Google v Microsoft over Facebook


Henry Blodget over at Silicon Alley Insider has a thoughtful post today predicting that Google will beat out Microsoft in the Facebook sweepstakes, and that the real winner here is Facebook founder Zuckerberg who will walk away from any deal with a jaw dropping, market driven valuation of Facebook.     Blodget notes that even if Microsoft spends enough to win the Facebook bidding war Google wins again because Facebook will simply milk Microsoft’s cash cow leaving them with little in the way of a superior online MS environment.

I think this last point is particularly relevant, and poses one of the key threats to Microsoft’s long term viability.    Unlike Google and even Yahoo, new companies don’t appear to see a Microsoft aquisition as much more than a big payday.   It’s not clear to me that Google does any more for the companies it aquires than Microsoft does, but I do think the perception is that Google will inject innovation and enthusiasm where Microsoft will just absorb you into their failing online collective.    I don’t think these assumptions are, on balance, valid, but I think they are part of the equation when new companies and their generally young, inexperienced founders are courted by the big players.

China redirects searches to Baidu? OR NOT!


TechCrunch is reporting today that China is redirecting internet searches from Google, Yahoo, and MSN and I assume all other engines – to Chinese search engine Baidu.   However I can’t find anything but little anecdotal posts to support this.   Looks to me like some videos and blogs have been affected, but that the big search engine issues may have related to a temporarily problem or testing of DNS stuff.

They suggest this may relate to the recent award given to the Dalai Lama I’d guess China is spending a lot of time thinking and experimenting with ways to maximize their search revenues, and this redirection, if it really did happen as dramatically as some suggest, would probably be testing ways to gather data on how well Baidu monetizes search compared to the agreements they have with other players.

Wait – here’s a blogger in Beijing, China saying that he’s getting to places TechCrunch says have been sent to Baidu, like Google.   Not sure what’s up …

Is this a false alarm?   I think so, though it might be another example of how China’s centralized socialist economy can create power and monopoly conditions the most ruthless old style US capitalists could only dream about.    Increasingly control of the online landscape is control of the business landscape, and as China’s massive economic expansion continues it will be very interesting to see how the China wields her power.

Note – I just edited this post quite a bit thanks to the new info.  Still dunno what’s going on.

Google + Doubleclick? Microsoft cries “Advertiser Monopolizer!”


Dana Baran over at WebGuild blog has a great short article summarizing Microsoft’s case against a Google takeover of Doubleclick.   The chart (from the MS legal team?) has what appears to be an excellent summary of the total online advertising spend.  I assume this is for 2006 but not sure.   It shows approximately a 20 billion total ad spend with Google scooping up 30% followed by Doubleclick at 22%, Yahoo at 19%, Microsoft at 17%, and all the rest at 12%. 

Microsoft’s point seems to be that Google and Doubleclick should not merge because, as the two leading recipients of online advertising revenue, this would create a player with more than half the market and thus too much power over the marketplace and advertisers. 

Face Bookie?


John Battell is wondering if Facebook might even reject a 6 billion dollar offer given how high they are flying these days.  I’m trying to read between his sarcasm but he seems to think they’d (foolishly) reject it.  I’m guessing the big money Facebook buyout buzz may be a little more opportunistic and that they’d love an offer like that, playing hard to get just long enough to firm it up.  I would have to admit being *very wrong* to suggest they should have taken the billion from Yahoo last year.   Facebook is probably not even worth that, but they can get more easily now due to the buzz of irrational exhuberance.

Recommendation to FB: Take the 6 billion and laugh all the way to the bank.

Recommendation to MS: Don’t spend this you fools!

Companies with the biggest buzz (YouTube, Facebook) have what appear to be extraordinary buyout valuations that are not consistent with their profitability or what even seems like a realistic, risk adjusted long term analysis.

Why? Market movers as players combine with speculative frenzy and lead many to assume they’ll get out before things change. It’s more like casino thinking than Warren Buffet thinking. Big players like Google and MS can afford to make what I think they’d see as “strategic” high offers but what a reasoned analysis suggests are foolish bets.

Lots of this happened in late 90s and only a handful of the players are left standing, most at a small fraction of their values at the pinnacle of *that* irrational exhuberance.

Yahoo’s Decker has a lot of fans


This NYT Article is a helpful primer on Sue Decker and how well regarded she is in the highest of tech circles. Dinner with Bill Gates? Microsoft would be well advised to purchase Yahoo but that deal seemed to have cooled months ago after much speculation. I’m wildly guessing it remains a very strong possibility.

Update: This Yahoo Press release about the new Yahoo ads just came out today. Hard to know the impact until we see advertisers reporting some results.

