Singularity Talks Online


Several talks from the recent Singularity conference are now online and linked up at the Singularity Institute website.    I just read the transcript of Google’s Peter Norvig who seemed cautious but optimistic. 

Norvig is clearly one of the key insiders working in one of the places where a general AI could possibly crop up even without human intervention, though I got the idea Norvig felt that was not likely anytime soon.    I was disappointed he didn’t elaborate on what Marissa Mayer mentioned to me last month after her keynote at the Search Strategies conference – the idea that search results for some queries are increasingly looking more and more like the product of human-like intelligence.    I should note that Mayer did not seem to think this was a sign of impending general AI from the Googleplex – she just thought it was a very interesting development.

Google + Doubleclick? Microsoft cries “Advertiser Monopolizer!”


Dana Baran over at WebGuild blog has a great short article summarizing Microsoft’s case against a Google takeover of Doubleclick.   The chart (from the MS legal team?) has what appears to be an excellent summary of the total online advertising spend.  I assume this is for 2006 but not sure.   It shows approximately a 20 billion total ad spend with Google scooping up 30% followed by Doubleclick at 22%, Yahoo at 19%, Microsoft at 17%, and all the rest at 12%. 

Microsoft’s point seems to be that Google and Doubleclick should not merge because, as the two leading recipients of online advertising revenue, this would create a player with more than half the market and thus too much power over the marketplace and advertisers. 

Improving Google


Ha – it’s presumptuous to suggest improvements to huge companies like Google, but that is what the internet, and blogging in particular, is all about.    Master UK SEO  Dave Naylor has got five suggestions over at his blog and several others have chimed in.     I wasn’t sure why  Dave suggested clustering all the WordPress sites, forcing people to get a new domain, but this small inconvenience might be a good form of spam filtering because it prevents spammers from using free WordPress sites.       There’s now a conflict between the desire of search engines to screen out “junk” content and spammers and the desire to rapidly include new content.    It is not as easy as many like to think to even define junk content.    Last year I had a good talk with Brian White of Google’s search quality team about how to “value” content.  I posed a question along these lines:

What if you have two sites that are extremely similar in content and quality.
Both are about pet cats.
Both are of horrible quality with terrible grammer, bad facts, and spelling errors.

Site 1 is from  a spammer to boost rankings for a site selling pet food.
Site 2 is from a 3rd grade student working hard on her school report.

In this case site 1 is spam and site 2 is not, but how does Google tell the difference since they are virtually identical?

His answer was to suggest that the links structure in to these sites is likely to be different, and that through this you could probably determine which was the “real” and which was the “spam” site.

Of course this gets even more interesting when you make site 1 – the “spammy” site – of much higher quality.    In that case you might have a case where 99% of all users would prefer going to the site that is trying to manipulate Google but Google has removed that site and left the lower quality, natural one.

This is a very interesting case because I think search has recently devolved into many such ranking challenges.   Much of the content pouring online now is specifically designed to fool the search engines.

This would be an example of what  I’ve noted before – how linking relationships built the web and now the value of linking seems to be hurting it.

Here were my 5 suggestions to Dave / Google:

* Paid site reviews to identify simple problems or penalties. The subtle confusion Google spawns from ambiguous rules applied to mom and pop sites who have no clue is hurting everybody, including Google.

* Implement “site ID” where all sites showing adsense must have a contact person who is identified publicly. Forward site complaints to this person.

* Have more Google parties but drop the cold hamburgers from Google Dance 2007

* Transparency on publisher revenue share from Adsense

* MORE transparency on guidelines and penalties. Less vague references to “sites built for users not adsense”.

C’mon Yahoo, C’mon Yang! This investor is still optimistic!


WSJ’s recent Yahoo story does not sound very optimistic about Yahoo’s potential to recapture the former glory Yahoo enjoyed in terms of stock price. The gist is that new CEO Yang is not going to “overhaul” the company, especially in the area of advertising sales where Yahoo clearly has enormous potential for bigger profits, and even a shot at eventually co-dominating the online advertising landscape.

