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About JoeDuck

Internet Travel Guy, Father of 2, small town Oregon life. BS Botany from UW Madison Wisconsin, MS Social Sciences from Southern Oregon. Top interests outside of my family's well being are: Internet Technology, Online Travel, Globalization, China, Table Tennis, Real Estate, The Singularity.

What happened to all my old clever ranting blog stuff?


I sure miss blogging here at JoeDuck, where I used to rant, rave, or just observe the world.  That’s what makes blogging so much fun but I’ve let other things get in the way of that too much lately.

What could I be doing that’s more important than personal blogging? We are remodelling a large old house for my son that we bought together and that’s taking a lot of time, plus I have other real estate projects that I can’t seem to keep in good order.   A large colony of bees took over a vacant house I had and getting them boxed up has  been an interesting adventure – not even sure my bee guy is still paying attention after 3 weeks though the bees seem to be slowly making their way into his box.

The big new online project is RETIRE USA, an excellent site about retirement with a super retirement blog .  That project took a long time to launch but I think we are doing something few others have done, which is create a large group of dedicated retirement bloggers who have expertise in many retirement related areas.   We recently qualified to be considered for a very substantial grant from Chase / Livingsocial and if we get that I think the site could take off quickly.   We are seeing some good traffic growth now as we slowly rise in the ranks for retirement related searches, and I’m hoping my “white hat” SEO skills are up to the task of making that work.

Speaking of SEO, I’ll be reporting LIVE in August from SES San Francisco, one of the world’s top Search Engine Marketing conferences.   Most of that coverage will be over at Technology Report where we used to cover SES but have not for several years.  It’ll be fun to get back into the Search Engine Optimization scene and see what folks are talking about now.   Social media has shaken things up a bit, and in my view Google has become much more conservative ranking websites, assuming (correctly) that almost all new websites are spam and therefore looking for “big signals” to allow new sites to rank well for valuable terms.   This adds yet another burden to new websites, especially those that seek valuable niche markets.   I think it helps old established sites such as our US History site which has been enjoying substantial traffic for some time.   That site was established many years ago and remains one of the top resources for US history information.    There’s a US History blog there although I have not been updating it regularly enough, working instead on other blogs like Travel and History  and a bit on my QuickAid Airport Directory site and blog.   Another project that needs attention is the AirportCityCodes.com website which has an old Airport Codes database.   That one’s acting up a bit and not showing Google ads for some reason – perhaps a fluke or perhaps it is too similar to QuickAid Airport Directory.

Another old site I want to restore to former glory (well, just restore to some level of coherence) is Highways.TV.   The concept there was really neat – assemble highway camera and road report information all over the world into one “easy to navigate” site.    I think that function has in some ways been replaced by mobile applications, Google Traffic, etc, but there’s got to be some room for a site that helps users navigate the many rats nests of state travel sites, few of which are well integrated into other information sources or easy to navigate.   State highway departments have enormous access to information and resources and put some of this information online but the bureaucracy prevents the levels of cooperation needed to do the obvious and link all these together so travelers don’t have to switch sites and navigation when they cross state lines.

Some would say I should stop trying to manage my huge online menagerie of growing, dying, and partly developed sites, but for those folks I have this to say:

“I cannot BELIEVE you actually read this post to the end – I owe you a cup of coffee and much shorter blog posts in the future” 

Obamacare Overview


Obamacare has not been high on my priority list even though it should be, because like many middle class Americans it’s going to change the way I buy and use health care.   I’d almost apologize for not understanding all the rules, but clearly *nobody* knows what’s up with the new system and equally clearly most of the comments and analyses from both sides are biased junk.    Here I’m going to try to post the few actual facts about the system as I learn them – though I’m also thinking of starting a website for this purpose.

