Mashup Camp 6 returns to Silicon Valley


Mashup Camp 6 is in about 10 days and I’m really looking forward to the firehouse of new mashups, APIs, startups, and application information that’ll be there.    I attened the first two which were both great, then missed the last three including Dublin which would really have been fun. 

Incredibly, this *four day* technology conference is free of charge.  This is especially notable because from an education point of view Mashup Camp is arguably one of the very best conferences in Silicon Valley, laregely because it’s run in large part by the participants and this always leads to excellent levels of interaction and information flow.    Everybody knows that the best conference stuff often happens in the halls or after hours when you can really get into good conversations with speakers and other folks, where at Mashup Camp this type of interaction is more likely to happen right in the sessions which are generally very unstructured and informal. 

Organizer David Berlind had actually started out by charging some attendance fees this time – partly just to reduce the number of no-shows that can make conference planning even more difficult.  But concerns about the fees led him to refund them all, making the conference totally free, supported by the many sponsors who help with everything from the espresso cart to the excellent lunches and great Mashup party on Wednesday Night.   I’m not clear why anybody would protest the trivial $35 for developers and observers, though people who routinely pony up that much on a bar tab can be notoriously cheap when paying for education.   Perhaps though the protests came from some of the Venture Capital folks for whom the formerly free entry fee was boosted to several thousand.   

When computers can reason, will they want us around?


It is so encouraging to see maintream press, like the Financial Times, reporting on what I think will become the the key issue of our lifetime – conscious machines.   Although this article pretty much dodges the most intriguing aspects of the debate over AI, rational computers, and consciousness  it does offer some insights into the state of the science in the semantic web, where AI routines are used to create a better search experience.

One researcher suggests that he’s given up on the idea that simply creating a massive neural network and priming it with some info will lead to conscious thought but I still think that hypothesis has not been tested nearly enough because our computing capacity is still far short of what you and I have between our ears in the three pounder we call a brain.    Brains offer a spectacular number of individual neurons, and in turn a simply staggering number of interconnections between those neurons.   It will be another decade or so before we have that processing capacity in computers, but it will certainly happen.   I’ll be surprised if our consciousness and intellectual abilities are as profoundly amazing as we like to …. think they are.    In fact I’d wildly predict that we’ll have conscious machines within 20 years and that those conscious machines will surpass us in every imaginable intellectual and creative ability within months – probably days – of consciousness.    Is this because I’m hugely optimistic about technology?    NO!   It’s because I’m hugely confident we overrate our feeble human abilities, which I’d suggest are just a few shades richer than those of our dogs and cats.

Compete.com sale a champagne moment? Not at ~8% per year return it’s not.


Update:  Silicon Valley Insider is reporting that there is an additional 75MM in the deal as an “earnout” over the next several years.   That may make this deal sweeter than it appears at first.

At first glance you’d think the sale of website COMPETE.com, which measures web traffic, for 75MM must have been a big payday for a lot of folks.   However as Venture Beat notes some 43MM of venture capital had been poured into  COMPETE over the past 8 years.  

Assuming most of this came at the beginning of the cycle, and assuming most of the 75MM is going to the VCs, the return on this VC investment would be a very modest 8-10%.    If the founders and workers also had a decent stake in the sale this return could be lower – approaching what the VCs might have realized with long term CDs over the same time period.     Break out the champagne?

I’ve noted before the dirty little secret of many “successful” venture capital deals – they often make a very modest return when time is factored in properly.   In fact it appears that *most* VC deals lose money for the players.    Data is sketchy, and obviously only the winners are happy to share the details making it very difficult to analyze this since many (most) of these deals are not in the public record.  

Sure there are VC winners like Fred Wilson and Jeff Clavier, both very clever VCs who blog some of the details of their failures and successes.    However I think this is not typical, as Jeff even suggested here at the blog some time ago.

Why does online chat support almost always fail to solve the problem? And take so long? And generally just suck?


I’m on the online chat support with Palm right now trying to figure out how to get my Treo 650 to work in China and collect more information for my  Cell phones in China post.    As with other online help systems I’ve tried – almost always with regrets – I’m finding the online chat experience very frustrating and inefficient and time consuming.    Inefficient enough that I’m able to do this blog post while chatting, and learning that the technician appears to have far less information than I’ve already collected about how to get my Treo to work in China.  You’d think this would be a simple question and they’d have a nice FAQ but no, he’s sticking with me which I sort of appreciate, but so far all I have learned is the the Treo wil work in China but he’s not sure about the Sprint Network.  Unless I’ve missed something he’s missing the whole point here – you need unlocking and a SIM card which you normally purchase in China.

The failure of these chat support systems is really interesting because it seems like it should be a good way for a single support person to handle dozens of questions.  For some they’d know the answer immediately and send people on their merry way, while more complicated questions could be answered by using their databases, FAQs, and internet.    Yet generally I find that a phone call is more effective in drilling down to the issue and even faster unless you are on a very long hold.

