Yahoo Microsoft: Is the fat lady almost singing at $34?


Henry Blodget is whining that the Yahoo Microsoft deal is back to where it started, but I think Henry’s wrong … again!     

I’m glad Henry was wrong about the rumor that Yahoo’s Q4 would beat expectations because it was part of the reason I bought YHOO then, and even though the stock dipped due to a bad Q4, it surged on Microsoft’s offer of $31 per share so I’m well in the black.   But now he’s wrong to say the deal is not almost done.  I think this Yahoo Microsoft merger is coming very soon to an internet near you.

Citibank Analyst Maheney upgraded Yahoo this morning, anticipating a boost in the MS bid to $34.   Hey, maybe he read my blog post of about 6 weeks ago where I suggested Microsoft raise their bid to $34?    

Unlike Henry, I think this is not back to where it all started at all!

Yang didn’t want to merge, now he sees it as almost inevitable.  Yahoo board wanted more, now they know anything past initial offer is gravy.  Part of the show was probably the board protecting itself against lawsuits from the unlucky minions who bought their Yahoo at $35+, some at over $100.

Barring a Q1 miracle that would recalibrate Yahoo prices without help of MS bids, I think the fat lady is now almost done singing on this deal.

 Disclosure:  long on YHOO

Bay Area Driving Tip: Stay off the roads..


I´m in the Bay Area several times each year, but I never get used to the traffic here, which seems to get worse each year.

A good tip I am finally starting to follow is to avoid driving before 9am and avoid driving between 3 and 7pm.    Obviously that is sometimes not possible, but often you can arrange meetings and schedule around that.

I am usually driving alone here, but if you have two or more in the car you can use the carpool lanes which always seem very clear.  I think in that case the hours are not as important, though you will still get gummed up when there is no car pool lane.

Mashup Camp 6 returns to Silicon Valley


Mashup Camp 6 is in about 10 days and I’m really looking forward to the firehouse of new mashups, APIs, startups, and application information that’ll be there.    I attened the first two which were both great, then missed the last three including Dublin which would really have been fun. 

Incredibly, this *four day* technology conference is free of charge.  This is especially notable because from an education point of view Mashup Camp is arguably one of the very best conferences in Silicon Valley, laregely because it’s run in large part by the participants and this always leads to excellent levels of interaction and information flow.    Everybody knows that the best conference stuff often happens in the halls or after hours when you can really get into good conversations with speakers and other folks, where at Mashup Camp this type of interaction is more likely to happen right in the sessions which are generally very unstructured and informal. 

Organizer David Berlind had actually started out by charging some attendance fees this time – partly just to reduce the number of no-shows that can make conference planning even more difficult.  But concerns about the fees led him to refund them all, making the conference totally free, supported by the many sponsors who help with everything from the espresso cart to the excellent lunches and great Mashup party on Wednesday Night.   I’m not clear why anybody would protest the trivial $35 for developers and observers, though people who routinely pony up that much on a bar tab can be notoriously cheap when paying for education.   Perhaps though the protests came from some of the Venture Capital folks for whom the formerly free entry fee was boosted to several thousand.   

TED Conference non-attendee list publication proposal.


More important than Valleywag‘s mildly controversial publication of TED Conference attendees is my proposed publication of TED non-attendees, which would take a forest of paper and list some 6,499,999,000 of the world’s 6.5 billion people.    The non-TED list would have more dumb people than the TED list, but arguably would be on the order of 6.5 million times more representative.

Ted Conference

Matt Ingram is *right again* (!) about why the TED conference is, at the same time, an exciting and provocative event and a bunch of elitist nonsense.    As an invitation only, $6000 per person conference the idea was to bring together many great innovative minds in the spirit of innovation and understanding, and this is a good idea.   However good ideas are not immune to criticism and TED deserves at least a dose of that as well, especially given the fact that almost by design TED insulates the attendees from almost all the real people in the real world.  

Matt has spoken for an enormous number of us who are conflicted about how TED is both a showcase and watering hole for some of the sharpest people and ideas on earth and also a den of elitist nonsense.

His criticism is nuanced enough that he won’t be crossed off the prospective list.    My concerns are deeper about TED.  I think the sensibilities of the TED crowd are not even remotely representative of those of most of the world, and therefore many great minds wind up innovating in the wrong direction or sideways.    My view on innovation is that it’s rare for a good evolutionary reason – too much innovation will often undermine stability, which is the hallmark of long term societal viability.    Innovation is the cornerstone of positive change for the human species, but we also need people to do more mundane stuff like … producing goods and services in the same old boring ways … at least until an innovator figures out a better way to build the production mousetraps.     As a wellspring of innovation TED doesn’t need to focus on producing things, but I’d like them to find a way to better integrate the beneficiaries of the innovation into the process.    The developed world has gone to enormous lengths to distance ourselves in mind, body, and spirit from the sensibilities of most people in the world – people for whom a decent meal, warm clothes, and a safe place to sleep are considered a luxury.     To it’s credit TED has historically done an excellent job profiling some of the innovations that will help with these problems, but I’m not convinced that the conference lends itself to really understanding the plight of the “rest” of the world.