It is this potential that interests me as a YHOO investor. Google’s done a fine job of monetizing internet activity in the search space, and GOOG’s capitalization of some 160 billion dollars reflects this fact. Yahoo was arguably too early to the PPC game with the purchase of Overture – the early leader in the PPC space. My assumption is that this kept Yahoo from innovating aggressively and allowed Google to sweep in with their contextual matching brilliancy and eat Yahoo’s PPC profit lunch. This feast continues despite the fact that Yahoo retains a significant portion of total online search activity and also remains in a position to monetize a large amount of other types of internet traffic.

Also, Yahoo’s making great strides in the Web 2.0 space thanks to a kick-ass developer team. Yahoo’s Flickr remains the best photo sharing application with a huge community. If Yahoo could use their 2.0 cleverness to crack the nut of better monetizing the traffic spawned by Flickr and even other non-Yahoo online communities like Myspace or Facebook it would be helpful to the bottom line.

Yahoo remains capitalized at a small fraction of Google – about 20%. This is consistent with the pessimism expressed in the WSJ article but does not seem consistent with Yahoo’s profit potential in the exploding world of online advertising.

There used to be a game where Yahoo employees would sneak into the Google lunch room to eat a free and delicious Google lunch. Jerry Yang, how about providing a free lunch at Yahoo and then focusing the employee’s attention on taking back all those free and delicious PPC profits?

Less glibly I’d suggest you focus on the Yahoo Publisher Network evangelism and monetization. So far Yahoo has failed – fairly dramatically – to gain publisher interest and loyalty in this lucrative sector of online advertising. Google adsense publishers are ripe for change and innovation in this space. Make it so!

Reinventing Yahoo


Kara Swisher at the Wall Street Journal is reporting on Yahoo’s trials and tribulations as CEO Jerry Yang works to regain the glory days Yahoo enjoyed years ago when Yahoo, not Google, was the internet wonder company whose upward potential seemed to know know bounds according to many stock analysts and tech watchers.

Here’s more from PaidContent on what some seem to think is a Yahoo mini-bloodbath.

At an SES Conference lunch table I was sitting with several well connected tech watchers and warriors and asked about Yahoo’s prospects. “They are dead” said one search marketing insider, noting that Yahoo search results remain easy to spam, leading to inferior quality and search problems. Another thought Yahoo needs to become the king of videos, essentially working to become “the” online network, monetizing with extensive advertising embedded in the videos. However the concensus seemed to be that Yahoo needed to move “sideways” and simply consolidate their second place search status in the hopes of stopping the hemorraging of morale and stock price.

On balance I’m a lot more optimistic than most about Yahoo’s prospects, though I think they need to get more comfortable copying Google in several respects. Also, given Google’s accelerating dominance in the online sector it seems an MSN buyout is the most logical course for Yahoo and probably MSN as well. This would allow MSN to continue to focus on their bread and butter with Office and Vista while bringing their clever LIVE staff in line with Yahoo. Yahoo would continue much as it does now but be an MSN “brand” for online stuff while MSN would seek to connect as tightly as legally possible their offline dominance with their current online weaknesses. Despite the fact that Yahoo is the clear number two in online search, it’s currently capitalized at about 30 billion, less than 20% of Google’s massive 158 billion market cap and only about 11% of MSFT’s 265 billion market cap. Is the Yahoo online empire worth a mere *fifth* of Google’s? Sure seems to me the answer is yes. Microsoft what’s wrong with you and

Yahoo – what the HECK is wrong with YOUHoo, too?

Disclaimer: I have some Yahoo Stock. Yes, I’m still proud of that!
No, I’m not making money on it. Wake up Yahoo!

Google will strike gold with mobile OS


Well, Google does it again with yet another online brilliancy. How do you market a “Google Phone” without paying a dime for hardware development? Engaget is reporting that Google appears more likely to release a mobile OS to multiple phone vendors rather than develop it’s own phone. This is a *really clever* approach because it will allow Google to maintain core competency focus on software and advertising, something that founders appear to think has been lacking lately with the many aquisitions. Also, this will bring market forces to bear to quickly lower the price of iPhone-like mobile devices. How does Google benefit from lower prices on browsing phones? Why, ADVERTISING of course! Ads remain about 98% of Google revenue and mobile ads are arguably the online sector with the most explosive growth potential. Rather than go head to head with the iPhone Google will continue to sing it’s praises and then simply scoop up all the juicy advertising revenues as users demand Googley browsing capabilities on their phones. Vendors may get squeezed by customers to lower prices on the phones but Google still comes out a big ad winner.

