Twitter? Priceless. Dell makes a million on Twitter? Meaningless.


As usual there is an *extraordinary* failure in the blogosphere to apply even the simplest reasonable business metrics to a minor event, in this case Dell’s million dollar Twitter “success”.

I’m a big fan of Twitter and think it’s great, but can’t abide the absurd valuation metric du jour which is hyping Twitter’s value based on Dell reporting that they had a million in revenue from activity via their Twitter presence.     Excuse me, but this is *trivial* news, suggesting if anything that Twitter is probably *not* a good base for  transactional economies.

Why the contrarian conclusion here?

People too often view revenue numbers as if they were profit.   Revenue is easy.  Profit is hard.   A million in revenues for a company that does many billions in revenue each quarter is not very significant – that million probably represents something like $50,000 in profit even if we assume the cost of the social media campaign was *zero*, when in fact it was likely … more than the profit from it.   Even if the ROI was positive companies like Dell can’t mess around with many new technologies if they only make Dell a few thousand extra in profit.

Even more importantly this silly “Twitter Revenue” metric is almost completely bogus.    This appears to be a count of sales that came in via Twitter rather than sales that were the result of some extra advertising activity at Twitter.   By this type of metric we’d value email infrastructures like Gmail, Yahoo Mail, Hotmail in the hundreds of billions or even trillions since so many economic decisions and transactions happen via email.  When GW Bush emails Henry Paulson to say “Hank,  throw 15 billion at the Auto Makers” do we chalk 15 billion up to the “email economy”.  Of course not.

Communication paradigms are very important but their economic implications are not to be exaggerated or conflated with real monetization programs – few of which have proven even modestly successul in the social media world.

Partly it’s simply because I’m being honest and not trying to hype the value of microblogging to advertisers.   I’m just calling this analytically which leads us to wonder how they could have done so poorly when Dell’s demographic matches Twitter’s suberbly. Dell’s volume is huge.  Dell’s got  a huge number of  Twitter Followers.  They are preaching and selling to a choir filled with existing and potential customers.

It appears the usually-insightful-but-in-this-case-opportunistic Fred Wilson has been trying to bump this “Twitters Millions” article around, perhaps because … he owns part of Twitter.    But I think Fred knows better  – if anything this is such a trivial sum it implies that Twitter – like most social media operations – is probably already overvalued by the Silicon Valley hype machine that you might remember suggested huge valuations for hundreds of companies that are now … gone and worthless.

Twitter’s here to stay and certainly has great value, but I’m skeptical they’ll find a great monetization model for the same reason Facebook is failing to find one – social media is almost exclusively about socializing where search media has a very large component that is very advertising friendly.    If you are shopping for cameras you are likely to go to Google to find out more information and you *want* to find camera ads in your search event.     This fact cannot be underestimated and forms the basis for most successful forms of internet monetization.   Perhaps a holy advertising grail will be found that’ll work for social media and/or video media but I continue to be as skeptical as I have been for years.

Disclaimer:  I sometimes write for Dell at the TechDirt Insight Community.

Twitter Ads: Magpie “offers” Scoble “up to” $30,646 per month to run Magpie.


There’s a lot of buzz about Magpie, the new Twitter based advertising system that matches up twitter folks and those who follow them with advertisers.  Jeremiah O has a good test and expresses reservations that Magpie is “self diminishing” and I think I’m inclined to agree.   For most Twitter folks the money will be small and the distraction to users high enough that I think many would drop folks who use this to the extent their other social media efforts – and possibly their credibility – will be damaged.

I’m actually a big fan of the idea of targeted contextual ads, but skeptical that Magpie will be prudent enough to make this a truly “helpful” system for the viewers, whose only advantage is the prospect of a wonderfully targeted ad.   Google and most sites, by contrast, allows you to *ignore the advertising area* where my take is that Magpie ads will appear in the twitter stream.  They’ll be tagged “Magpie” so you could ignore all but the first line, but part of what makes Twitter enjoyable is that you generally do not have to filter out commercial content – if somebody is always posting commercial promo stuff I just dont’ follow them.  Magpie makes that … hard to do.

That said I’d like to see somebody with a huge Twitter footprint try this out and then broadcast all the commentary.    Hey Robert!  Magpie is offering you big money based on their revenue calculator

I’m skeptical that Scoble would see even a tenth of the 30k+ Magpie lists but I promise not to stop following you _and_ if you donate some to charity I’ll match up to $500 of your first month magpie proceeds to help justify the experiment.

Google Knol – very good but very failing?


Google Knol, the Googley competition for Wikipedia, was announced with some fanfare and really seemed like a great idea.    The ‘knol’ stands for “Knowledge”, and articles are written by people who verify their identities and presumably have some knowledge of the topic.    Community ratings are used to filter good from bad knol posts, presumably leaving the best topical coverage at the top of the knol heap.

