PodTech Bloghaus with Robert and Maryam = glimpse into future of reporting = very cool


Although Apple’s release of the iPhone at MacWorld sort of stole the show away from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this year, I think PodTech / Scoble’s brilliant idea of setting up a “Bloghaus” at CES is one of the neatest conference ideas to come out in a long time.

Unlike some of the other early bloggers, Robert Scoble has been a strong advocate for the powers of blogging as cornerstone of commerce. His book with Shel Israel, “Naked Conversations”, was an excellent introduction for corporate suit people to blogging’s significance and also to blogging’s importance to a smart corporate strategy.

Many of the suits are still fretting about this and failing to grasp the obvious, but Robert’s new gig, PodTech, is proving a leader in innovative blogging, and I think the CES Bloghaus has set a new standard in the effectiveness of alternative reporting approaches and frankly what a “cheap date” good bloggers will prove to be. One prominent blogger wrote down there that he was heading over to bloghaus because he was running low on cash. “Feed me”, he begged. So for the price of a few beers and Pizza bloghaus gets a good writer and a good plug. And that’s good! I’d sure like to see a bloghaus at the next conference I attend. Sure, you can blog from anywhere at the conference with your laptop and WIFI, but wouldn’t it be more fun to be hangin’ at the ‘haus?

I’d like to compare some of the professional reporting coming out of CES with the blog reports. In other venues blogging generally wins, offering personal insight and expertise rather than a superficial skim of the topic. Also, bloggers tend to speak more frankly so you avoid the sort of “legally / commercially sanitized” fluff that sometimes constrains are reporter’s ability to tell the real story.

Bravo Podtech! Bravo Robert and Maryam and your team down there at CES. I only wish I could have been writing this … from there!

iPhone – well, maybe it’s NOT so great after all?


Ha – yesterday the raves came in about Apple’s new phone and now some of the ranting has begun. Always insightful Paul Kedrosky suggests that there may be a few key problems, though on balance I’d have to say I think the key innovation here is the better web browsing environment.

About 18 months ago I ponied up about $350 to upgrade to a Sprint Treo 650.   It’s a pretty good phone and Palm info organizer, but the browser is too small.   Also, as Jobs was pointing out in his keynote, simplicity is important and the combination of synching the thing with my computer to download pix and phone info is too cumbersome.   In fact I can’t even use it as a modem for my laptop though I think there are some cables and hack software to do it.

Food, shelter, and a web browser is pretty much all you need to get by these days, even if you are running many small to modest sized companies.

If you count the fact you can order Pizza online you can take food off that list.

I really should have kept that AAPL stock I traded for WCOM several years ago.

Don’t take stock advice from me.

Apple announces the new iPhone. Stock soars, tech peeps rave.


Apple’s news today is shaking MacWorld and the Tech world.  They’ve got an iPhone, and it’s looking nothing short of spectacular.

In contrast Microsoft’s “big news” today was more pitiful than interesting:
“Zune will have video games by July 2008” 

July of 2008?  MS dudes, at the rate you are innovating you should just be hoping you’ll still be around in 2008 to play with your own little Zune.

Technology failing? Hey, it’s time to SUE!


I simply don’t know if this lawsuit against Google, SONY, and other big players suggesting a previous right to digital distrubition has merit or not because I don’t understand the legal issues well.

However it’s another good example of a tactic increasingly used by tech firms that are not doing very well with their technologies – work the legal angles hoping to hit a big payday via settlement with a deep pocket like Google or even hit a home run with a court decision in their favor.

I’m not objecting to these lawsuits though – I think the big players have tended to give great liberties with content distribution and have taken great liberties as well. Youtube’s empire was built largely via illegal content distribution. These complex deals with gigantic stakes probably should be settled by objective legal means.

When you are raking in billions it’s easy to be generous and I predict that the real “tipping point” for Google’s fall from grace will be the shift from them getting sued to them suing other firms, especially small ones. Maybe they won’t have to sue which would bode very well for Google’s long term prospects and claim to the high ground.

