American Express Members Project – finding and funding a good idea


IMPORTANT:  This blog is NOT  The Members Project Website.   Go HERE for the official site.

The American Express Members Project is a really neat idea – members will submit and review “good deed” types of projects and American Express will fund the winning project up to 5 million. It’s so great to see that the new corporate standard is to step UP to the plate and do really good, really big things. It’s also (finally) considered very hip and cool to do good things, and that’s …. cool.

Global Warming – less hype, more science please.


Yahoo’s got a noble initiative going to “fight” climate change but as with most of these efforts I’m very skeptical this is where so much of the smart thinking, time, and money should go.

I wrote them:   With all due respect to the noble intentions I think I’d rather see Yahoo work on … profitability and web innovations. Warming is so *incredibly* expensive to try to fix it’s better to spend our treasure and time on the low hanging fruit problems of the world: microloans, malaria, aids prevention, etc, and focus on conservation and alternative energy. With China as the leading producing of CO2 I can’t help but think our many noble high tech solutions are just jousting at the energy windmill.

I’m not nearly as skeptical about human induced climate change as my friend Glenn,  but I share his concern about the alarmism and “groupthink” that is now pervasive in the Climate Change community.     Recent IPCC reports have been

My big concern remains that we can’t do much about this and therefore we should tackle the catastophic things we *can* easily fix.  Those are disease and poverty, water, etc.    Incredibly people seem to ignore these basic human health and poverty problems as “insurmountable” when in fact  they are relatively easy to solve with modest allocations of time and money, while people focus on problems like Global Warming and longstanding religious conflicts that likely have *no* realistic solutions for decades, centuries, or even millenia.   Also important is that feeding people and raising standards of health and living leads to much, much smaller populations (this “prosperity leads to lower population” effect is very well documented but I can’t believe how many people think that helping the poor leads to more poor people (the “feed and breed” ideas of Malthus).  This is a very dangerous and wrong assumption and not backed by any research with which I’m familiar).

I propose that well intentioned, rational folks should use a ‘triage’ system where we take major global problems and the cost of their proposed solutions and prioritize these actions on the basis of where we can do the most good for the least money.

But as my friend Linda pointed out wisely last year during our hike in the incomparable Trinity Alps, it’s possible that at least with warming people are inspired to act, and in general these actions are leading to more energy conservation and innovations.    Better *something* good than nothing good, but I’m still going to advocate for a rational, not emotional, approach to all this.

Governor’s Tourism Conference


Oregon’s premier travel event is the Governor’s Tourism Conference. This year it was held in Sunriver, Oregon (about 15 miles south of Bend, Oregon) where the resort did a simply super job with food, accommodations, and hospitality.

My first Oregon Tourism conference was at Sunriver ten years ago and I think I’ve only missed one since then. It was great to catch up with folks I don’t see much since I stopped my internet marketing work with for the Southern Oregon Visitors Association a few years ago.

Although it’s been ten years since the internet became a key travel marketing tool, it’s still remarkable how print advertising remains the key marketing vehicle despite ROI measures that would make any truthful marketeer blush. Print enthusiasts, and even some silly “online marketing experts” have kept alive the myth that print ads lead to more than a trivial amount of web activity. I now attribute this to the fact people simply do not understand how cheap Pay Per Click advertising is as a destination marketing tool. It’s not uncommon for places to spend *several dollars* for a single print ad lead where a similar lead could be obtained online for as little as a nickel. I’d assumed years ago this gap would push people to PPC but as with most human behavior there is a huge level of psychological momentum that prevents them from changing behaviors. This is even true for huge companies like Ford that is *finally* moving to a much bigger online spend after a study showed how cost effective the online advertising has been for Ford.