However as with many Google innovations outside of pure keyword search knol appears to be making gaining little traction with the internet community.     I say this because I rarely see the sited linked to or referenced by blogs or websites and also from my own knol page for “Beijing” which as the top “Beijing” and “Beijing China”  listing you’d think would have seen fairly big traffic over the past months which included the Beijing Olympics.   Yet in about six months that page has only seen 249 total views – that is less than many of my blog posts would see in just a few days here at Joe Duck.

So what’s up with the decisions people make about using one resource over another?    Like Wikipedia Google Knol is an excellent resource.   Reading my Beijing page, for example, would give you some quick and helpful insights into “must see” attractions there.   It’s no travel guide but it would prove a lot more helpful than many sites that outrank it at Google for the term “Beijing”.    Google appears to have relegated their own knol listings to obscure rankings – perhaps because linkage is very low given the low use of knol.    Like many Google search innovations knol appears bound to the dustbin of obscurity as Wikipedia continues to dominate the rankings for many terms (as they should – it’s generally the best coverage although generally very weak for travel because they fail to capture commercial info adequately).

My simple explanation would be that we are prisoners of habit and have trouble managing the plethora of information resources that lie – literally – at our fingertips.   We all have yet to understand much about how the internet works, and how inadequate a picture one gets if they simply stick to a keyword search and hope for the best.

Wales: Internet Collaboration Still in Infancy


Speaking in London Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales made an obvious but important observation: the collaborative aspect of the internet – what many would call a key aspect of “Web 2.0”, is still in its infancy.

Although Wales seemed to focus on video collaboration and how that could improve I’d suggest that the real power of the online medium will *not* be video – rather we’ll find that many different combinations of photos, videos, and community will evolve into the next key style of web interaction.

This could be along the lines of a more powerful and more ubiquitous Flickr, acting within loose alliances of connected niche sites connected by Facebook and Myspace and Google Social and Open ID.

The niche aspect of the internet is already clear in Politics, where you find blogs and commenters and social networkers sticking pretty close to home, preaching to their own choirs and repeating the same themes throughout loosely connected social networks dominated these days by either Obama supporters or Obama bashers (who generally are McCain supporters but almost never talk about McCain!).

Obviously there are many, many exceptions, but if you look at many of the most successful major blog efforts it is interesting how partisan they are and how uninterested they are in providing more than ideological fodder consistent with what their readers already think:    DailyKOS, DrudgeReport, Huffington Post, WorldNewsDaily are a handful of commercially successful sites that add little to an informed discussion but remain more popular than the far more balanced views you’ll find elsewhere.    It’s encouraging that CNN and other major news outlets are looking more to interactivity and blogging, though I predict they’ll find it very challenging to monetize these social media assets in the amounts to which they are accustomed.    As with Yellow Page websites, I think major media blog sites may struggle with the difference between advertising costs and expectations online and off.

Obama and McCain click ads throttled by Google?


This just in from the Google click advertising confusion department.   It appears Google is severely throttling the number of clicks they allow to  publishers  for the key terms “Barack Obama” and “John McCain”.  I don’t understand why they’d do this unless perhaps it relates to election advertising laws?    That does not make sense to me because it seems we would have heard about this, so my second thought was that they might have agreements with the campaigns for exclusivity but … I’m not seeing Obama or McCain PPC ads on Google.
I was playing around with the costs to bid and run keyword campaigns for “Barack Obama” and “John McCain”, surprised to see that Google does not appear to be running those terms or terms like “vote”.
Using a cost per click maximum of $100.00 and a daily budget of $250,000.00 I should get a huge count for those terms, yet the Google predictor only shows I’d get about 102-128 clicks per day for Obama and 118-149 for McCain at an average costs just above a dollar per click.
Not that is not 118 *thousand* which might make sense, that is a paltry hundred and change clicks at a cost of about 100 per day.   Why wouldn’t Google allow a bigger campaign?

Google: Typosquatting for dollars. 32,000,000 of them


Google is helping to monetize interenet search misspellings, a technique that is estimated to make them 32-50 million per year.   It has also brought them a lawsuit from Edelman, the massive advertising consultancy who has no less than Wal-Mart as a client.

The technique involved is called “typosquatting” and is simply web publishers taking advantage of the many internet mispellings and mishits on keyboards to place advertising for terms like “computors” or “Girmany” or “uPhone” (where the user has accidentally hit the u instead of the i)

A study estimated that monetizing these domains via adsense ads (Google’s revenue share ad service) puts an extra 32-50 million to Google’s bottom line.

I don’t find this objectionable but not clear on the details of the Edelman lawsuit.  I’m guessing they want Google to direct people to the best sites for those terms and not charge rather than send the user to an intermediate site.

Silicon Alley Insider reports

Advertising Arbitrage: Another Case Study in Death by Algorithm


The New York Times has an interesting summary of the demise of profits for a website called SourceTool.