ObamaCare “Individual mandate”.    This key part of ObamaCare will affect about 40 million Americans.   Not clear how it will affect those insured through their work, though most seem to think “not much”.   The Individual Mandate was upheld yesterday by the Supreme Court,  says that you need to buy health insurance or pay a fine.   The fine will start small and INCREASE annually.  At first the fine is small enough that healthy families like mine, who have used catastrophic high deductible insurance for decades.  [FYI America I think this was the solution to the health care crisis and we missed it – the Government should be providing high deductible catastrophic to everybody.  Routine health services should be subsidized to the degree people don’t skip them, but much of our care should be funded out of our own pockets, leading to competition and cost savings we’ve seen in, for example, the elective surgery sector.]

From what I know as of today families like mine may actually do better to pay the penalty and continue to “self insure” for most health costs.

What are the penalties for not obtaining health insurance from Obamacare?
2014:  $95  or 1% of your income, whichever is higher.
2015:  $325  or 2% of income.
Families 2014:  $285 per household or 1% of income, whichever is greater.
Families 2016  $2,085 per family or 2.5% of income.

More preventive care services will be covered:  mammograms, physical exams, colonoscopies and vaccinations will be fully covered by insurance companies.

Small Company Obamacare issues:
For companies with less than 50 employees the workers must obtain insurance themselves.   Companies with 50 or more full-time employees must start providing health insurance for all workers by 2014 or face penalties.

Entrepreneurs (I’m assuming this means most “sole proprietor” folks and very small businesses) will be able to use new entities (not yet formed) called “state exchanges” to buy health insurance.  These single business people will get a tax credit if annual individual income falls between 100% and 400% of the poverty line, which this year translates to $11,170 and $44,680.    The exchanges, in theory, will offer rates competitive with large group rates.   That said, in my experience large group rates and plans are often no better than individual plans, so I’m not convinced the exchanges will offer much in the way of advantages and may simply become another bureaucratic layer in the system.

Medicare and Medicaid:    It appears to me that folks covered by these programs will remain largely directly unaffected by ObamaCare, though clearly the new system will probably create changes in the way hospitals and doctors allocate resources, time, and innovation.

 

Stay tuned for more as we all figure this out together!

Alan Turing Google Doodle honors Computing Pioneer


Check out the most complicated Google Doodle of all time here, where the Google Doodle of the day  celebrates the birthday of computer science pioneer Alan Turing.   Turing is reasonably considered a founder of computer science even though he never lived to see anything like the current crop of machines we now find in our homes, businesses, and mobile devices.

The Google Doodle is representing a ‘codebreaker’ sequence.   Turing’s brilliancies in cracking encoded Nazi war memos led to major strategic breakthrough when he cracked the “enigma” code routine, giving the allies access to a treasure trove of strategic information about the Nazi war plans.

The “Turing Test” remains an intriguing part of the quest for general artificial intelligence.  Turing suggested that a major step in development of mechanical intelligence would be a human’s inability to distinguish the machine responses from those of another human.  Most current thinking suggests that a machine could pass the “Turing Test” and NOT be considered artificial intelligence, but Turing’s speculations remain some of the most important computing insights of all time.

Turing’s life was tragic in many ways.  He was gay in a time when the government prosecuted people for “indecency”, and his life was cut short by cyanide poisoning – most likely a suicide or accident – at the age of only 42.