OK, after over 30 minutes I have absolutely NO information I did not have before.  A total waste of time again:

LiveAssist Chat
 Status: Analyst Silas is here and your issue status is: working
Problem: Need to use Treo 650 in China

if (g_bContactLater) document.write(laterBttn.Instantiate());User Joe_Hunkins has entered room

Joe_Hunkins(Sun Mar 2 11:19:13 PST 2008)>

Hello -  I'm travelling to Shanghai and Beijing and want to take my Sprint Treo 650.    Is this possible?  What is best way to allow me to use the phone in China for about 2 hours calling total?  Will a China Mobile SIM Card work in Sprint Treo 650 in China? How do I "unlock" the phone? THANKS!      


We are experiencing higher than usual service times. Please wait and an analyst will be with you shortly.

We are experiencing higher than usual service times. Please wait and an analyst will be with you shortly.

We are experiencing higher than usual service times. Please wait and an analyst will be with you shortly.

analyst Silas has entered room

Silas(Sun Mar 2 11:36:41 PST 2008)>Hello Joe_Hunkins, Thank you for contacting Palm Technical Support. My name is Silas. How may I help you?
Silas(Sun Mar 2 11:36:54 PST 2008)>

Hello.

Joe_Hunkins(Sun Mar 2 11:38:26 PST 2008)>

hello

Joe_Hunkins(Sun Mar 2 11:38:37 PST 2008)>

Joe_Hunkins(Sun Mar 2 11:19:13 PST 2008)>Hello -  I'm travelling to Shanghai and Beijing and want to take my Sprint Treo 650.    Is this possible?  What is best way to allow me to use the phone in China for about 2 hours calling total?  Will a China Mobile SIM Card work in Sprint Treo 650 in China? How do I "unlock" the phone?   

Silas(Sun Mar 2 11:38:35 PST 2008)>

I understand that you want to take your phone to china.

Joe_Hunkins(Sun Mar 2 11:38:58 PST 2008)>

yes

Silas(Sun Mar 2 11:39:43 PST 2008)>

I will assist you with the issue.

Silas(Sun Mar 2 11:41:32 PST 2008)>

Treo 650 will work in China. However I am not sure about Sprint carrier network.

Joe_Hunkins(Sun Mar 2 11:42:33 PST 2008)>

How do I unlock the phone - that is needed to use a CHina Mobile SIM Card

Silas(Sun Mar 2 11:42:53 PST 2008)>

I mean Treo 650 (GSM) will work in China.

Silas(Sun Mar 2 11:45:08 PST 2008)>

Can I have 3 minutes to work on the issue?

Joe_Hunkins(Sun Mar 2 11:45:19 PST 2008)>

sure...

Silas(Sun Mar 2 11:49:05 PST 2008)>

Thank you for staying online.

Silas(Sun Mar 2 11:49:07 PST 2008)>

Locking and Un locking deals with the specific carrier. How ever we are not aware of that.

Silas(Sun Mar 2 11:49:35 PST 2008)>

I suggest you to contact your Sprint once.

Joe_Hunkins(Sun Mar 2 11:49:48 PST 2008)>

OK, thanks...

Silas(Sun Mar 2 11:49:59 PST 2008)>

Is there anything else I could assist you with?

Joe_Hunkins(Sun Mar 2 11:50:08 PST 2008)>

Nope..

Silas(Sun Mar 2 11:50:10 PST 2008)>

You are welcome.

Silas(Sun Mar 2 11:50:19 PST 2008)>

Thank you for using Palm Technical Support.   We value your inputs, please feel free to fill in the 
customer survey that will pop up once you click on the end session button to close the chat window.   
Have a great day!

Using Cell Phones in China


This post is about how to use your cell phone in China.    I’m having more trouble than I thought finding out the procedure but here’s what I think I know so far:

* You must have a GSM phone:   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_System_for_Mobile_Communications  My Treo 650 meets this standard.

* You must have the phone unlocked before the trip.  Usually this is done by your provider.   In my case this is Sprint

* In some cases you can buy an international calling plan from the providers.

* Cheaper service appears to come via SIM cards you can purchase online or in China.  These seem to cost about $30 and include some phone time as well as reductions in per minute costs for international calling.     I’m seeing about .18 per minute China to USA which I think is much cheaper than I’ve had with an International Calling plan.

* China Mobile is the big daddy cellular provider in China

Note – I’ll try to revise this and fix mistakes as I figure this out.

TED Conference non-attendee list publication proposal.


More important than Valleywag‘s mildly controversial publication of TED Conference attendees is my proposed publication of TED non-attendees, which would take a forest of paper and list some 6,499,999,000 of the world’s 6.5 billion people.    The non-TED list would have more dumb people than the TED list, but arguably would be on the order of 6.5 million times more representative.

Ted Conference

Matt Ingram is *right again* (!) about why the TED conference is, at the same time, an exciting and provocative event and a bunch of elitist nonsense.    As an invitation only, $6000 per person conference the idea was to bring together many great innovative minds in the spirit of innovation and understanding, and this is a good idea.   However good ideas are not immune to criticism and TED deserves at least a dose of that as well, especially given the fact that almost by design TED insulates the attendees from almost all the real people in the real world.  

