Microsoft’s Vision of 2019

Posted on April 10, 2009 by JoeDuck

Thanks to Long Zheng for this post at his blog “istartedsomething.com” about a couple of Microsoft Videos showcasing the MS vision of gadgets and interactions in the future. The shorter video is neat but it was a sequence in the long one that really, REALLY got my attention. Using surface computing (which is already a robust application), on a transparent wall, two kids in classrooms thousands of miles away from each other were reacting in real time and in *different languages* as their voices were translated instantly for the other student. The technology driving this application is pretty much here now although I think there’d be some challenges making it work as fast as in the video, but this is the kind of stuff that is so provocative, powerful, and cool that it brings a technology teardrop to my eye.

In a world challenged so dramatically by a combination of ignorance and misunderstanding, how much progress could we make with technologies like this that cross connect people and cultures almost seamlessly? Obviously we have a long way to go and this is technology for the rich folks among those in our global family, but as these technologies penetrate into affluent or lucky schools the appeal and testing will continue until we can have much wider distribution.

http://www.istartedsomething.com/20090228/microsoft-office-labs-vision-2019-video/

Obama: We are Bound by a Common Humanity

Posted on March 28, 2009 by JoeDuck

Here in the USA many amazing social and financial experiments are underway. President Obama’s approach to international diplomacy really impresses me, and I’m convinced it will impress the overwhelming majority of the world’s people who, like us, want peace and prosperity especially for their children.

It’s not naive to believe that dialog and engagement are more strategic than warfare and violence. I’m all for keeping a big stick handy if the bad guys threaten your family or your country, but it is interesting to me that some Americans seem to think diplomacy is a waste of time when it’s better perceived as an extremely cost effective and strategic alternative to violence.

The world is an increasingly complex and interconnected place, and clearly we need to shoot *last* and ask questions and engage people *right now*. President Obama’s appointment of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State was a great move in that direction, and videos like the one sent to the people of Iran help make it clear to our friends around the world that we are …. their friend around the world.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/Nowruz/

Mr. President: This budget won’t work.

Posted on March 26, 2009 by JoeDuck

102

I remain a fan of President Obama but it has been painful to watch him and congress move to adopt the most reckless example of massive and excessive government spending since the founding of our remarkable American experiment. The founders knew that solutions spring not from large and cumbersome governments, but from the hard work and inspired innovation of a free and vibrant people.

The budget problem is another great example of how chickens tend to come home to roost, and expensively. After inheriting a spectacular financial situation from the Clinton years, GW Bush managed to drive up the national debt by about $6,000,000,000,000, doubling this critical measure of our future prosperity potential even as Republicans whined about how “tax and spend” liberalism was ruining the country. Note also that only a small part of this was war spending and war is not a legitimate economic excuse for long term deficit spending. As they shifted our costs to the far future rather than balanced the bloated budgets Republicans adopted a “don’t tax, just spend!” philosophy that is now …. wait for it …. being used by Obama and the Democrats to speciously justify spending of far-greater-than-biblical proportions. Meanwhile, having lost almost all of their “fiscal responsibility” credibility over the past 8 years Republicans *very correct* concerns about the new budget are reaching a lot of deaf ears.

Republican Senator Judd Gregg, who turned down a major administration appointment probably due to these differences – has been one of the most articulate critics. He notes that the proposed budgets for the next decade will create a massive wall of debt – probably an insurmountable debt – such that our children will have to choose between massive taxation levels or dangerous inflationary measures such as printing money to repay the huge sums we are borrowing now from other governments.

Senator Gregg is right on with this, and it will be tragic if he does not become a key architect of the solutions needed.

Democrats, who tend to choose optimism over realism, suggest that we’ll jump start the flailing economy and restore the prosperity train and live happily ever after. It’s probably true that the current budget and high spending will help keep the economy from tanking. Most economists agree we need a massive injection of Government money to stimulate things. However I think few experts – and even fewer real people (who often have at least as good a power of prediction) would make the case that we aren’t heading for major trouble down the line.

Much of the solution is clear:

Stimulus should be smaller, more targeted, and eliminate the tens of billions in costly projects with dubious benefits.