One of the best presentations was from Golf Digest where even their head of research misconstrued results from a study of print vs online activity in planning golf related travel. He noted comparable numbers for the categories of “used print info” and “used online info” and suggested this meant that print advertising was therefore comparable to online in terms of effectiveness. This is technically true but it seems to me *extremely* misleading in terms of return on investment for advertising which won’t be comparable at all (they did not study this). Online you can target an ad and get *global reach*, all for pennies per click. With magazines you’d have to spend tens of millions *per ad* to get comparable reach on your message. Thus, as a marketer if you are deciding whether to run an ad in Golf Digest or run a comparably prices online campaign it is very likely that in almost all cases the PPC campaign will outperform the print one.

Tim O’Reilly, Blog Sheriff with a shiny new badge


How to enforce more civility at blogs is the hot topic of the past few days.   Here at the Joe Duck blog I recently encountered the tricky nexus between censorship and civility when I chose to ban a sometimes insightful but almost always abusive commenter.  He was the type of person who seems compelled to be abusive.  I think it’s fine to ban that type of person, but I object when people say this is not a a form of censorship – it certainly is and to some degree any censorship can hurt the quest for truth.

Jarvis takes Tim to task about his ideas.

In the latest debate I’m concerned people are confusing two different problems: Blogger Kathy Sierra had some death threats recently.  Mike Arrington suggests this is what got this debate going.    Death threats are illegal and need police follow up.  However Mean-spirited comments are hard to regulate effectively, regardless of any policies, because the line is subjective, unclear, and very dependent on context (e.g. discussion of a savage serial murderer vs a new cell phone).

So as much as I’d like to agree with Tim that we should work to invoke some standards I’m very skeptical of any approach that tries to define civility.   Skeptical enough I’d say there really is no reason at all for a new approach, sheriff badged or not.

Global Climate Change


Hey, as I’m getting over the personal warming of the flu and a long stint of no blogging, what better topic than Global Warming to get me going again? Here, the BBC summarizes the latest IPCC report which deals with how climate change may affect humanity. I haven’t reviewed the real report yet.  Here’s the IPCC report summary for policy makers.

It is interesting how strongly they IPCC and news reports are focusing on the effect on the poor because for many the issues with poverty are the key criticism of how alarmists have interpreted the IPCC findings. Should we should spend money on current catastrophic conditions in developing world rather than spending on the possibility of alleviating future suffering. In May IPCC will release the report talking about recommended courses of action.

We’re Going to Hollywood!


I’m going to use this post to collect helpful info for our trip to Southern California. I just ordered Disney Tickets from Ares Travel for a bit less than Disney itself. 3 day passes for Disneyland and Disney California Adventure were $127 (each)+15 for overnight. That was a quick $500 for the family but I’m sure it’ll be worth it.

I was planning to get tickets to a TV show because that’s a really interesting glimpse into the action of Hollywood, but instead we are going to be *in a movie*! Well, technically we are though it’s just as part of a big crowd watching a basketball game in the new Will Ferrell / Woody Harrelson / Andre Benjamin film “Semi-Pro” about basketballers in the 1970’s. Here’s the website for tickets to many TV shows and also this company handles some films. This looks like a lot of fun and you can’t beat the price = free. NOTE: TV tickets are always free. If you are vacationing in Hollywood and offered TV show tickets for money they are probably bogus.

1000 places to see before you die lists only a few Hollywood items, namely:
Hollywood Hollywood Website
Walt Disney Concert Hall | Disney Concert Hall website
Mann’s Chinese Theatre | Mann’s Theatre Website
Universal Studios Hollywood
Musso & Frank Grill
Spago Beverly Hills
Hotel Bel Air | Hotel Bel Air Website
Hollywood Bowl | Hollywood Bowl

We’ll head to Mann’s Chinese Theatre (formerly Graumann’s Chinese Theatre) to see all the star’s prints in the cement. Hey, here’s the webcam – look for us next week!

Betsy at About.com has this advice for Hollywood Boulevard, which is apparently a lot nicer than the last time I was down there:

Hollywood Boulevard between Vine Street and Fairfax Avenue is the stuff of legends. Attractions here include the Walk of Fame, footprints at Mann’s Theatre and Hollywood at Highland complex.

