Dave Winer’s Final Signup?


Dave Winer is both right on and I fear way too optimistic when, in his discussion of Facebook’s value, he says:

I’m tired of building networks of friends, over and over.
Next time I do it, it’ll be for keeps.

Dave I only wish this were true, but I think you’ll need to be pretty stubborn *or* very socially innovative (hey, you -are- innovative!  Do it!)  to fix the problem of the proliferation of way too many social networks with way too few standards to simplify the whole mess.     But I’m with you if you want to start insisting on some standards – basically some sort of informal understanding among social network users that we won’t sign up for any more social networks until there is a way to port that info safely, easily, seamlessly to other social networks with     I don’t understand why this standard has been so elusive but I think it’s simply that markets have been driving things and there has, until very recently, been too little or negative incentive to make this happen.    As Dave notes Facebook’s open approaches may make them the ultimate social application, leading me to wonder if I was too pessimistic to suggest Facebook’s not worth what many say they should fetch in a buyout.

Face Bookie?


John Battell is wondering if Facebook might even reject a 6 billion dollar offer given how high they are flying these days.  I’m trying to read between his sarcasm but he seems to think they’d (foolishly) reject it.  I’m guessing the big money Facebook buyout buzz may be a little more opportunistic and that they’d love an offer like that, playing hard to get just long enough to firm it up.  I would have to admit being *very wrong* to suggest they should have taken the billion from Yahoo last year.   Facebook is probably not even worth that, but they can get more easily now due to the buzz of irrational exhuberance.

Recommendation to FB: Take the 6 billion and laugh all the way to the bank.

Recommendation to MS: Don’t spend this you fools!

Companies with the biggest buzz (YouTube, Facebook) have what appear to be extraordinary buyout valuations that are not consistent with their profitability or what even seems like a realistic, risk adjusted long term analysis.

Why? Market movers as players combine with speculative frenzy and lead many to assume they’ll get out before things change. It’s more like casino thinking than Warren Buffet thinking. Big players like Google and MS can afford to make what I think they’d see as “strategic” high offers but what a reasoned analysis suggests are foolish bets.

Lots of this happened in late 90s and only a handful of the players are left standing, most at a small fraction of their values at the pinnacle of *that* irrational exhuberance.

Marc – Got Blogs?


Marc Andreessen has been posting some very thoughtful and helpful blog stuff since his recent blogmeistering debut, and today’s post about his lessons from five weeks of blogging is no exception – it’s a great article about why blogging matters a lot more than most people realize, and why we have a lot of work to do to improve the sport.

The most provocative idea is something I’ve been puzzling over for some time – how can blogging evolve from the current form to one where the conversations are more interactive and equal, and can more actively include non-bloggers? I don’t mean equal in the sense everybody gets equal space or attention or time, rather in the sense that great comments on blogs are now relegated to far too low a status. Many “A list” bloggers hardly comment at all unless they are attacked or challenged, making it too difficult to get a spirited conversation going about many of the most important topics.

Marc has even stopped the comments at his blog due to junk comments and spam. Understandable but unfortunate because I’m less likely to read posts when I can’t get in my 2 cents in the comments. Trackbacks are good for people like me with blogs, but unless the topic is something I’m really interested in I won’t want to do a whole post about Marc’s interest du jour.

So, what is the solution to creating better blog engagement for all? I still think it’s some form of hybrid between blogging and forums where topics evolve through participation and then all participants have simple ways to engage in the conversation, and if necessary to disengage from spurious comments.

Gabe at Techmeme solves some of these problems by having his routine choose “newsworthy” items and then showing other blogs that have linked to the main posts.   This allows ‘second tier’ blogs to be featured along with the ‘top tiers’, helping to showcase the value of the topic and the conversation that surrounds it.

Technorati, the brilliant blog search engine, brings a lot to the table but to my way of thinking has not really solved the key challenge of blog conversational engagement.   Technorati APIs may have created the groundwork for the perfect application and perhaps Dave himself will develop the “golden mean” approach to navigate the blogs and the conversations that surround them.

Kijiji starts with a whimper not a bang


Lots of buzz today about EBAY’s entry into the online classifieds space with Kijiji.com but I don’t think Craigslist has much to worry about. Kijiji is easy to navigate with maps and Kijiji is easy to understand and Kijiji makes it easy to register….but…. there are practically NO LISTINGS! Obviously it’ll take some time for them to promote the service and gear up, but one of the big 2.0 challenges now is that users don’t want to submit listings to dozens of websites or even to two for that matter. Rather, ideally, you’ll submit to Craigslist and have Kijiji pick up the listing automatically. I’m assuming they’ll bring this functionality in at some point but clearly they have not yet – there appear to be very few listings or registrations so far based on the forum and some quick surfing.

Yahoo’s Decker has a lot of fans


This NYT Article is a helpful primer on Sue Decker and how well regarded she is in the highest of tech circles. Dinner with Bill Gates? Microsoft would be well advised to purchase Yahoo but that deal seemed to have cooled months ago after much speculation. I’m wildly guessing it remains a very strong possibility.

Update: This Yahoo Press release about the new Yahoo ads just came out today. Hard to know the impact until we see advertisers reporting some results.

Disclaimer (dat claimer, we all claimer for ice cream!): I’ve got some Yahoo stock

American Express Members Project – finding and funding a good idea


IMPORTANT:  This blog is NOT  The Members Project Website.   Go HERE for the official site.

The American Express Members Project is a really neat idea – members will submit and review “good deed” types of projects and American Express will fund the winning project up to 5 million. It’s so great to see that the new corporate standard is to step UP to the plate and do really good, really big things. It’s also (finally) considered very hip and cool to do good things, and that’s …. cool.

Chip your pet? Why not chip yourself?


One of my most viewed posts is a discussion of the Home Again PET ID system, where you implant an ID chip in your dog or cat so you can recover them if they get lost.

VeriChips are implanted in about 2000 people worldwide. They contain information about a person and allow quick medical info retrieval if a person is unconscious or unable to communicate. A debate over their use is starting now and will be another interesting peek into how we are going to relate to technologies that can help us, but have potentially scary “big brother” uses.

Facebook Rules!


Today Facebook launches a social media initiative that is significant enough to possibly become a web milestone, depending on how the developer community views and uses all the new capabilities that Facebook is offering to them.

Rafe Needleman‘s got a video of the conference today and Techcrunch will, as usual, have insightful summary of the implications of all this.

Based on my quick first look into what they are up to this really looks like a brilliant move, and a sign they won’t be selling to a bigger player, rather trying to rise up and eat the bigger fish.

If Facebook can capture the imagination of enough developers and become “the” key platform for social media they’ll likely be very glad to have turned down the billion+ dollar buyout offers earlier this year.

At the least Mark Z and his crew deserve huge props for going for the gusto and offering to take the development community along for the ride.  This is not only great stuff for Facebook and social media evangelism, this appears to be consistent with the grand and open internet community vision that one hopes will ultimately prevail.