Retire USA blogging team adds National Retirement Expert Debbie Grovum


We are really pleased to have Debbie Grovum join our amazing group of retirement bloggers over at Retire USA.
—————————
DEBBIE GROVUM NAMED FEATURED
BLOGGER ON NATIONAL RETIREMENT WEBSITE
(SARASOTA, FL) National retirement expert and Sarasota resident Debbie Drinkard Grovum, a Board Certified Coach trained in life, career and retirement coaching and owner of Ageinista, is now a featured blogger for the national website,www.RetireUSA.net and its popular blog (http://retireusa.net/blog). Launched earlier this year, the fast-growing website and blog were created to serve the needs of 79 million baby-boomers researching retirement options and exploring ways to live a successful retirement lifestyle.
Ms. Grovum, a Faculty Counselor Emeritus with more than thirty years of experience, is owner of Ageinista, an innovative company that provides services and resources that promote a vibrant and productive second half of life. She has been trained by and is affiliated with the Purpose Project, a joint project of the University of Minnesota, Center for Spirituality and Healing and Richard Leider of the Inventure Group. A respected national, state, and local speak, Debbie conducts workshops and classes on topics related to vibrant aging, living and working with purpose, creating a beautiful life, thriving in transition and cancer survivorship. Debbie divides her time between Bemidji, MN and Sarasota, FL.
With more than 6,000 pages of retirement information and a growing team of nationally recognized bloggers, RetireUSA (www.RetireUSA.net ) is quickly becoming the go to site for retirement information. With 10,000 baby-boomers reaching retirement age daily, RetireUSA expects site traffic to reach over a million visitors by the end of its first year. It already has more Twitter followers than AARP.
“Because every retiree has their own ideas of what retirement means to them, we knew are blog would have to be wide ranging,” explains RetireUSA partner Karen Darling. “That’s why we decided to pattern our blog after Babble.com a successful site for parents that features numerous bloggers.”
Ms. Grovum is joining a national blogging team that already includes Dr. Robin Miller (Integrative Medicine), Dr. John Kalb (Winning at Aging), Andy Baxter (Senior Fitness), Julia Ruscitti (Insurance Solutions), Mei Wong and Brittany Weller (Care Options), Ellee Celler (Real Estate), Cherie Henry (Senior Housing Options), William Ferry (Photography & Travel) and Tom Smith (Travel).

Grameen Foundation and Grameen Bank – doing global good 24/7


The Grameen Bank and Grameen Foundation have been two of my favorite “do good” projects for some time.   Today I had a chance to talk about their amazing work with Alex Counts, the President of the Foundation he started in 1997 with the help of Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohammed Yunus, the economist most responsible for the invention and implementation of “microfinance”, a concept that has helped lift millions out of poverty in Bangladesh and other countries.

Unfortunately,  some political conflicts between the Government of Bangladesh and the Grameen Bank  (though NOT the foundation), threaten to disrupt the Bank’s superb poverty-fighting work over the past years.

I’ve written to the Bangladesh Government about this, and would encourage anybody interested in “making things work right” to consider doing the same.    One of the brilliancies of the Yunus economic model has been to reduce the impact of “middle men” and bureaucratic interference, and more restrictions and taxes on the Grameen projects will only lessen their positive impact on the extreme poor in these regions.   Also for those of you who STILL don’t get this, we will be helping to *reduce population pressures* by *elevating living standards* in countries like Bangladesh, so please no comments about how we can’t send aid because it just creates a bigger problem due to more population.    There *are* legitimate issues with aid and they are being addressed by great charities like Grameen Foundation (more on this in future posts), but in the meantime your support for the poor means helping the entire world live healthier and happier.   It’s not just a moral imperative, it’s a practical necessity to fix global problems sooner rather than later.

———————————–

Letter to  Bangladesh:

Dear Md. Masum Khan,

Thank you for the opportunity to address an issue I am very concerned about, which is the ongoing conflict between the Grameen Bank and the Government of Bangladesh.

I want to express my very strong support of Grameen. Although I’m not a legal expert, it seems to me this conflict is more political than legal, and I’m very concerned that restrictions on Grameen or taking over Grameen Bank would have serious negative consequences in the way the Government of Bangladesh is viewed here in the USA.

As you know it is difficult to convince US leaders to “share” more of our abundant resources and prosperity. Grameen’s stellar global reputation helps citizens like me make the case to our leaders to give more money – not to the bank itself but to help governments alleviate poverty in other ways.