Parking advice from Answerla website:

Near Hollywood and Vine
There is plenty of parking conveniently located near Hollywood and Vine. Street parking is available on Hollywood and on many side streets to the east of Vine.

Near Hollywood and Highland

You can also park near Hollywood and Highland and walk or take the Metro back to Vine. There are pay lots on most streets between Vine and Highland, just\nnorth\nof Hollywood Blvd. A large lot is on Las Palmas (1 blk east of Highland) just north of Hollywood Blvd.

Parking at Highland is very easy and cheap ($2.00 for 4 hours with validation). There are also pay lots north of Hollywood on Highland. Parking there runs from $5 to $10 for the whole day. After parking at any of those spots, you can walk back to Vine (15 min) or take the Hollywood and Highland Metro one stop east to Hollywood and Vine.

There are open-air pay parking lots south of Hollywood Blvd. near Argyle. More pay lots are on Vine, just north of Hollywood Blvd. Parking runs from $5 to $10 for the whole day.

Several enclosed lots are reasonably priced. The Arclight Cinema lot on Sunset, just west of Vine is only several dollars with validation. The small shopping mall on the northwest corner of Sunset and Vine is also only several dollars with validation from the nearby Borders book store or Baja Fresh. Hollywood and Vine is just two blocks north of both of those lots.

Near Hollywood and Highland

You can also park near Hollywood and Highland and walk or take the Metro back to Vine. There are pay lots on most streets between Vine and Highland, just north of Hollywood Blvd. A large lot is on Las Palmas (1 blk east of Highland) just north of Hollywood Blvd.

Parking in the Highland mall is very easy and cheap ($2.00 for 4 hours with validation). There are also pay lots north of Hollywood on Highland. Parking there runs from $5 to $10 for the whole day. After parking at any of those spots, you can walk back to Vine (15 min) or take the Hollywood and Highland Metro one stop east to Hollywood and Vine. Map of the area around Hollywood and Vine.

Tickets for TV series and game show tapings at many studios, including CBS Studio Center, Culver Studios, and Universal Studios, can be obtained through Audiences Unlimited by calling

818- 506-0067. Paramount Television also tapes a number of hit shows. To obtain tickets, call (323) 956-1777. “The Tonight Show Starring Jay Leno” is taped at NBC Television. Call  818-840-3537 to obtain tickets for NBC. Warner Bros. Studios (4000 Warner Blvd., Burbank) offers a two-hour working studio tour, which involves some walking. Reservations are required. Call  818-954-1744 at least one week in advance to reserve a spot. Mann’s Chinese Theatre (6925 Hollywood Blvd.) is open to the public and features the famous cement-hand and foot prints. The Hollywood Sign, one of Southern California’s most recognized icons, can clearly be seen throughout most of Hollywood, while the Hollywood Walk of Fame honors show business immortals along Hollywood Boulevard and Vine Street. At the new Hollywood and Highland Complex, you can enjoy shopping, movies, restaurants, hotels, entertainment, and the Kodak Theatrethe new and permanent home of the Academy Awards, concerts, live theatre, and special events. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (333 S. La Cinema Blvd., Beverly Hills) is responsible for the Academy Awards every year. The library is open to the public but space is limited. Call (310) 247-3000 to make reservations. The Museum of Television & Radio (465 N. Beverly Drive, Beverly Hills) features a collection of more than 95,000 television and radio programs. Call (310) 786-1000 for details.

Some Disneyland tips

Girl Scout Cookies are a great donation – not a bakery scandal


The Girl Scout Cookie economy is substantial.    I’m still looking for data but it appears to be an economy of …. get this … about seven hundred million dollars annually.    Given that they are only selling the boxes for a week or so per year I think we may want to cut GSA loose on ideas for balancing the federal budget by increasing cookie sales.