GoogleGuy and upcoming Google Rival WikiaSari


A couple interesting TechMemes for today:

Matt’s got a great post noting how page view metrics are breaking down with AJAX implementations. Notable from his mini-rant is this:

* If you’re doing a start-up and want impressive page view metrics, stay the hell away from AJAX.
*If you would even *for one second* consider staying away from AJAX for the sake of impressive metrics, you’re running your start-up ass-backwards.

Next, in the “Could be Good as Google” department we have Jimmy Wales of Wikimedia and founder of the superbly excellent Wikipedia project announcing today that WikiaSaria WikiSaria Article from UK  will be a community based search engine to rival Google’s search. This is really provocative news as Google appears comitted to the mechanistic, machine driven approach to search, believing it’s the best and most scalable way to deal with spam and the growing complexity of organizing the world’s info. An alternative vision is Yahoo’s approach which includes more human interaction and editing than Yahoo but still relies heavily on the algorithm. It appears the new search will focus mostly on human input from the exploding community of onliners.

Wales: “Google is very good at many types of search, but in many instances it produces nothing but spam and useless crap. Try searching for the term ‘Tampa hotels’, for example, and you will not get any useful results,” he said.

Spammers and commercial ventures are also learning how to manipulate Google’s computer-based search, he added.

Mr Wales believes that Google’s computer-based algorithmic search program is no match for the editorial judgment of humans.

Also note the many misquotes about Amazon as a participant.

Wales: Reporters and bloggers note: Amazon has nothing to do with this project. They are a valued investor in Wikia, but people are realllllly speculating beyond the facts. This has nothing to do with A9, Amazon, etc. Help me out, spread the word. I am looking for a community of people to continue the development of wikiasari and so on. Discuss here. Join the mailing list. —-Jimbo Wales 23:24, 23 December 2006 (UTC)

More on this huge story from these blogs:

Niall Kennedy: Wikiasari: Wikipedia success applied to social search?
Michael Arrington: Wikipedia to Launch Search Engine: Exclusive Screenshot

Adam Turner : Wikipedia founder plans search engine to rival Google

 

 

Pete Cashmore: Wikiasari – Wikipedia Founder Launching a Google Rival

Bill Gates and the Bloggers


James Kim Search Discussion – Click here | Mount Hood Climber Search

Some very high profile and clever folks in the blogging community got to head up to Microsoft HQ and meet with Bill Gates yesterday to discuss the future of the internet, especially ways to make the upcoming MIX07 conference relevant to the needs of those attending.

I missed meeting Gates at MIX06 earlier this year but I know several of the bloggers that were invited so I’ll have to settle for one degree of separation. I’m a huge fan of Bill Gates’ superb global health initiatives though not at all a fan of many of his “old style” ideas about computing and the internet. I think he, and MS at large, continues to view the internet as primarily a technological rather than a sociological development (clue: it’s 80% sociological, 19% technical and 1% electrical)

The reports are starting to come in:

Mike Arrington

Steve Rubel

Ryan Stewart

Niall Kennedy

Liz Gannes

Todd Bishop

Little companies get the big talent? Auren says yes, but he’s wrong.


Auren Hoffman of Rapleaf has a provocative post about how startups are sucking up the smartest people, leaving the Yahoos and Googles to fend for the second class talent. Based on my internet aquaintances and conference experiences I’d have to say he’s wrong about this. Google and Yahoo and other big company folks are among the brightest I meet anywhere. Many seem too young to have developed the wisdom that helps see big pictures, but that applies to the startup people I meet as well.

Google is especially agressive about plucking people from PhD programs before they even have a chance to think about alternative work and it looks to me that events like Yahoo’s Hack Day and liberal “start your own company” policies help keep the talent flowing in the direction of the big companies.

I should add that I think a lot of brilliant folks are doing startups, and this is a great thing.  My point is that company choice is based more on individual preferences (entrepreneurial mind vs stable mind … and yes I mean that literally).

I wrote over at Auren’s:

I’ll be more convinced of this when I go to internet conferences and the startup people are more impressive than the big company folks. I’m still *very* impressed with the depth of talent at Yahoo, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc, especially in the cutting edge areas. Also, many big companies have liberal rules about starting your own project under the company umbrella, which minimizes personal risk but preserves the chance at home run profits (I think you could build an interesting big company around this single notion).

