USA Debt Rating Downgrade to AA+ is from our failure to cut defense and entitlements


S&P’s decision to downgrade the US debt rating from AAA to AA+ is very unwelcome news but it should not surprise anybody, especially in Washington where neither party has been willing to tackle the deficit or the debt in a responsible manner.

It’s time to cut the only two things in the budget that really matter – the bloated portions of Defense and Entitlements.    Even estimating (and then cutting back) the bloat at 10% – absurdly low given how recklessly this money is spent – we could solve all deficit and debt problems in less than a decade.   DO IT, DAMN IT!

The Tea Party’s was right that debt and deficit are major concerns, but their approach to solving the problem has been almost infantile, lacking in strategy as well as substance.    They won’t cut defense – clearly required to solve this problem unless you raise taxes which as they correctly note brings a host of other problems into the mix.   Defense spending is so high it’s become counterproductive, creating blowback and international tension which is mostly a function of our own reckless big spending in hostile territory.

One does not have to be an isolationist to see that it’s time for a much more strategic spending focus.   Troops can be paid well and protected – these portions need no cuts, but operations and maintenance budgets in each of the services are where the big money lies, and where the big cuts won’t create trouble for policy or troops.

The solution is pretty obvious to many of us out here in the real world, where two things are crystal clear:   1.  Entitlements are out of control.  The prosperity the USA has enjoyed for over a century as the kingpin of the  industrialized world is winding down in favor of spreading the wealth around the globe, especially to the developing countries of China and India.   This prosperity allowed us (and by “us” I mean everybody – from poor to rich) to enjoy health, welfare, education, and retirement benefits the rest of the world could only dream about.      Liberal middle class folks are whining too much about how they might lose benefits they never paid for – much of this in the form of “defined benefits” where their contributions won’t match their benefit so it’ll have to come from future taxpayers.   Social Security has this problem, but it’s easy to solve by lifting retirement age a few years for those who can afford the wait  OR doing a ” means test”  OR taxing higher income beneficiaries.   If we do nothing the Social Security trust fund will run out in under 20 years according to most estimates.      The fund is actually growing now but demographics in the form of fewer workers and more recipients will soon overwhelm the system.   Unlike a well managed system, Social Security has promised more benefits than incoming payments can support.

Summary:   Simple solution is to cut bloat in the two big ticket items of defense and entitlements.    Problem solved, AAA restored.  DO IT.

American Airlines to pull all AA Flight listings out of the Kayak.com waters


Although it’s too early to know if this is a significant trend, American Airlines decision to pull all their Kayak.com listings – reported here by TechCrunch – should be cause for great concern among the online flight ticking agencies like Orbitz, Kayak, Farecast, and more.

The power of services like Kayak lies in the ability to consolidate most of a buyers options on a single screen.  Even quality competitors like OneTime.com suffer from having too many screens in the mix, diminishing your ability to find the best fares.   As Airlines drop these services users will find it harder to offer the best pricing, and we will be forced back into the “old web” nightmare of screening dozens of sites to find the best pricing and availability.

Hotels leaving these services could doom them to failure.   Hotels.com is not all that popular among hotels but many feel the volume provided by Hotels.com makes it an essential part of their marketing plan.   However many online shoppers do not realize that their booking often includes fees as high as 20% and sometimes more to the online service.   Currently this generally comes out of the hotel’s profits, but as systems improve and streamline hotels are looking to book directly and avoid those middle man fees.  Consolidators like Kayak and Hotels.com should be very aware that their prosperity hinges on a strong and positive balance of participation by consumers and providers.     AA is throwing a small wrench into the cogs but there are many more to come.

Check your airline mileage program for major rule changes!


Over the years we fly several different airlines and if you are like us you have mileage programs for the family on each one. That makes tracking them hard enough, but rules appear to be changing as the airlines are squeezed by huge losses in an effort to reduce free flying. AA, for example, changed from a 36 month to 18 month expiration without account activity. It appears they didn’t bother to send a letter about this, though so far they restored miles to my account though I’m waiting to hear back on our three other accounts which collectively have more than one ticket worth of miles. I’m also having trouble with my US Air Account which appears to have expired miles as well, though in that case I was notified by them by email that was basically lost in the shuffle.

Let’s see if what response comes in from this:

Dear AA –

I am in a state of confusion about AAdvantage Dividend Miles for the family accounts. We don’t often fly AA because we live in a rural area not well served by AA, so our flights are every few years from big cities.

I called and they credited back miles I lost on my account, but accounts for my son, daughter, and wife appear to have lost the miles completely. We’d read on the last statement we have they “might expire in 36 months”, which would not have expired them yet. But when I called a few days ago I was told they expired a few months back after a change in the rules. I don’t think we were even notified of the change by mail or email as those accounts had no email addresses with them.

What am I asking for here? Simply that the miles be restored on the following accounts for another month or so so we can figure out what to do under the new rules, since we were under the impression they’d be fine until July 2008 based on the letters we have from AA:

(Account details omitted)
PS – l’ll be blogging this adventure at a travel blog I run, and would like permission to repost your replies, or if you prefer you can have a PR person

UPDATE: AA restored the miles and sent me this nice note. Thanks AA!:

Dear Mr. Hunkins:

Please accept my apology for the difficulty you encountered with the expiration of
your miles. We’re glad you took the time to write since it gives us the opportunity
to respond to your concern.

I have reviewed your account, as well as the accounts for your wife ***** ,
your son **** your daughter ***. As of today,
February 18, 2008, their accounts do show that their mileage has been restored (as
well as your account also has the mileage restored). Their mileage, as well as yours,
are in their accounts now, and you can view their accounts via AA.com at
http://www.aa.com/AAdvantage®.

Mr. Hunkins, we look forward to welcoming your family aboard soon. We very much
appreciate your family’s participation in our AAdvantage program.

Sincerely,

(name omitted)
Customer Relations
American Airlines