Dave Winer’s Final Signup?


Dave Winer is both right on and I fear way too optimistic when, in his discussion of Facebook’s value, he says:

I’m tired of building networks of friends, over and over.
Next time I do it, it’ll be for keeps.

Dave I only wish this were true, but I think you’ll need to be pretty stubborn *or* very socially innovative (hey, you -are- innovative!  Do it!)  to fix the problem of the proliferation of way too many social networks with way too few standards to simplify the whole mess.     But I’m with you if you want to start insisting on some standards – basically some sort of informal understanding among social network users that we won’t sign up for any more social networks until there is a way to port that info safely, easily, seamlessly to other social networks with     I don’t understand why this standard has been so elusive but I think it’s simply that markets have been driving things and there has, until very recently, been too little or negative incentive to make this happen.    As Dave notes Facebook’s open approaches may make them the ultimate social application, leading me to wonder if I was too pessimistic to suggest Facebook’s not worth what many say they should fetch in a buyout.

The Blogging Revolution has begun! (?)


Kent Newsome has sounded the clarion call for a blogging revolution, and I for one am *in*. Mark July 4, 2007 as the beginning of the revolution that will bring down the tired elite establishment in favor of more prominence for fresh new voices.

I’m tired of reading the same old people who in some cases are too busy chasing dollars to blog nearly as creatively as they did in the old days (ie a year ago). The more ominous case is the new trend in blogging that has “A listers” effectively (even if not literally) shilling for big corporations under the provocative guise called “conversational marketing”.

I’ve already replaced some A listers with some less prominent but more interesting bloggers and over the next week I’m going to remove all the A listers in favor of new voices. In one sense this isn’t fair to the A-list folks who still have interesting and clear voices, but on balance it is sort of like “affirmative action” for blogging. Search engines tend to favor bloggers who have older and abundant links. Early bloggers have both not because they are profound, but just because they were around early on in the linking process when there were fewer voices of any kind and money had not entered (and distorted) the blogging equation. Search ranking quirks have effectively distorted the ranking of bloggers to such an extent that the small number of ‘A listers’ have far too dominant a voice in many tech blog topics. I’d like to see that end ASAP, so I’ll do what little I can to make it happen and encourage others to do the same.

More from Gaping Void

MSNBC on “the A list”

The World According to Cutts


I really like Matt Cutts. He’s one of the most personable people in the search business while at the same time discussing and blogging complex search topics in an articulate and authoritative way.

Two really interesting issues are in discussion over at Matt’s blog. The first is Lauren’s controversial “official” Google post criticizing the movie Sicko and suggesting that advertising purchases at Google are the best way to win the info wars. Here’s my take on that little episode:

The challenge with big company “official” blogs is that they tend to suck. They are at best basic information outlets and at worst bad PR nightmares. Not because the authors are bad people, but because “official” company blogs reverse the optimal relationship between blogger and reader. For example here, at Jeremy Zawodny, and at Scoble (when he was with MS), the blogger develops a trusted, somewhat personal relationship with the reader. A company blogger can’t really do that. They are generally trustworthy honest people but they are constrained by not being able to bite the hand that feeds them and also contrained by our expectation that they are beholding to the employer.

Ironically Lauren crossed this line in both directions by giving her own personal opinion (good) at a corporate blog (unusual). But her opinion happened to line up very well with Google’s advertising agenda (hmmmm) and her own personal agenda of selling more ads (hmmmm).

The debates over conflict of interest at blogs are really heating up as they should until we can find ways to keep things transparent, honest as we continue to keep the discussions lively and robust.

The second issue is one I need to digest a bit more. Matt is rejecting the idea that Google’s webspam fight is a sham. Certainly Matt’s team works hard to fight search junk but the spam issue is a lot more nuanced than Matt acknowledges. Clearly there are conflicts between maintaining profits and providing users with the optimal experience. Lighter shading of Google advertising is a good example where it is unlikely users benefit from the lighter shading, yet it is certain Google gets a lot more activity from that User Interface “improvement”. Also, the definition of spam itself is very subjective and also very query dependent. If I’m searching for “Hotels” and get a list of Viagra sites the results are clearly “spammy”, but if I’m searching for Viagra those same sites may be exactly what I want.

Conversational Marketing is an Oxymoron


Well, I don’t think I’m going to be invited to speak at the upcoming Conversational Marketing conference by FM. I wrote the note below to John Battelle and I think it summarizes my feelings about why I think Conversational Marketing in the current “People Ready” form diminishes things rather than enhancing them. It has also helped exposed the very elitist vision of many high level bloggers. For the new media to be successful it must be highly participatory and democratic. Despite claims supporting this notion, I’m coming to realize that few “A list” folks have much if any interest in actively engaging with topics they cannot control. This is *very* significant because control of the conversation can be a potent form of censorship, even if “anything goes” once the conversation starts. For tech stuff I think Techmeme shines as an effort to cede increased levels of control to participants more than to elites and hope this vision becomes the dominant one as the blogosphere matures.