Disclaimer (dat claimer, we all claimer for ice cream!): I’ve got some Yahoo stock

Conversational Marketing is an Oxymoron


Well, I don’t think I’m going to be invited to speak at the upcoming Conversational Marketing conference by FM. I wrote the note below to John Battelle and I think it summarizes my feelings about why I think Conversational Marketing in the current “People Ready” form diminishes things rather than enhancing them. It has also helped exposed the very elitist vision of many high level bloggers. For the new media to be successful it must be highly participatory and democratic. Despite claims supporting this notion, I’m coming to realize that few “A list” folks have much if any interest in actively engaging with topics they cannot control. This is *very* significant because control of the conversation can be a potent form of censorship, even if “anything goes” once the conversation starts. For tech stuff I think Techmeme shines as an effort to cede increased levels of control to participants more than to elites and hope this vision becomes the dominant one as the blogosphere matures.

——
I’m watching my favorite TV show , Charlie Rose, and noting the “sponsored by Pfizer” bits (technically PBS can’t run ads but they are effectively ads). My first thought was “hey, why am I so hard on FM when even PBS is mixing ads and conversations and they are not even a for-profit entity!”

But … upon further reflection I’d argue that the Charlie Rose PBS model is an appropriate way to involve advertisers in a conversation where People Ready was not. Of course the goal at Rose is not to have a *marketing* conversation, but I’m increasingly convinced “conversational marketing” may be an oxymoron.

I’m guessing Pfizer had *little or no input* in the topics Rose has picked for his science series, and they probably didn’t even want to – they wanted the *association* with a *real conversation* about science. Charlie drove the conversation, Pfizer gets their juice from associating with the real conversation.

Now, with People Ready the conversation was defined by FM and Microsoft marketing primarily as a marketing support vehicle rather than an investigation of topics of interest to the community. The participants were to some extent commercial “players” in the equation. With better disclosure there is no big deal about having prominent tech people talking about a Microsoft Marketing paradigm but I can’t see myself ever *choosing* to read that stuff, feeling that it will be filtered through a positive lens of an ad campaign rather than the critical lens of a real conversation.

Update:  Here is CNET’s take on the conference

Outlook Express Spell Check Disabled in Office 2007 – Le Miserable Microsoft, avez vous un fricking clue?


I installed a new PC yesterday for a State Welcome center that came with the new office 2007 programs. After a day the staff asked me why their Outlook spell checking was working for French only. “Sacre bleu”, I said after throwing in some Francais and noting that only the English words were listed as “wrong”.   Noting the CDs boldly proclaimed “made in Canada” I first thought “ha – it’s those pesky Quebecois poking fun at Les Americains, oui? NON! After the typical 5 minutes of surfing anywere but Microsoft.com to find answers about Microsoft product defects, to my amazement I read this note from MS which states:

NO more OE spelling in English!

At first I thought it was an odd joke site, but indeed it’s true. The staff at this center uses that simple utility *daily* so why is Outlook Express spelling reserved only for the French?  I love France, especially Paris, France and their superior Freedom Fries, but I think we need some spelling help here in the USA as well.

This utility fixed the problem by adding a new English dictionary. I can’t vouch for the program yet since I just put it on, but it appears legitimate and good.

Yet another case where MS is absolutely *clueless* to the needs of users, and arrogantly provides downgrades as you upgrade to newer, potentially even more frustrating versions of Office. This one is pure insanity since the fix is cheap and easy for MS.  Why in the world would they disable English spell checking?  Google would have created a superior dictionary with the upgrade, where MS creates….nothing, and makes it hard to even find out what to do.

Travel and History Blog

Are you a travel blogger?   A local blogger?  Send me a note, I’m trying to collect a list of people blogging travel information for their local areas:   jhunkins@gmail.com

Microsoft may buy Yahoo = a good idea.


Wow, I’m liking my Yahoo stock which just jumped over $5 per share,but Microsoft couldn’t you have announced the possible bid to buy Yahoo about a month back when I had my 2000 YHOO 30 calls? With Yahoo at $33.34 I could have sold that 1000 investment for a cool $67,000!

WSJ Story (paywall)

NY Post Story

Henry Blodget thinks it’s important to spin off a new company rather than just suck Yahoo up into the borgness of Microsoft.

But hey, I do think this aquisition/merger is a good idea. Yahoo is very different from Microsoft. However, to the limited extent I interact with MS and Yahoo it seems to me that both of those corporate cultures have become bureaucratic, sluggish, and uninspired when compared to Google’s freewheeling yet very productive approaches. Yet very importantly, the people I meet from Yahoo and MS are often as impressive as those at Google, and certainly capable of great things as all these folks reinvent the online world on a regular basis.

If Microsoft can pool the innovations of the LIVE project with Yahoo’s superb developer support programs, and hire and inspire more people to have the evangelical zeal of Googlers, it could be a whole new online ballgame.

Update:  Om Malik’s reporting that WSJ’s reporting the talks appear to be off already.