No wonder they can throw such a lavish Google Party every year!

Scoble: Facebook, Techmeme, Mahalo (!) will depose Google


Scoble’s provocatively suggesting that Google should fear Facebook, Techmeme, and Mahalo.   I think his key assumption is that these social media environments are resistant to spammy SEO tricks and therefore will do a better job of delivering relevancy over time than Google which will continue to be weighed down by junky content and spamming.

But … I think he’s wrong.   Google could be deposed by a better search tool, but I don’t think that will come from any of these three.    Techmeme is great and I think will gradually scale into a powerful blog tool, Facebook is already on it’s way to co-dominance (with myspace) as the social network of choice for many.    I’m skeptical Mahalo will gain much traction.   I have not been following it all that closely but Mahalo’s “top of mind” prominence seems to be more from Jason’s amazingly aggressive promotional efforts than from a natural rise in the ranks.    But depose Google?   Nope, not gonna happen from these players.

Palm Treo Problems


Ha – I just wrote about how unhappy I’ve been with my Treo 650 and to spite me it went into an endless loop thing after a hot synch and now the phone won’t turn on. I did find this nice Treo Troubleshooting forum post which has a lot of helpful stuff and links, but I also am deciding that my price point for a Google Phone is going up – way up if I have to buy a new phone in any case.

The Treo is too much an example of tech designed for tech people rather than regular folks. It’s a good phone though Sprint rural connectivity has been very lacking and I always find myself wanting a better browser and also a modem for my laptop. My old little sprint cell gave great modem capabilities even with regular service (Sprint only supported them in a marginally weird way after I bought a Sprint branded but “no longer supported” connection cable and software). I think they were gearing up for the EVDO stuff.

(hours later) I’m not finding an easy fix for the Treo problems so it looks like a complete reset will be needed. I’m reading for a Google phone now.

Google Phone almost here


Rediff is reporting that the Google Phone is coming within weeks. I’m skeptical it’ll be available that soon but I think this is a brilliant play for Google, striking at the hot iPhone market with a device I’m guessing will be similar, a bit better due to lessons learned from the iPhone, and cheaper. With Google’s branding power and very positive tech vibe they’ll be selling these as fast as they can produce them and if they provide the most robust connectivity they’ll beat the iPhone handily over time.

My price point? I’ve been wondering about this. My Treo 650 pisses me off about every time I use it, but I hate to trash that little investment. Examples of Treo deficiencies are the endless loop after synching which I just experienced this morning after loading my Google Party Pictures and now fear I’ll have every synch, a cumbersome proprietary desktop system, shitty modem capabilities, and a screen that is too small to use comfortably for browsing. In my view the key enhancement Google could bring would be a larger screen than the iPhone, though the iPhone screen is “large enough” to browse and view movies comfortably. But at $500 I’m keeping the Treo another year or so because applications like Google maps in Java give me “iPhone like” capabilities on the Treo, which I put to good use in the Silicon Valley traffic and road nightmare. At least California has very good signage. New Jersey could learn a lot from Caltrans.  However if Google can get down into the $350 range it’ll be hard to pass and at $250 I’d be in for sure, so go Google Phone go!   In any case I’ll be happy to switch away from Sprint which in rural Oregon is shorthand for “no connectivity”, not to mention the roaming I’m worried about while I was in the heart of silicon valley.   Hey sprint, can you hear me yet saying “I can’t hear you!”

Google Party Mountain View – yummy buffet goodness



Google Party Mountain View – yummy buffet goodness

Originally uploaded by JoeDuck.

The buffet at the Google Party is always great and this year was no exception with pulled pork, hot dogs and burgers and other delicous things including candy and ice cream booths. They don’t skimp on wine or beer either. Thanks Google!

Now, about that Adsense revenue share….