ASUS, eee PC, and cheap computing: Watch this company!


I’m very impressed with my eee PC so far and it appears ASUS has a lot more cleverness in store including a 200 desktop and a larger ultra mobile computer in May.     This is an interesting play in that they are breaking ground in two computing areas that may have a lot of potential:  mobile internet computers for business and personal use and cheap desktops to capture the market of the millions who have one computer and want more or don’t have one at all.    The brilliancy here is that ASUS has set the price points so low that they are really no barrier to purchase.     Other UMPCs have been so expensive that the viability of buying one for the x/365 number of days a businessperson needs one was very limited, but at $300 for the cheapest eee PC  most traveling onliners can hardly afford to be without one until perhaps mobile phone technology creates usable keyboards and comfortably viewable screens. 

I recently wrote an analysis of the Airbook, suggesting it would have limited appeal.    Technically it is not a UMPC but it’s close, and I was also skeptical of much growth in the UMPC market.   However, as prices plummet things could change considerably as even school kids may start to sprout eee PCs as an alternative to tiny mobile phone surfing and higher priced, heavier, and clunkier laptops.   

ASUS appears to be a privately held Taiwan company, so … no stock available on public exchanges.

Google: We see no evil.


I’m very disappointed in the Google board’s recommended decision to reject a shareholder request for a human rights committee and anti-censorship rules.

These decisions make Google’s claims to be improving search around the globe ring somewhat  … hollow:  Official Google Blog: Making search better in Catalonia, Estonia, and everywhere else

Here are the details:
www.investor.google.com/documents/2008_notice_n_proxy_statement.html

I have a longer post about this  this over at WebGuild

Over there I wrote:

This is a sad day for Google and the recommendation is a death blow to their now transparently specious “Do No Evil” mantra. Google has an obligation to promote human rights within the reasonably confines of their business structure and goals. In this obligation, they have now dramatically failed.

Yahoo Microsoft: Is the fat lady almost singing at $34?


Henry Blodget is whining that the Yahoo Microsoft deal is back to where it started, but I think Henry’s wrong … again!     

I’m glad Henry was wrong about the rumor that Yahoo’s Q4 would beat expectations because it was part of the reason I bought YHOO then, and even though the stock dipped due to a bad Q4, it surged on Microsoft’s offer of $31 per share so I’m well in the black.   But now he’s wrong to say the deal is not almost done.  I think this Yahoo Microsoft merger is coming very soon to an internet near you.

Citibank Analyst Maheney upgraded Yahoo this morning, anticipating a boost in the MS bid to $34.   Hey, maybe he read my blog post of about 6 weeks ago where I suggested Microsoft raise their bid to $34?    

Unlike Henry, I think this is not back to where it all started at all!

Yang didn’t want to merge, now he sees it as almost inevitable.  Yahoo board wanted more, now they know anything past initial offer is gravy.  Part of the show was probably the board protecting itself against lawsuits from the unlucky minions who bought their Yahoo at $35+, some at over $100.

Barring a Q1 miracle that would recalibrate Yahoo prices without help of MS bids, I think the fat lady is now almost done singing on this deal.

 Disclosure:  long on YHOO

Facebook owes me $1.50 per year!


Over at WebGuild I was doing some simple calculations about my value as an information slave to social networks like Facebook.    Using their 150MM revenues last year and dividing by approximately 100 million current users, we get a value of only $1.50 per year per average user.

The value of an average user in terms of the capitalization of these companies is obviously much greater.  Facebook is (over) valued by some measures at 15 billion based on Microsoft paying 240 million for a tiny share.   By that metric I am worth $150 to the company.    By traditional stock metrics this should jive  in logical ways with the revenue and profit potentials, but the internet economy has shattered many of the old sensibilities about company values, which these days are largely a function of hype, competitive takeover strategies, and other unusual metrics.

Fubar stats are … F.U.B.A.R!


A recent report by Compete.com made Fubar.com look like the fastest growing website since the dawn of man.   Blogs were breathlessly reporting Fubar’s astounding growth rate of over 3 million percent.   

However thanks to some sleuthing over at Webguild, Fubar’s astounding success appears to be in large part due to changing the name of  the site such that previous site traffic was not reflected in the Compete.com report.   In fact it now appears that Fubar’s astounding growth may be *entirely* due to the name change which sent them down briefly to extremely low levels of traffic  last year at this time.   

Apparently Fubar has undergone two site name changes and redirections, and thus the Fubar site had almost no traffic last year because it had only existed by that name for a very short time.