I’m guessing if you did a study you’d find that the company choice for top candidates is more a function of individual preference than company size (e.g. the entrepreneurial-risk-taker vs the stable-income-and-fat-pension person.

$350,000,000 for Hitwise? Wow, statistics don’t lie about … cash? Do they?


This Hitwise asking price sounded way too high at first, but Hitwise has about 1200 customers. I think their charges range from a minimum of about 1000 monthly to what would not be more than 5000 or so monthly (I’m guessing wildly here).

Any company that’s counting on the unreliable reporting of the big analytics firms should be ashamed of itself, but putting that aside let’s assume Hitwise is taking in an average of 2500 monthly from those 1200 clients. This is a cool 3 million per month or 36 million per year. For an established and growing internet company asking 9-10x annual revenues is not outrageous. I’m guessing they’ll be thrilled to get half that, but… I say rock on Hitwise dudes!

Mathew Ingram is seeing 2.0 bubbles and thinks I have a high threshhold for outrage

HeadOn alternative remedy – Wal Mart Candles


ABC’s reporting on how successful Head On has been: Six million tubes of wax at $6-8 per tube. Since the product obviously has no medical value, is this a marketing miracle? You bet it is! There’s a HeadOn sucker born every minute!

Let’s do the math:
Wax sells at about $2 per pound I’m sure HeadOn paid less but that number will do for now. That amounts to 12.5 cents per Ounce of wax.

HeadOn tubes have .2 oz of wax and a few tiny amounts of other effectively worthless ingredients. Thus their cost for the HeadOn itself is no greater than 2.5 cents per tube of HeadOn. Packaging and production costs? Let’s assume it’s 5 times the product cost, or 12.5 cents per tube.

Therefore a tube of HeadOn costs HeadOn approximately 15 cents.

HeadOn tubes sell for about $8, though there are discounts so let’s use $7 as the average sale proceeds per tube.

$7 proceeds from a $0.15 investment in the product and packaging! This is a markup of 46.67 times. A “four thousand six hundred sixty seven percent” markup. Microsoft Xbox 360 eat your heart out.

Their largest cost is likely the advertising campaign, but you can spend a lot for ads when your product is marked up over 46x your cost. I’ll try to find out more about what they spend on advertising later.

ABC Report:

With no science to back it up the ad was changed to stop implying (something?), though it seemed to me HeadOn has always been careful not to claim much of anything.

Cooling sensation may distract people from the pain. A doctor at the headache center suggests.

HeadOn claims to act homeopathically, with the wax containing tiny amounts of some homeopathic extractions . Homeopathy is one of the silliest and most ridiculous approaches to medicine, based on the notion that water imbued with unmeasureable amounts of substances has it’s molecular structure changed into powerfully curative “extractions” (hey, is there one to stop me from gagging on pseudo-science?) Like any quack remedy you’ll get placebo effects which have “real” curative powers.

The debate over quack cures is clouded by this placebo effect. Unlike real medicines which generally have potential side effects and rarely work in all cases, placebos, which only need the gullible participation of the user, can offer real relief, especially from minor symptoms.

I’m confident that HeadOn does nothing medical, but that does not mean it’s worthless.

However, prudent shoppers will choose my alterative “even better than HeadOn” emedy – one of those short stubby 29 cent Wal Mart Candles used for religious offerings. This will save you over $7 AND give you a religious infusion (but only if if you BE-LEEEEEVE!).

Send the $7 you saved vs buying a “real” tube of HeadOn to the charity of your choice, and you’ll not only get the benefit of the placebo effect you’ll actually do some good.

Digg this?

Dvorak on Vista


John Dvorak is not impressed with Vista’s advertising or prospects as a buzz-worthy application, saying the promotional web info …

looks like an advertisement for an expensive prescription drug for constipation

and suggesting the market impact will not be very big.

I actually think he’s wrong, and Vista will usher in some significant changes, especially as users integrate sidebar and desktop “gadgets” and we see the desktop and websites look more like myspace pages, littered with dozens of mini applications. If Vista realizes the promise of facilitating RSS and gadget centric information architecture I think it could be a significant part of the significant changes sweeping the online environment.