——
I’m watching my favorite TV show , Charlie Rose, and noting the “sponsored by Pfizer” bits (technically PBS can’t run ads but they are effectively ads). My first thought was “hey, why am I so hard on FM when even PBS is mixing ads and conversations and they are not even a for-profit entity!”

But … upon further reflection I’d argue that the Charlie Rose PBS model is an appropriate way to involve advertisers in a conversation where People Ready was not. Of course the goal at Rose is not to have a *marketing* conversation, but I’m increasingly convinced “conversational marketing” may be an oxymoron.

I’m guessing Pfizer had *little or no input* in the topics Rose has picked for his science series, and they probably didn’t even want to – they wanted the *association* with a *real conversation* about science. Charlie drove the conversation, Pfizer gets their juice from associating with the real conversation.

Now, with People Ready the conversation was defined by FM and Microsoft marketing primarily as a marketing support vehicle rather than an investigation of topics of interest to the community. The participants were to some extent commercial “players” in the equation. With better disclosure there is no big deal about having prominent tech people talking about a Microsoft Marketing paradigm but I can’t see myself ever *choosing* to read that stuff, feeling that it will be filtered through a positive lens of an ad campaign rather than the critical lens of a real conversation.

Update:  Here is CNET’s take on the conference

People Ready for conversational marketing please disclose yourself, or better yet just go away.


OK, Tony‘s got the great analysis of the trainwreck caused by what Federated Media is calling “the birth of conversational marketing”. He’s pointed out that this is not about the integrity of the individual bloggers involved, rather the hypocrisy and most importantly the similarity to Pay Per Post. These points seem lost on the participants and some commenters like Don Dodge who seems to be suggesting that those who see this as more than a small advertising issue are “dumb as bricks”.

I have a lot of respect for John Battelle, but I’ve also noted with skepticism his enthusiasm for bringing advertisers into “the conversation“. I’m all for advertisers and I’m all for conversations but I’m very skeptical that these “conversational marketing” campaigns can avoid diminishing the participants as the “People Ready” clearly has done.

Ironically it has been the comments of the participants more than the campaign itself that have left me concerned about who I’ve been reading.    The best comments about this, by far, are coming from people like Tony and Matthew Ingram who has another post about credibility and the slippery slope of journalism becoming marketing.

Here is my comment over there:

Yes.    This story has fascinated me because among other things it has brought to light the *potential huge deficiency* of having “A list bloggers” and those who help them advertise try to rule the conversation as happened in the early stages of this fiasco.    This works in traditional media but it fails in blogs.  That’s a *very* good thing.

The defect is in spite of the fact that these folks are bright and very credible folks.  However as you note they are *at risk* of sliding down a new and very slippery slope where money trumps honest conversation.   It started to happen here and a lot of people got pissed.   (IMHO Tony Hung’s got this all exactly right).

Also interesting but not surprising is that the best commentary here is coming from people who are not the A listed deal makers of Silicon Valley.     Rather than whining about this they   should be sending a thank you note to those who are helping to keep them off that slippery slope.

Well, I hardly expect Tony or anybody to get a thank you note, partly because Mike Arrington and John Battelle have more than credibility at stake and seem to see this as an assualt on their business models.   They have a *lot* of money at stake in these things.     Big money.   Tens of millions from IPOs or corporate buyouts of their mini-media empires that are setting new standards in the industry.

Although I think they deserve fat paydays for all they’ve brought to the table, this fiasco has led me to wonder how much those paydays are starting to distort, disrupt, and potentially destroy the real kind of conversation that Tony talks about in the same way we’ve seen websites (including some of mine) distorted by money considerations trumping quality editorial and user concerns.       Katie Couric cannot responsibly address issues surrounding “huge salaries” because she’s in that game, and it has got to be harder (I’d say almost impossible) for John Battelle to criticize Microsoft if he’s about to pitch them for a million dollar “Conversational Marketing” campaign the next day.

So where does this leave us?     It’s simple:

1) Disclosure.     Screw what you have said about detractors pounding sand, Arrington – disclose your conflicts *more* or suffer the monetary consequences which I predict will be severe.

2) Democracy.        I’m replacing Searchblog (which has languished anyway while John was pitching FM) with Tony Hung and TechCruch with Matt Ingram.

3) I’ll be encouraging others to do the same.   We need new voices.   Real ones.

People Ready to shill for Microsoft are:


I’m leaving the list above blank because it is an exaggeration to impugn the integrity of the folks who participated in the Microsoft “People Ready” campaign as part of what campaign creator Federated Media is calling “the birth of conversational marketing”. But it’s not an exaggeration to suggest that something smells bad about this approach, which manages to cozy up advertisers and editorializers in a way that would make a real journalist blush. But not many participants are blushing and we’re not even seeing any clear thinking on the topic except from Om Malik.

Mike Arrington is being downright ornery, essentially arguing that it’s OK to shill as long as it’s for a lame campaign (hmmm – so it would be wrong to participate if this campaign was brilliant and clever, right?). It was his recent and very cleverly titled rant that made me realize how this “conversational marketing” is a euphemism for old style advertorial nonsense.