Health Care cost reductions should be massive, aggressive, and all options must be kept on the table. Europe and Canada have vastly superior models to our system with comparable care at half the cost. Whining about the relatively small numbers of underserved patients isn’t convincing anybody anymore. If free market enthusiasts can come close to Canada / Europe health costs then propose plans that do this NOW. Otherwise shut up and adopt a single payer or nationalized health care system. The “quality of care” arguments are largely bogus and designed to scare people into opposing cheaper solutions. The current system is not sustainable and we have alternative cheaper and viable models.

Defense cost cuts should be massive and aggressive. We’ve massively overspent on defense since WWII and both parties refuse to view this spending rationally, where ROI is measured in logical terms of achieving objectives. Simply eliminating the military pork projects will cut *tens of billions* We need to use our highly effective targeted strike capabilities, humanitarian assistance, and public relations to gain far more international support at a fraction of the cost. Note to Republicans – stop your knee jerk nonsensical support of indefensibly massive defense spending.

Entitlements should be cut gradually but eventually massively and as soon as the economy shows clear signs of stability. We’re living on the money of future workers, not our own, and if this does not stop soon it could be the greatest case of intergenerational theft of all time. With respect to many entitlement programs we are all little Bernie Madoffs, pushing the Government to pay us from money they are borrowing from America’s children.
Note to Democrats: stop your knee jerk nonsensical support of excessive entitlements.

These three measures would allow a balanced budget as soon as the economy stabilizes.

We must end the era of tribal thinking and “political finance” where the government – to please constituents and party hacks – keeps running things wrong and not in the long term best interests of the country.

Acumen Fund’s Novogratz on Charlie Rose. Fighting Poverty with Profits.

Posted on March 26, 2009 by JoeDuck

Charlie Rose was rocking today with two superb interviews that enhance and challenge our perceptions of how to think about the world’s most pressing problems of poverty and health in the developing world. [yes, I realize the global economy is part of this massive problem equation and agree that fixing it is of primary importance to developing world as well as to those of us who live higher on the hog].

Jacqueline Novogratz, a former Wall Street Banker turned Venture Capital Do-Gooder, on her book “The Blue Sweater” and her personal and business adventures using microfinance and entrepreneurial innovations. Brilliant: http://www.charlierose.com/view/content/10176

Connecting poor and wealthy to solve pressing problems in developing world: Acumen invests in innovative projects around the world, using the power of entrepreneurial capitalism to solve pressing problems of human need.

These approaches to development and poverty reduction are *so powerful* and *so effective* that it’s painful to watch how many people get bogged down fretting about issues like privitization of water and corporations as evil. We must focus on what *works*, regardless of our ideology. The best representatives of that approach are folks like Novogratz, Gates, Yunis, and many others who bring their business brilliancies to the challenges of international development.

Rose’s next guest was ethics professor Peter Singer on the ideas from his book “The Life You Can Save: Acting Now to End World Poverty”. Singer notes the major success of the Gates Foundation and also the fact that while most Americans tend to say they think “too much” tax money goes to international Aid yet fail to understand how small our contributions are to international development projects, and actually suggest we should send “about 5%” when the real amount is about 1%. Also makes the case that international development is actually in our own selfish best interest, but for many is not in our *perceived* self interest. http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10174

Economy: Are we there yet? Yes, we are. The Jim Cramer $25,000 Challenge

Posted on March 4, 2009 by JoeDuck

Update: Thursday saw a big DOW drop of about 300 where Friday was up a bit so I continue to think we are near the bottom unless we see some strong indications that the stimulus will fail. I think traders are basically waiting for new details on the stimulus and economic plans and trading quickly as that information filters in. I suppose the coming challenges with consumer debt may not be fully factored in yet but one would think they probably are and the new news will be along the lines of whether the stimulus is stimulating or not. I understand consumer debt sits at 4.5 trillion as people lose their jobs and home values and thus ability to repay. I am concerned that the stimulus is directed at bureaucracy rather than powerfully targeting lower and middle classes with massive jobs and debt relief and the upper class with innovation incentives, but I ain’t no economist. Of course the economists don’t have much of a track record…either!