US citizens and leaders are more distrustful of government than in most countries, so government interference or ownership of Grameen would jeopardize the credibility of both the bank and of the government of Bangladesh in the eyes of many Americans and American policy makers.

Like you, I want to see the people of Bangladesh achieve their full, broad potential and enjoy the prosperity we do here in the USA. I sincerely believe Grameen projects are making that happen and hope you’ll consider this as you move forward in your good work for the people of Bangladesh.

Sincerely Yours,

Joseph Hunkins

Oregon, USA

jhunkins@gmail.com or @JoeDuck on Twitter

Top Ten Retirement States? Well, eleven actually… plus my personal favorite, Oregon!


Retire USA keeps on growing, mostly thanks to some great posts by our many retirement bloggers and guests at the website.  Our goal is to become one of the top online sources of retirement information for the USA.

We now have excellent city profiles on about 225 US cities with a focus on the information you’ll need to plan a retirement in those states/cities.  There are over a dozen great bloggers writing articles for the Retire USA Retirement Blog, and over four thousand  individual retirement records, sorted by cities and into four key retirement categories:  Health Care, Financial Services, Retirement Communities, and Real Estate.

Thanks to the magic of Google’s custom search we have a Retire USA  “retirement search” (see top of page) that will allow you to search our site and the greater online universe for more retirement related information.   |

At the very least you should be following RetireUSA on Twitter for Retirement information so you’ll be alerted to the new blog posts as they appear online:   Twitter Retirement Information

So, what are the TOP TEN RETIREMENT STATES?     This is a *personal view* by yours truly Joe Duck based on limited research, but I think this is probably close in terms of the states to which most people retire among those who are *changing their home state*.   Obviously most people stay put for retirement, so simply asking “where do most people retire” is the same as asking “where do most people live”?      If you are searching for a new home our site is a great place to start, and here are the states I think you are most likely to be searching for.

If you think this is  NOT a good list, please let me know in the comments why!    Some day when I’m not as lazy as right now I’ll research this topic, though it’s often hard to find good data since most states are all trying to promote their virtues – I’m guessing there will be many “self serving” studies by economic development or travel groups to “show” that their state is THE place to retire.    I think the best test is probably to find the states that get the most people to *change their residence*, as this is a very good sign that you are doing something right … retirement wise.

California Retirement | Colorado Retirement  | Florida Retirement | New York Retirement | Nevada Retirement | North Carolina Retirement | Oregon Retirement | South Carolina Retirement | Texas Retirement | Utah Retirement |  Virginia Retirement  | Arkansas Retirement

American Idol 2012 is Jessica Sanchez or Phillip Phillips ?


Like much of the West Coast I’m waiting for tonight’s results on American Idol, but most of America ALREADY KNOWS the winner!    I’m not sure who will win – the incredible Jessica Sanchez with unbelievable vocal talent or the cute and clever Phillip Phillips who seems to be getting by more on his looks than his musicality, though you would not know this from some of the odd comments last night after he performed a song written by others for the finale – unfortunately a “better song” than the one Jessica Sanchez sang.

I’m a little frustrated because I’d like to see musical brilliancy triumph here, and Sanchez is one of the best singers to ever come out of this show.   Philip, on the other hand, is more of a hearthrob for the shows legions of young female fans.    He’s good, but hes not THAT good!

What is YOUR life worth? In Dollars that is. $600,000 to $13.5 Million depending on …


I’m bumping up this old post about the value of life in dollars because it’s a VERY interesting topic, and I’ll try to update this with more information eventually since there must be new studies.   WHAT ARE YOU WORTH?

Most importantly I want to stress how important it is that we DO in fact value lives in this fashion.   Many people foolishly cringe at the notion of placing value on lives, suggesting that “life is priceless” and therefore we can’t do this.  