Mashup Camp 6 returns to Silicon Valley


Mashup Camp 6 is in about 10 days and I’m really looking forward to the firehouse of new mashups, APIs, startups, and application information that’ll be there.    I attened the first two which were both great, then missed the last three including Dublin which would really have been fun. 

Incredibly, this *four day* technology conference is free of charge.  This is especially notable because from an education point of view Mashup Camp is arguably one of the very best conferences in Silicon Valley, laregely because it’s run in large part by the participants and this always leads to excellent levels of interaction and information flow.    Everybody knows that the best conference stuff often happens in the halls or after hours when you can really get into good conversations with speakers and other folks, where at Mashup Camp this type of interaction is more likely to happen right in the sessions which are generally very unstructured and informal. 

Organizer David Berlind had actually started out by charging some attendance fees this time – partly just to reduce the number of no-shows that can make conference planning even more difficult.  But concerns about the fees led him to refund them all, making the conference totally free, supported by the many sponsors who help with everything from the espresso cart to the excellent lunches and great Mashup party on Wednesday Night.   I’m not clear why anybody would protest the trivial $35 for developers and observers, though people who routinely pony up that much on a bar tab can be notoriously cheap when paying for education.   Perhaps though the protests came from some of the Venture Capital folks for whom the formerly free entry fee was boosted to several thousand.   

Farber in charge at CNET: A good move


Premier Tech news website CNET has a new editor in chief.  Dan Farber takes over today, and as a tech journalist *and prominent tech blogger* the choice of Farber is smart for CNET and a sign that blogging sensibilities are playing an important role even in “legacy” media outlets, though it’s funny to consider CNET – a groundbreaking online news network – “legacy”.    Yet in this rocket paced online world most of us now turn to TechCrunch before CNET for breaking and insider news.    Partly for this reason and partly because CNET can’t leverage internet efficiencies as easily as leaner and meaner sites like TechCrunch, CNETs traffic and profitability has been suffering for some time.   Farber’s experience may help to bring more innovative approaches to blogging tech news at CNET, and Dan will recognize how important it is to work to establish a social network that revolves around CNET’s tech coverage.     Mike Arrington has done this brilliantly at TechCrunch and it drives their very successful efforts.    Sites like DailyKos and Huffington report as well.  Others have built smaller communities around their blogs with more modest levels of success.  CNET already has a brand and a large body of quality journalistic experience and tech related content.   Let’s see what Dan does with all that.

YaFoxHoo? Now that makes some sense…


The rumors of a potential offer from News Corp for Yahoo are interesting and CNBC claims they’ll have some new news from news corp in a few minutes, though I’ll be surprised if this is more than rehasing the rumors swirling around that appear more as linkbait for blogs than substantial information.    

CNBC is referencing Jessica Vascellaro’s story at WSJ:

The deal would allow Yahoo to remain independent while giving News Corp. substantial control over a huge array of Internet properties and advertising opportunities.

News Corp, already a key internet player because they own Myspace and many Fox properties that have huge online visitation, could leverage the Yahoo aquisition to some advantage, perhaps through monetization optimizing, cross promotion, and such.    However I would not want to try to make the case to Murdoch that Yahoo is worth *more* than MS already generous offer.   As employees run for the door and the board is more interested in fighting than switching, I’m not clear Yahoo should be playing hard to get right now with anybody.

Disclosure:   Long on Yahoo

Yahoo Live … dies


Update:  Chad replies in comments below from the Yahoo Live team and I certainly agree that the rumors of the death of of Live were greatly exaggerated.  

Yahoo strikes again with what looked like a neat application – live streaming video for everybody – but woefully inadequate capacity to handle the huge interest in the beta.    The application sounds promising – you plug in your camcorder and start streaming live onto the web via your Yahoo Live account.   Although several other places have these services, Yahoo has the huge population and umm … server capacity …  to make this work for the millions of people who’ll be interested in chatting in this fashion.

Hmm – not sure if I should be warming up to the video socializing idea I viewed skeptically earlier in the year, though as I noted before I’m not at all bullish on the monetization potential of this type of communication, let alone monetization of video clips like those at Youtube – only the best “shows” with clever, engaging, or sexy people will do well in that regard, but I think this is another aspect of globalized social networking that is the new online paradigm. 

Who projects server capacity over there?     Based on the current home page of Yahoo live it appears it is only handling a few thousand streams when the thing went down.     

Matt’s got a play by play of the death of Yahoo live.

Robert Scoble on other streaming video applications.