With the DOW up about 150 points today [Wed] at the close, and optimism flowing about how China’s Government will pump up their economy soon, it is very tempting to think the worst is now behind us. Tempting because it’s probably true, at least for the next several years. My view (as usual with the caveat that you are as likely to gain trading insights from me as from the worthless punditry on CNBC (Yes, I’m talking to YOU Jim Cramer and I’m happy to bet you $25,000 you can’t outperform me in stock picking over any future period you choose). Don’t get me wrong Jim – you are very *entertaining* and I’m sure a fun guy and I enjoy your ….BOOYA! Silly TV show.

I’m just saying that you just have no more insight into picking stocks than a deranged chimpanzee picking stocks by urinating on a copy of the Wall Street Journal. * * *

Pessimists and doomsayers are pointing to the great depression where the initial 1929 market dive was followed a few years later with the DOW all time low = 41, some 80% lower than the *day after the 1929 crash*. This model of market behavior suggests we are in for a lot more trouble, but I think conditions now are so different that we cannot use that history as much indication of what lies ahead. The most important difference in my view is that the Government now is much more prominent and economically powerful than it was in 1930s, and even more importantly our Government is about to inject more money into the system than at any time in human history – more money than anybody can reasonably imagine.

Despite the inane and irrelevant rantings of the Four buffoons of the Republican Apocalypse – Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, Sean Hannity, and Joe the Plumber – the stimulus is very likely to at least have something of a positive short term effect on the economy, and the new role of Government as more of an economic babysitter than before is hardly sending us down some slippery socialistic slope from which we’ll never recover. In fact look for China to recover *first* from the recession for the very reason that when the going gets tough, China’s CapitalCommunist style economic system allows much faster and simpler implementation of the kinds of intervention that the Obama administration is struggling with now.

Thoughtful conservatives are suggesting there are likely better ways to stimulate the economy than pour hundreds of billions into state and federal government infrastructure projects and that’s certainly true, but we’re hearing very little about constructive alternatives to the contruction projects that will form the backbone of this initial stimulus. Rather, Republicans are now so busy trying to tear down the stimulus and (absolutely moronically) blame Obama for the crisis as if his 40 days in power somehow trumps the past 8 years of fiscal mismanagement and massive government spending which itself was only a part of the current problems. As I’ve noted before there is far too little attention on the single biggest group of culprits in the whole fiasco – everybody with a mortgage on their house who borrowed money, responsibly or not. It was this flush of paper wealth and the lure of more that provided the fuel for the derivatives and banking excesses. Many of us did not act irresponsibly or irrationally when we took advantage of the massive consumer lending boom with cheap and easy loans, but we also can’t claim that we have nothing to do with the problem just because we are not defaulting on the mortgages. Sure I’m for punishing irresponsible people and businesses – that’s a major part of what keeps our system better than others – but I also understand that I’m going to have to foot some of the bill for this mess even though I didn’t do anything wrong.

So, have we hit the bottom on the indexes? I say *yes*. We hit it yesterday and we now have more reasonable values for our fine American companies. Will things soon bounce back to their former glory? No way. The recovery will be slow and I think slower than the optimistic numbers we heard from Obama’s team yesterday. I’d guess it will take a decade or more before we see a DOW at 14000 again, with the caveat that we may see some spectacular, game changing innovation (e.g. conscious computing, near-zero cost energy) that would change everything very fast, leaving our entire global economic infrastructure in the dust. However I doubt we’ll see anything like that for many years.

*** Yes this is a real offer of a $25,000 wager subject to any legal restrictions that would restrict it. Money would be held by an escrow service of Jim Cramer’s choosing. Period would be picked by Jim Cramer. “Better performance” would be defined as a greater total return on the portfolio over the period without regard to fees or expenses.

Slumdog Millionaire means more than a movie

Posted on February 22, 2009 by JoeDuck

Watching Slumdog Millionaire scoop up Oscars tonight is more than a sign that this is a great film. I’d suggest it’s also a sign that the world is getting smaller and flatter and that brilliant, talented folks don’t all come from the USA. Although this film is a British more than Indian production, the appeal is thanks in large part to a rising India.

Of course we all have known for some time that there are millions and millions of talented folks from nations all over the world, but the lesson of Slumdog’s Oscar success is that we’ll be seeing a lot more of that Talent in a lot more venues a lot more often.