Source for 200 million boxes

At $3-5 per box I was concerned that the cookie company might be exploiting the Girl Scouts because cookie sales to people, as economists like to say, have fairly inelastic pricing that is not really subject to market conditions.   You pay what they charge and consider it a good deed.  Obviously the cookies don’t cost much to produce based on market driven pricing for similar products at the supermarket.

But it appears the baker generally gets under $1 per box and the rest goes to the very good cause of GSA as I learned from this great breakdown on the Lac Baie Girl Scouts website.

Cost per box at this council: 3.50

Cookie Company–85¢

Troop–48¢ – 65¢

                        -day and overnight trips

                        -service projects

                        -camping events

                        -special programs and activities

Incentives–22¢

Support Services to all Troops/Girls–$1.87

                        -Financial assistance for girls

                        -Subsidize council sponsored program events and activities

                        -Adult volunteer and older girl trainings

                        -Outdoor education, camping and programs

                        -Maintenance of two camps and a program center

                        -Membership publications

                        -Travel opportunities for girls and adults

I also learned that each council sets their price and negotiates independently with the baker.   Not sure why though.   Here in Southern Oregon $4 gets you a box.

Therefore – you can feel comfortable buying more Girl Scout Cookies!

Disclaimer:  We have a scout in the house 

Why Myspace News will fail dramatically. It’s an ADD vs PhD thing.


Today reports are coming in that Myspace will launch a news network. I suppose it has some potential as a giant gossip column/American Idol board, but as a true news outlet Myspace is destined to fail big time. Seems to me that Myspace users and well-informed, thoughtful and analytical news junkies don’t match up well.

Although some of the small networks like Newsvine are good, and the USA Today project has potential, existing social news networks like DIGG and Netscape are pretty bad for all but tech and quirky news because they generally fail to analyze or treat significant stories with much if any respect. The focus is on stories for those with ADD more than those with PhDs. I get more relevant information from watching a Charlie Rose interview than spending comparable time at DIGG, and the average DIGG user is much sharper than the average Myspacer.

Spam hyped stock study indicates they did go up in value. SEC suspends trading on 35 “spam hyped” stocks for 10 days.


    The SEC has suspended trading in stocks that were hyped by spam campaigns. Incredibly the spam campaigns appear to have lifted the prices on some of these companies as indicated by the SEC study:http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2007/2007-34.htm

  • On Friday, Dec. 15, 2006, shares in Apparel Manufacturing Associates, Inc. (APPM) closed at $.06, with a trading volume of 3,500 shares. After a weekend spam campaign distributed emails proclaiming, “Huge news expected out on APPM, get in before the wire, We’re taking it all the way to $1.00,” trading volume on Monday, Dec. 18, 2006, hit 484,568 shares with the price spiking to over 19 cents a share. Two days later the price climbed to $.45. By Dec. 27, 2006, the price was back down to $.10 on trading volume of 65,350 shares.
  • On Dec. 19, 2006, trading in Goldmark Industries, Inc. (GDKI), closed at $.17 on trading volume of 126,286 shares. On Dec. 20, 2006, the spam campaign started, with e-mail proclaiming “GDKI IS MAKING EVERYONE BANK!,” and setting a 5-day price target of $2. By Dec. 28, 2006, spam emails boasted of the price spike that had already been achieved — “$.28 (Up 152% in 2 days!!!)” — and promised a 5-day price target of $1. That same day, GDKI closed at $.35 on a volume of more than 5 million shares. By January 9, 2007, the closing share price was back down to $.15.
  • A spam campaign in Healtheuniverse, Inc. (HLUN) stock began on Sept. 4, 2006, with emails incorporating a Healtheuniverse press release proclaiming that HLUN was “focused on being the first to commercialize stem cell applications in the $15 billion worldwide plastic surgery and cosmetic surgery market.” On Sept. 7, 2006, HLUN closed at $.12 per share on trading volume of 3,000 shares. The spam campaign accelerated, and HLUN shares spiked to $.22 per share on Sept. 11, 2006, with over 2.2 million shares trading hands. By Sept. 22, 2006, the closing price had dropped back down to $.11.