The problem with that naive view is that WE DO THIS ALL THE TIME!   We just do it indirectly.   In fact in wars we spend a LOT of money to kill a LOT of people in an effort to make the world a safer place (or protect our own national interests).   In that case we are actually placing a negative value on certain lives.   e.g.  the US spent billions to kill Bin Laden, which meant the value on his life was actually a negative number!    The argument in that case is that killing Bin Laden, costly as it was in blood and treasure, would save many thousands of lives in the future.    Reasonable people can disagree on the merits in that type of case, but clearly we should be using some sort of standard metrics rather than whim and politics as we decide how to allocate resources to lives and to deaths both in war and in life affirming endeavors.

Whenever you take risks or subject your family or others to risk you effectively create a value relationship.   Drive over the speed limit to work in the morning?     By doing that you have both broken the law AND you have subjected yourself and others to the increased risk of faster driving speeds.    Yes, YOU DID!    No big deal because we do this type of thing all the time, but it’s important for people to start recognizing the risk / reward / convenience / money relationships  we create every day as we go about our daily lives.    The bureaucracy is absolutely right to work out equations that look at the costs and benefits of life saving measures, because without these we apply funding willy – nilly (as is often the case), leading to very inefficient spending patterns that are created from political spending.

The BEST example of this cost effectiveness  approach writ very large and brilliantly is the Copenhagen Consensus, an effort by statisticians, scientists and economists (including several nobel prize winners) to allocate limited resources in a more intelligent fashion.    It’s incredibly to me ho unwilling most people are to apply this type of approach, but I think the root of the challenge is that folks don’t realize how poorly we currently allocate resources.    Military spending, for example, is much larger than most Americans understand and the things purchased often have pathetic returns on the investments.  Yet both democrats and republicans favor the ongoing massive spending for political reasons.    As Ron Paul very cleverly noted in a presidential debate we need a strong defense, not an expensive one.  Of course there are even more examples of waste on the entitlement side of Government spending and literally millions of wasteful efforts on the private side of spending, but that’s fodder for other posts.

——— from my 2006 post ———–

This cost allocation study Notes that the EPA is willing to spend almost twice what the Dept of Transportation is willing to spend to keep YOU alive. The numbers seem old so there may be some adjustments, but interesting is this:

In policy and regulatory analyses, EPA uses a value of $4.8 million to represent the cost of a premature death. This value is the mean of estimates from 26 studies dating back to the mid 1970s that have attempted to place a value on the cost of premature deaths. Estimates from those studies range from $0.6 million to $13.5 million, reflecting the large uncertainties in trying to estimate the public’s willingness to pay to avoid premature death.

The Department of Transportation has adopted a value of $2.7 million per premature death, based on a comprehensive 1991 study by the Urban Institute

People are reluctant to accept this type of “dollar valuation” analysis even though it’s commonplace in legal settlements and is a VERY APPROPRIATE way to allocate public funds. Note that the 4.8 million dollars the EPA spends to save a life would save thousands of lives if spent in alternative ways. One can argue that the complexity of this type of analysis undermines the rationale behind using this “lives for dollars” game, but it’s a weak argument. Yet even with this appropriate method of trying to allocate dollars to lives and then allocate them most effectively, we tend to apply funding in odd ways and squander billions due to political budgeting.

2010 Census Data for Oregon


I’m in the process of working with the 2010 Census Data, trying to find ways to bring that amazing content into our Online Highways Travel site at OHWY.com.

Below is the state profile which should appear in an iframe but can’t because WordPress is removing it.  That can be fixed via a plugin but I probably won’t hassle with that here since the embeds will be at websites.

I’m a little disappointed that they haven’t made it super easy to incorporate city by city data into websites (or maybe I just have not found that), but ultimately that might be good for our travel site since fewer sites will be willing to reprocess the billions of bytes we’ll be downloading from the Census.

Ideally I want to incorporate OLD census information as well, allowing folks to do some geographical geneaology via our US History, Travel, US Retirement, and Oregon Coast Travel websites.

http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/embedstate.html?state=OR