The Slumdog phenomenon is ‘in your face’ globalization, and its importance is significant. We’ve enjoyed
great success and prosperity in the USA much to the envy and sometimes the anger of other parts of the world. We’ve shared some stuff and hogged other stuff, but the new rules of a global economy have equalized much of the playing field – flattened the earth as Tom Friedman suggests in his book “The Earth is Flat”.

We’ll be reeling for some time from the negative economic forces created as tens of millions played the paper wealth game while the government fiddled and Wall Street schemed to cash in on the folly of a massive housing bubble. Yet this is likely to pale in comparison to the massive global changes sweeping over us at every turn. These changes are unstoppable and mostly positive if you believe in fair chances for everybody.

The overwhelming success of Slumdog Millionaire isn’t just telling us that the Indian themes and talent in the film industry are rising, its telling us that the whole developing world is rising up to match – and sometimes exceed – the remarkable history of American accomplishment and prosperity.

In this increasingly globalized world it’s not longer enough just to copy and expand on former great ideas – we all need to look for the best ways for *everybody* to be run faster, jump higher, and be smarter and more productive than ever before.

But before that I’m going to finish watching the Oscars…

The world’s most important “to do” list: The Copenhagen Consensus

Posted on January 31, 2009 by JoeDuck

The Copenhagen Consensus is arguably the world’s most rational approach to Government spending. The group, which includes many luminaries in economics, science, and development, reviews many approaches to making the world a better place and ranks them in terms of global priority. The approach takes the return on investment in terms of dollars for lives very seriously. Unlike political spending these decisions are looking at the most bang for the buck, rather than the most political benefits which are often strongly influenced by irrational concerns from lobbyists or personal agendas. Obviously there’s no perfect way to allocate money but it’s certainly the best major effort to date and people *opposed to this approach* should be the ones making their case against it. One of the most pressing reasons to move ahead with these efforts – even during a time of economic crisis – is that they are very, very cheap ways to do a huge amount of good both morally and strategically. The reason we do not proceed? Ignorance, pure and simple ignorance.

http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Default.aspx?ID=953

Solution	Challenge
1	Micronutrient supplements for children (vitamin A and zinc)	Malnutrition
2	The Doha development agenda	Trade
3	Micronutrient fortification (iron and salt iodization)	Malnutrition
4	Expanded immunization coverage for children	Diseases
5	Biofortification	Malnutrition
6	Deworming and other nutrition programs at school	Malnutrition & Education
7	Lowering the price of schooling	Education
8	Increase andimprove girls’ schooling	Women
9	Community-based nutrition promotion	Malnutrition
10	Provide support for women’s reproductive role	Women
11	Heart attack acute management	Diseases
12	Malaria prevention and treatment	Diseases
13	Tuberculosis case finding and treatment	Diseases
14	R&D in low-carbon energy technologies	Global Warming
15	Bio-sand filters for household water treatment	Water
16	Rural water supply	Water
17	Conditional cash transfers	Education
18	Peace-keepingin post‐conflict situations	Conflicts
19	HIV combination prevention	Diseases
20	Total sanitation campaign	Water
21	Improving surgical capacity at district hospital level	Diseases
22	Microfinance	Women
23	Improved stove intervention	Air Pollution
24	Large, multipurpose dam in Africa	Water
25	Inspection and maintenance of diesel vehicles	Air Pollution
26	Low sulfur diesel for urban road vehicles	Air Pollution
27	Diesel vehicle particulate control technology	Air Pollution
28	Tobacco tax	Diseases
29	R&D and mitigation	Global Warming
30	Mitigation only	Global Warming

Copenhagen is not focused on reviving the flailing global economy although I’d love to see us evaluate the types of global stimulus we’d see by funding innovative solutions to pressing global problems. New grass for the national mall might put a few fertilizer guys to work for a few months, but it would be a lot more interesting (let alone morally imperative) to throw a tiny fraction of that budget item towards some innovative new jobs in the health and poverty sectors, where simply improving health and reducing poverty will have powerful positive effects on raising the US and global GDP. Raising living and health standards lowers birth rates so one of the consequences of spending the relatively tiny sums budgeted by Copenhagen Consensus is helping to reduce population pressure as well as improve the quality of life for those already here.