The site was buying Google Adwords pay per click traffic to the tune of some 500,000 per month and then monetizing that traffic for a profit of about $110,000 per month using Google Adsense pay per clicks (where Google shares revenue with the site).   This form of PPC Arbitrage is no longer encouraged by Google – in fact I think this was related to the Comscore fiasco earlier this year, where Google announced fewer clicks and the Comscore analysis led to Google stock tanking until Google announced a higher revenue per click which made the stock soar.

SourceTool, along with a handful of heavy hitting online advertisers like Proctor and Gamble, has written in favor of the justice department denying Google and Yahoo’s proposed advertising partnership arguing that the combined Yahoo Google ad empire would control some 90% of the market.

Matt Cutts from Google


Matt Cutts at the Google Dance
Originally uploaded by JoeDuck

It’s always great to get a chance to talk to Matt Cutts at search conferences though I didn’t have any good complicated search questions to bug him about this year. Matt is one of the early Google folks and arguably the most knowledgeable search expert in the world since he’s one of the few people who knows the Google algorithm inside out. Matt’s actually listed on the key Google search patent.

Today I noticed that Matt’s post about Google Chrome is near the top at Techmeme after some early reports suggested Google was going to nab all the info people created via use of the Chrome browser. Although I do not worry about Google stealing the content I create using their tools I was surprised in the discussion at Matt’s blog to see how people probably do not understand how much of your data from searches, emails, and other online tools is analyzed by search engines, ISPs, and probably at least a few government agencies. I wrote over there:

Well, I’m sure folks like Marshall knew that Google was not out to steal content. What people should be as concerned about is how the Chrome datastream will be processed now and over time, and how open will it be to examination by companies for advertising purposes ? Personally I’m OK with that but I think many people are not, and the lack of transparency in this area bothers me.

Somebody even suggested I was foolish to think they’d use Chrome data to target advertising, to which I replied:

Josh – you are naive to assume Google does so little with the search term data they explicitly say they have the right to collect. In Gmail, for example, some portion of your header is read by Google (probably just the title and not the content) so that ads can be targeted to you on those topics. Google Toolbar collects a lot of information and my understanding this helps target PPC advertisements though I’m not sure about that. As i noted I’m personally OK with this level of snooping, but I believe Google should make it much clearer what they do with the data they collect and probably also have options so users can delete any information they created – including their search streams – as they see fit.

No Prohibition advertisement, Fells Point, Baltimore Harbor


No Prohibition Ad, Fells Point, Baltimore Harbor 265

Originally uploaded by JoeDuck

Fells Point is one of Baltimore’s most historic areas. Here, a “Vote Against Prohibition” advertisement has lasted long past the demise of Prohibition. Perhaps not coincidentally the Fells Point area is known for bars and nightly rowdiness.

Baltimore’s Inner Harbor is the perfect example of how history and travel intersect in wonderful ways. Formerly the Inner Harbor was mainly for shipping, but over the past several decades Baltimore has turned this into a convention and tourism hot spot for the entire coast.

One of the most appealing features in Baltimore are the Water Taxis which take you from place to place all day for $9, offering a cheap tour. Be sure to ask the pilots about the buildings and harbor history – most are very well informed.

SES Site Clinics


SES Site Clinics
Originally uploaded by JoeDuck

A good team including Dave Naylor, Greg Boser, Dani Horowitz —- on stage is evaluating some websites that have volunteered to be reviewed:

http://www.LangAntiques.com

Hmm – not sure on the advice here but they are suggesting Lang avoid full URLs to make server handling more efficient, and avoid putting unrelated content at the site (use a different domain) to be more competitive in that specific niche. ie Generalizing can be helpful in some cases but make it harder to rank for very competitive terms.

http://www.GoldCoastInformation.com.au

s-l-o-w is a problem.

www.teleflora.com

Greg: Narrow title tags to be more focused. Focus on a small number of key phrases or words you want to rank well for rather than several.

Dave: Does not like the navigation on home page – thinks it is weak and will possible get site downranked. Title tags suck all the way through. Cross linking is important. Cannot be excessive, but can be used e.g. to link blog and websites advantageously.

Smarthome.com

Debby and Greg: Tables are bad. Use CSS. Separate content from layout. Greg – improve titles. Debby – make title tags *backwards* from the breadcrumbs – ie from most specific to the generic. [e.g. diamond studded shock collars, dog collars, dogs]

Blog advice: One of the most powerful tools you have. Check templates. Avoid the template sponsor links at footers? Edit the post URL to exclude date.

AllergyAsthmaTech.com
Ranking well for Asthma products but no good conversions. Greg – avoid images for important terms – use words or layer image on top of text which is “awesome” according to Dave and Greg. Caveat – be careful overdoing this.

default.asp as home page – avoid multiple home pages.

Question to audience – how many companies use blogs with the site? (very few raise hands). Greg and Dave: Get a blog! Google ranks blogs over product pages.

JustAnswer.com keep bots out of the https. site:JustAnswer.com

Greg – use subdomains but keep in mind search engines are sensitive to host name spam.