Bil UNconference organizer Tyler Emerson over at the Singularity Institute reasonably challenged my criticism of TED, but I think I’m standing by it.    Until we find ways to fully integrate innovators, movers and shakers with a deeper level of understanding of their fellow travellers in our human journey I see efforts like TED leading us down too many garden paths of “appealing, sexy, exciting” innovations where what we need the most are simple and mundane solutions to problems of food, health, energy, and human conflict.   [Yes, TED showcases some of those solutions as well and helps spread the word, which is why I’m conflicted about TED]

I do want to applaud TED for opening up a lot over the past few years via videos and blogging.   At least “the rest of us” can now see part of what’s going on behind the curtain.   Also, any conference with Marissa Mayer in attendance has GOT to be worthwhile.

Ted Conference or Bil Conference?


Bil Conference

Here at the blog I have noted before that I think the Ted conference has a pretty high elitist component, and although I’ve warmed to the idea that most of the speakers there have important things to say I’m still concerned that the TED and other expensive conference formats somehow create a lot of unintended biases and effectively censor people and content in a way that is akin to our problems with US politics where purchasing access to things trumps giving access to the maximum number of innovative and clever ideas and deserving people.

There is now an alternative UNconference called the Bil Conference, and to TEDs credit they appear to be supportive of this venue which will be just after and near the location of TED, but won’t cost to attend.

Of course *free* conferences can also suffer from the challenges of non-representativeness.    I do think the costs of transportation and lodging provide a barrier to entry that keeps out those who are just looking for a free lunch or to annoy people from the soap box provided by UNconferences to anyone who cares to speak.

I won’t be attending TED or Bil this year though I’ll be down there for MashupCamp later in March.   TED blog

Web 2.0 Conference


WebGuild of Silicon Valley sponsored a great one day conference last week.   I missed the event but here are some pictures  courtesy of Reshma Kumar and Daya Baran, the Vice President and President of WebGuild who have really done an extraordinary job making that group one of the premier internet insider gatherings in the world.

This year Craig Newmark from Craigslist gave one of the keynotes.    He’s one of the most interesting folks in the internet landscape and it would really have been fun to hear his talk.      For me, the huge success of Craigslist, combined with the simple and spartan look and structure, supports the idea that the internet at a core level is about *people and information* more than anything else. 

Israel Web Tour coming to Silicon Valley


Following is a Press Release – this looks like a very interesting event for Silicon Valley:

IsraelWebTour Returns to Silicon Valley with 15 Hot Web Startups

California Israel Chamber of Commerce Announces 15 Israel-based Companies to Tour Silicon Valley

SAN FRANCISCO January 16, 2008 The California Israel Chamber of Commerce (CICC) has announced the selection of 15 startups that will be touring Silicon Valley as part of its popular road show. 
 
The Tour will kick off on February 4th, 2008 when CEOs from Israel’s most exciting startups arrive in Silicon Valley for a week of activities.  The companies will meet with investors, strategic partners, customers, entrepreneurs and industry leaders in a mix of private one-on-one meetings, roundtable discussions and ad-hoc networking events. The highlight of the week will be a public showcase on Wednesday, February 6h hosted at Microsoft where each start-up will present to the industry and press. The tour will end with a closing night party in San Francisco on February 7th.
 
Over 90 companies applied to take part in this year s tour.  The IsraelWebTour Committee selected the following 15 startups:
 
5min – www.5min.com
PLYmedia – www.plymedia.com
AllofMe – www.allofme.com
NuConomy – www.nuconomy.com
ClickTale – www.clicktale.com
blogTV.com – www.blogtv.com
Sportingo – www.sportingo.com
PicScout  – www.picscout.com
Qoof – www.qoof.com
8hands – www.8hands.com
Velingo  – www.velingo.com
Erayo – www.erayo.com
Semingo – www.semingo.com
PageOnce – www.pageonce.com
Journeys – www.codename-journeys.com
 
The IsraelWebTour is an initiative spearheaded by the CICC (The California Israel Chamber of Commerce) – a non-governmental, industry supported organization.  The 2008 Tour is sponsored by: Google, Yahoo, Adobe, Sun Microsystems, Microsoft, Lehman Brothers, USVP, Wilson Sonsini Goodrich and Rosatti, Elron and Gemini Israel Funds and the Israeli Consulate in San Francisco.
 
The IsraelWebTour is proven to be an excellent platform to present and accelerate emerging internet start-ups from Israel — offering hands-on tools, strategies and fast- track access to Silicon Valley s leading VCs, companies and industry influencers, said Shuly Galili, Executive Director, CICC.
 
About California Israel Chamber of Commerce
The California Israel Chamber of Commerce (CICC) is a not-for-profit, non-governmental membership supported organization dedicated to strengthening business and economic relations between California and Israel. With its wide and dynamic network of over 5,000 companies, business executives and investors, CICC is positioned to serve as a facilitator and active supporter for joint ventures between the two communities. Through its programs and activities CICC supports hundreds of Israeli entrepreneurs through their journey to grow, fund and advance their startup companies.  www.ca-israelchamber.org