Human Rights Day

Posted on December 10, 2008 by JoeDuck

There is a UN Inspired Human Rights project trying to get folks to blog, discuss, and reflect on Human Rights today so I thought I should reprint the excellent declaration of human rights document (below). Here is the Human Rights Day Website

Some sixty years ago, on December 10, 1948, the UN adopted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. It’s an excellent document and should continue to guide our thinking about human rights around the world. I’m sorry that so many critics of US policy miss the forest for the trees with respect to the US role in the human rights equation. Despite some glaring abuses in our country the USA remains a bastion of free speech, liberty, judicial stability, and personal freedom. Sure we can improve, but it is critical to recognize that the major abuses of our time are overwhelmingly a product of circumstances in the developing world, combined with our tendency to leave those parts of the world out of our sphere of economic and social influences. Zimbabwe comes to mind as one of many current examples of the deadly challenges of a nation with too little respect for human rights and too little attention from the rest of the world.

We tend to focus so much on things we disagree about rather than the majority of things where we almost universally agree. I can’t help but think it would be a lot more productive if we devoted as much attention to solving the problems we all agree about rather than arguing over those we don’t.

For me “life and liberty” is the key part, though even here you see how we need some clarification, e.g. in the case of criminals we can’t allow them their liberty:

Article 1.

All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights.They are endowed with reason and conscience and should act towards one another in a spirit of brotherhood.

Article 2.

Everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration, without distinction of any kind, such as race, colour, sex, language, religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin, property, birth or other status. Furthermore, no distinction shall be made on the basis of the political, jurisdictional or international status of the country or territory to which a person belongs, whether it be independent, trust, non-self-governing or under any other limitation of sovereignty.

Article 3.

Everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person.

Article 4.

No one shall be held in slavery or servitude; slavery and the slave trade shall be prohibited in all their forms.

Article 5.

No one shall be subjected to torture or to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.

Article 6.

Everyone has the right to recognition everywhere as a person before the law.

Article 7.

All are equal before the law and are entitled without any discrimination to equal protection of the law. All are entitled to equal protection against any discrimination in violation of this Declaration and against any incitement to such discrimination.

Article 8.

Everyone has the right to an effective remedy by the competent national tribunals for acts violating the fundamental rights granted him by the constitution or by law.

Article 9.

No one shall be subjected to arbitrary arrest, detention or exile.

Article 10.

Everyone is entitled in full equality to a fair and public hearing by an independent and impartial tribunal, in the determination of his rights and obligations and of any criminal charge against him.

Article 11.

(2) No one shall be held guilty of any penal offence on account of any act or omission which did not constitute a penal offence, under national or international law, at the time when it was committed. Nor shall a heavier penalty be imposed than the one that was applicable at the time the penal offence was committed.

Article 12.

No one shall be subjected to arbitrary interference with his privacy, family, home or correspondence, nor to attacks upon his honour and reputation. Everyone has the right to the protection of the law against such interference or attacks.

Article 13.

(2) Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country.

Article 14.

(2) This right may not be invoked in the case of prosecutions genuinely arising from non-political crimes or from acts contrary to the purposes and principles of the United Nations.

Article 15.

(2) No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of his nationality nor denied the right to change his nationality.

Article 16.

(2) Marriage shall be entered into only with the free and full consent of the intending spouses.

(3) The family is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the State.

Article 17.

(2) No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of his property.

Article 18.

Everyone has the right to freedom of thought, conscience and religion; this right includes freedom to change his religion or belief, and freedom, either alone or in community with others and in public or private, to manifest his religion or belief in teaching, practice, worship and observance.

Article 19.

Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.

Article 20.

(2) No one may be compelled to belong to an association.

Article 21.

(2) Everyone has the right of equal access to public service in his country.

(3) The will of the people shall be the basis of the authority of government; this will shall be expressed in periodic and genuine elections which shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by secret vote or by equivalent free voting procedures.

Article 22.

Everyone, as a member of society, has the right to social security and is entitled to realization, through national effort and international co-operation and in accordance with the organization and resources of each State, of the economic, social and cultural rights indispensable for his dignity and the free development of his personality.

Article 23.

(2) Everyone, without any discrimination, has the right to equal pay for equal work.