The good news is that this is a chance to shifting my blog focus to some of the very insightful commenters who are making a lot more sense than the elite tech group. The advent of big advertising money has been distorting the online experience and many online conversations for some time. This is a natural thing. It’s a function of our human condition and as some commenters have suggested it is naive to assume this won’t happen. But when it happens it is important to point out what is going on! Also it’s hypocritical for those participating to suggest this “campaign participation” is fundamentally different from the practice they routinely excoriate, the growing “Pay Per Post” blogging that also distorts the conversation in an attempt to raise search rankings and prominence for advertiser-driven topics. Even many commenters are missing this obvious point. No, the People Ready people are not blogging about the campaign (well, they are blogging about it *now* but not in a way MS will enjoy) however like money in politics there is generally going to be conflict of interest when you mix ad campaigns, editorial, and money.

I think what bothers me the most about all this is that based on the comments those involved are mostly angry at critics because they are stepping on a potentially lucrative revenue stream. It’s clear to me that “conversational marketing” has already distorted the dialog about good blogging practices. Microsoft’s Don Dodge is calling those of us who object to all this “dumb as bricks” just because we are simply noting the obvious – that an advertising campaign is more than just the advertisements. It is the relationship between the advertiser, the publisher, and the victims.

Whoops. I meant “the rest of us”.

Does offline advertising really work, or are you just stupid?


If advertising worked as well as is commonly thought, there would far fewer advertising salespeople. I’m not saying in all cases “advertising does not work”, rather in *almost all cases* image advertising is not as cost effective as online marketing, and in *many* cases I’d suggest that offline advertising has a negative ROI for the sector with which I’m most familiar – marketing travel destinations and tourism related businesses.

Yes, I can easily prove this. Just give me any offline advertising campaign set of “successful results”, using whatever measure you care to define as “successful results”, and I’ll show how you can duplicate the effect for 1/2 to 1/10th the cost online. I may even be willing to fund this “experiment” for a destination or travel business if I could blog the results here.
I think big ticket / big brand advertising may work because it scales well. ATT can do a national campaign, reach people at a low cost per impression. Since almost everybody above age 15 is a very strong potential ATT customer there are far fewer “wasted impressions” than, for example, with a national campaign for Oregon Travel where you are advertising to many who simply can’t afford to make the trip or are very unlikely travel candidates.

Obiviously promotion of a destination or a business is critical to success. However promotion of things is done in many ways direct and nuanced. I’m suggesting that image advertising is low on the list of important promotion forms. I eat at the best restaurant here in Talent – Avalon – because experience shows the food, service, and ambiance is consistently very nice. When travelling I like to ask locals for recommendations rather than read a bunch of advertisements, though best is to have internet available so you can surf around to find the best restaurant. (I don’t like surfing with my Treo but I think with the iPhone we’ll pass the tipping point with mobile browsing for travel stuff).

For destinations here in Oregon like Southern Oregon or the Oregon Coast I’d suggest, somewhat educatedly based on 10 years promoting travel here online, that websites are responsible for more than 50% of the “promotion related increases” in Oregon travel economic activity. I’d guess, also somewhat educatedly, that the largest share of travel related economic activity is best attributed to word of mouth and general life trends rather than free internet or advertising or direct promotion (e.g. people visiting relatives, attending events, or people retire and finally have the time to “drive the west coast”, etc, etc).
The advertising mythos is as pervasive as many others, and the more I study “image advertising” the more skeptical I become. With auctions becoming increasingly popular offline and online it’ll be very interesting to see how prices will shake out. If the markets are as efficient as they could theoretically be, we’ll soon have some great data sets for comparing values of offline and online ads.

Facebook – Myspace = 100% revenue share


Josh at Redeye VC has some *excellent* points about the coming big battle between Facebook and Myspace for web developers:

If you ran a venture-backed company and had to decide whether you wanted to focus your effort on: (a) a property that welcomed you in and let you keep 100% of the revenue you generate or (b) a company with a vague policy that doesn’t let you generate any revenue, which would you choose? I don’t think it’s even a decision. It’s an IQ test.

However, it is significant that Myspace remains far larger than Facebook in terms of a user base and also important is that users, not developers, have driven the success of Myspace.

Facebook is hard to analyze because until very recently they had a much more restrictive policy on new accounts, opening them only to groups associated with businesses or universities. To join Facebook I initially had to contact my old alma mater – University of Wisconsin – to get an alumni email set up, then redirect that to my current mail. No big deal but certainly a barrier to entry. Facebook now (wisely) has opened itself up to everybody and (also wisely) is pursuing a very open approach to API usage and social media. Most importantly Facebook is going to allow those who build applications around Facebook to keep 100% of the revenue those create.

I think this “100% revenue share” is a brilliant approach because the Facebook “whole” will be much greater than the sum of these parts. Thus Facebook can make a *lot* of money through the extra traffic and advertising created by websites and developers and users gravitating to the Facebook social media ecosystem. The loser in this equation would be Myspace and other sites (that would be MOST sites) that try to create social media environments but don’t share much of the revenues.