll come close to reading our query intention with extreme accuracy.    People would still BUY stuff as a result of search but it would be hard to use the existing models for advertising which associate only those willing to pay with the relevant results lists. 

“With enough money … current technology could compute the billions of neurons in the brain”


Thanks to Politech for pointing out this remarkable attempt to Blueprint the Human Brain using high speed computing.   I'll be very surprised if we can't duplicate human style thinking within a generation.  In fact I'm optimistic that machines will so far exceed our abilities that many complex problems will have solutions available to us as part of this process.  I'm not nearly as optimistic that we'll accept/implement these solutions.   Many pressing global problems are solvable NOW, but the forces of ignorance, selfishness, and politics prevent the implementation.

Drats, Foiled again! Humbled by math and technology, which I’m convinced are EVIL forces of the DEVIL!


There was me, priding myself on applying the elusive Monty Hall conditional probability math to "Deal or No Deal" TV show and thinking how clever I was to integrate DVD, touchscreen, and LCD Television for a snazzy new tourism presentation.     WRONG and WRONG was I, since it appears the math on Deal no Deal is NOT Montyfied, and the DVD touchscreen solution remains elusive.

Circuit City was very helpful figuring out the challenges and I learned that running DVD through a computer using the normal VGA outputs will give crappy picture.   The video is very high quality and keeping it that way is a priority.  Surprisingly to me, even with a hyped up graphics card and DVI output I may not get great quality on a 42" LCD TV.    The TV dude said that this is from incompatibilities in digital standards and helps explain why media center technology (much hyped by Microsoft at MIX06) is NOT taking off very well.

The problem is I need to interface with a touchscreen so the users control the presentation on the touchscreen but can also view it on the 42" LCD TV above.    The solution appears to be to get a touchscreen capable DVD player (which I did not know until today existed) and then hopefully be able to output from it to touchscreen AND the LCD TV.     If this fails it's back to the DVI PC solution.