(3) Everyone who works has the right to just and favourable remuneration ensuring for himself and his family an existence worthy of human dignity, and supplemented, if necessary, by other means of social protection.

(4) Everyone has the right to form and to join trade unions for the protection of his interests.

Article 24.

Everyone has the right to rest and leisure, including reasonable limitation of working hours and periodic holidays with pay.

Article 25.

(2) Motherhood and childhood are entitled to special care and assistance. All children, whether born in or out of wedlock, shall enjoy the same social protection.

Article 26.

(2) Education shall be directed to the full development of the human personality and to the strengthening of respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms. It shall promote understanding, tolerance and friendship among all nations, racial or religious groups, and shall further the activities of the United Nations for the maintenance of peace.

(3) Parents have a prior right to choose the kind of education that shall be given to their children.

Article 27.

(2) Everyone has the right to the protection of the moral and material interests resulting from any scientific, literary or artistic production of which he is the author.

Article 28.

Everyone is entitled to a social and international order in which the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration can be fully realized.

Article 29.

(2) In the exercise of his rights and freedoms, everyone shall be subject only to such limitations as are determined by law solely for the purpose of securing due recognition and respect for the rights and freedoms of others and of meeting the just requirements of morality, public order and the general welfare in a democratic society.

(3) These rights and freedoms may in no case be exercised contrary to the purposes and principles of the United Nations.

Article 30.

Nothing in this Declaration may be interpreted as implying for any State, group or person any right to engage in any activity or to perform any act aimed at the destruction of any of the rights and freedoms set forth herein.

Mashup Camp and Convergence08

Posted on November 7, 2008 by JoeDuck

Looking forward to two upcoming conferences – Mashup Camp and the very first Convergence 08 conference.

Mashup Camps have been coming to Mountain View for over two years, bringing great startups for their product launches as well as lively discussions about innovations and new products to help the mashup community. There also will be mashup experts from Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, Amazon, and many more key players. Programmable Web has the best coverage of the Mashup topic.

Convergence will have even more provocative content as the first conference to address the intersection of four technologies likely to shape the world in extraordinary ways: Nanotechnology, Biological technologies (gene splicing, stem cells, DNS mapping, life extension) , Information technologies (internet and computing) and Cognitive technologies. This last would, I think, broadly include everything from brain enhancing drugs and devices to artificial intelligence. AI is the most exciting category for me, and I remain convinced that we’ll see conscious computers within about 20 years – hopefully and very possibly less. Conscious computing is likely to change the entire planetary game to such a degree it’s nearly impossible to predict what will happen *after that*, which is one of the issues that will be discussed at the conference.

My main concern is that proponents and predictions keep things real and this does not become a sort of brainstorming session for half-baked ideas and ideologies.

After millions of years of very slow biological evolution we’ve now entered a new age where technology is likely to eclipse most and probably all of our human abilities. Even that fairly obvious idea – which simply is an extension of current developments – leaves many people skeptical, cold to the idea, or even antagonistic about the changes that are coming. Like it or not … we are all in this together and it’s best to keep it that way as much as possible.

Markets refuse to join the Paulson & Bernanke Fan Club

Posted on October 7, 2008 by JoeDuck

Ouch. The bailout plan details start to be discussed as Bernanke lays out some of his plans and his take on the crisis. It also seems like the Government keeps spending and doing even more to shore up our aching economy.

Yet the markets remain unimpressed as the DOW drops another 500 today, much of that in the final minutes of trading.

My intuitive take has always been to question the idea that growth rather than efficiency is the cornerstone of a healthy economy. One thing that is now clear is that we are seeing the effects of unsustainable economic “growth” in the sense that the Real Estate price increases were unsustainable and they in turn created a huge surge in paper wealth that encouraged people to live above their means and banks to create bizarre speculative financial instruments.

I suspect the markets are recognizing and/or suggesting to us that we are in for years – perhaps even a decade – of economic contraction where the growth we’ve come to expect will no longer fuel our prosperity.

This does not have to be catastrophic. In fact to the extent folks replace big houses and cars with little ones, take more responsibility for healthy lifestyles, and seek new efficient solutions we could be in for a period where we won’t gain abundance but we might gain some …. wisdom.