Matt has spoken for an enormous number of us who are conflicted about how TED is both a showcase and watering hole for some of the sharpest people and ideas on earth and also a den of elitist nonsense.

His criticism is nuanced enough that he won’t be crossed off the prospective list.    My concerns are deeper about TED.  I think the sensibilities of the TED crowd are not even remotely representative of those of most of the world, and therefore many great minds wind up innovating in the wrong direction or sideways.    My view on innovation is that it’s rare for a good evolutionary reason – too much innovation will often undermine stability, which is the hallmark of long term societal viability.    Innovation is the cornerstone of positive change for the human species, but we also need people to do more mundane stuff like … producing goods and services in the same old boring ways … at least until an innovator figures out a better way to build the production mousetraps.     As a wellspring of innovation TED doesn’t need to focus on producing things, but I’d like them to find a way to better integrate the beneficiaries of the innovation into the process.    The developed world has gone to enormous lengths to distance ourselves in mind, body, and spirit from the sensibilities of most people in the world – people for whom a decent meal, warm clothes, and a safe place to sleep are considered a luxury.     To it’s credit TED has historically done an excellent job profiling some of the innovations that will help with these problems, but I’m not convinced that the conference lends itself to really understanding the plight of the “rest” of the world.

Bil UNconference organizer Tyler Emerson over at the Singularity Institute reasonably challenged my criticism of TED, but I think I’m standing by it.    Until we find ways to fully integrate innovators, movers and shakers with a deeper level of understanding of their fellow travellers in our human journey I see efforts like TED leading us down too many garden paths of “appealing, sexy, exciting” innovations where what we need the most are simple and mundane solutions to problems of food, health, energy, and human conflict.   [Yes, TED showcases some of those solutions as well and helps spread the word, which is why I’m conflicted about TED]

I do want to applaud TED for opening up a lot over the past few years via videos and blogging.   At least “the rest of us” can now see part of what’s going on behind the curtain.   Also, any conference with Marissa Mayer in attendance has GOT to be worthwhile.

CNN’s Anchor Desk blog – a great idea


Anderson Cooper is one of my favorite reporters because he’s sharp and pays a lot of attention to the critical issues in the developing world. 

He’s also got a great feature at his show AC 360, which is a blog open to comments during CNN’s nightly broadcast of the show.   Although most of the comments I’ve read would not be considered deep or inspired this idea of having viewers check in with the anchors and provide feedback is a step in the right direction of more “Democratic”, news community driven news.     I’m not sure if this will ultimately make the news better or worse, but participation is certainly something they should be experimenting with.   Good for you, CNN and AC!

Googling the Comscore click metrics = indigestion


The Google / Comscore clicking clash is really an interesting story from a lot of angles.     Comscore’s recent report that came earlier this week about Google pay per click metrics sent Google stock into something of an immediate tailspin, losing Google tens of billions in market capitalization as soon as the report came out.   However, today Comscore is claiming their report does not directly support the ideas that Google click ads are in trouble and that the recession is going to kill online ads. 

Comscore notes the two concerns others express from their findings:

1) a potentially weak first quarter outlook for Google, and
2) an indication that a soft U.S. economy is beginning to drag down the online advertising market.

And then says their report does not directly support these conclusions:

While we do not claim that these concerns are unwarranted, we believe a careful analysis of our search data does not lend them direct support. More specifically, the evidence suggests that the softness in Google’s paid click metrics is primarily a result of Google’s own quality initiatives that result in a reduction in the number of paid listings and, therefore, the opportunity for paid clicks to occur. In addition, the reduction in the incidence of paid listings existed progressively throughout 2007 and was successfully offset by improved revenue per click. It is entirely possible, if not likely, that the improved revenue yield will continue to deliver strong revenue growth in the first quarter. Separately, there is no evidence of a slowdown in consumers clicking on paid search ads for rest of the US search market, which comprises 40% of all searches.

I’m still digesting the larger report but it seems to suggest that Comscore sees *no reason whatsoever* from their data to assume Google will have a bad first quarter, and if I’m reading them correctly they are effectively saying there is reason to think the quarter’s earnings will *improve* because the revenue per click is improving and paid clicks are increasing?   Confusing because these are the almost exact opposite of the conclusion made by market watchers based on the same data.

Michael Clayton * * * *


This superb legal drama was one of the best films of the year with George Clooney in excellent form as the “fixer” for a large legal firm handling a massive and complex liability case.     Clayton’s friend, a manic depressive in charge of the case, is brilliantly played by Tom Wilkinson.    Fast paced, rich dialog makes this a joy to watch as the plot unravels and Clayton faces his greatest personal challenge.

Microsoft Fined 1.4 billion by European Union – market yawns


Despite a record fine of 1.4 billion dollars by the EU for failing to share code, Microsoft’s stock price dropped just a tiny bit today – a drop not even clearly associated with the ruling.     Given that the fine represents only a fraction of a percent of Microsoft’s capitalization and that it removes some uncertainty from the always massive MS legal equation it is probably reasonable to assume the market had pretty much fully incorporated the EU instability into the price of Microsoft.

The BBC Reports