Category Archives: technology

New York Times to Jerry Yang: Take a Hike

Posted on by
2

The New York Times seems to agree with critics who suggest Yahoo’s board was not acting in the interest of shareholders as it fought off Microsoft offers for the company, including a final offer that in my view will prove to be somethng of an on-the-table smoking gun in this matter since Yahoo rejected a deal that would have allowed them to improve their own search monetizing routines rather than simply outsource them to Google.

The fact that Jerry Yang and David Filo, and the Yahoo board have a huge paper loss should give everybody pause to wonder about whether they may be rightt.  Perhaps keeping Yahoo pristine for a few years, unsullied by Microsoft’s cash and worldview, will lead to much higher stock prices?

…. or perhaps optimism and MS hostility has trumped common sense.

Disclosed:  Long on YHOO

Blog Revolution Note XXIV

Posted on by
13

At SoundBiteBlog I stumbled (or rather twitter-comment-followed) an excellent post about how much the poisonous / ranting writing styles of many blogs help them succeed.   The author wonders if nice blogs can finish first …

The short answer is “sure”.  A good example is Matt Cutts at Google who rarely has a bad word to say about anybody at his blog yet has one of the most read technical resources on the internet for Google search issues.   Fred Wilson’s A VC is also a blog with heavy readership and a friendly tone.    Marc Andreessen at blog.pmarca.com  is another and there are many, many more.

However I think the key blogging success issue is ranking, and there are many ranking problems in blogging paradise.  Blogs that rank well will be read more often and in turn will confer more rank via linking, so the  *linking style* of most of the old timer blogs  has really inhibited the broader conversation.   The best posts about any given topic are rarely by A list blogs anymore but these posts are rarely seen because the ranking structure favors older, more linked blogs over those with less Google authority.   

The old authority models work much better for websites – where high ranks for a general category make sense  – than for blogging where authors tend to cover a lot of topics.    TechCrunch will appear with a higher rank than almost any other blog if a technology topic is covered even if their coverage is weak, wrong, or misguided.    A thoughtful and well researched post about a critical topic is unlikely to surface if it is written by an “outsider” and escapes the RSS feed of somebody prominent, or sometimes even if linking to that post is seen by the “A lister” as giving a potential competitor too much free juice.   Note how “up and coming” tech blogs like Mathew Ingram link generously while most A list blog writers – who are now often hired writers, paid to be seen as a key breaking source of news – are far less likely to  cite other blogs.    Ironically I think success has really diminished some formerly great blogs.    John Battelle is one of the most thoughtful writers on the web but now he’s way too busy with Federated Media to keep Searchblog as lively as it once was.  

Google and other aggregators (like TechMeme) in part use metrics similar to Google pagerank to define TechCrunch as more reliable because they have more incoming links, more history on the topic, and more commenting activity.   This is not a *bad* way to rank sites but it tends to miss many high quality, reflective articles from sources who do not actively work the system. 

Solutions?  I still think a blog revolution is needed more than ever to re-align quality writing and new bloggers with the current problematic ranking systems. 

In terms of the ranking algorithms I’m not sure how to fix things, though I think Gabe should use more manual intervention to surface good stuff rather than just have TechCrunch dominate TechMeme even when their coverage is spotty and weird.   I’m increasingly skeptical that TechMeme is surfacing the best articles on a topic – rather it seems to give too much authority to a handful of prominent but superficial stories.    As others link and discuss those stories we have only the echo of a smart conversation.  

I don’t spend enough time searching Technorati to know if they are missing the mark or not, but I like the fact they are very inclusive.   However like Google and I think Techmeme, Technorati has trouble surfacing content that is highly relevant and high quality but not “authoritative”.

For their part, Google needs to do more to bring blog content into the web search results.   Last year at SES Matt Cutts was explaining to me that they are doing more of this than ever and I’m sympathetic to the fact that fresh content into the SERPS will lead to spamming problems, but I’m finding that I often get more relevant results from a blog search at Google than a regular search.   This is more the case for breaking news or recent events but it has even happened for research topics where the blog search has led me to expertise I don’t find in the web listings.

Why do blogs suck? A Blogging Revolution Needed?

Posted on by
6

Wait, no, I love blogs and blogging!   

However several folks in the  blog echo-chamber are suggesting correctly that there are problems with this  echo-chamber and problems with the many “me too” posts out there by people who want to be in TechMeme or otherwise get linked.     I actually think TechMeme’s got it close to right because creator Gabe Rivera has facilited the conversation algorithmically rather than allowing only the “insiders” to decide who is linked to and thus who gets to participate most actively in the tech buzz of the day. 

Tech blogging has become something of a mess even though there are advantages to having tech themes discussed ad nauseum in that I’d argue you can shake out the BS faster that way.  

Mark Evans has a thoughful post about why he thinks original blog thinking is so rare.    I don’t agree that original thinking is hard for most bloggers who tend to be a pretty thoughtful gang, but agree we don’t find enough good thinking on blogs.   Why?   Because we have created a problematic blog ecosystem that relies on human frailties and short attention spans.     I think it’s kind of a “welcome to the human race” thing and is not fixable.

 I wrote over there:

I don’t think original thought is all that difficult for many bloggers, rather most people tend to read a combination of groupthink and antagnostic dialog.  Thus the most read posts and blogs are not the most thoughtful.

I find that when I venture away from the major tech blogs I find the far more thoughtful posts – yours right here for example.

Ideally there would be a new blog revolution that would aggressively work to reconnect the thousands of new bloggers based on merit and thoughtfulness rather than old links from old sites with old thinking.  Sort of a human and algorithmic “revoting” for the best blogs.  I wonder how well the old “A list” would fare in that revote?  

CNET SWOT Analysis

Posted on by
Reply

CNET is back in the news as today brings layoffs and ominous internal memos so I thought I’d put out this CNET SWOT analysis I did over at the Techdirt Insight Community not so long ago:

CNET Mini SWOT

CNET Strengths:

Brand awareness and brand respect.   CNET has been one of technologies most recognizable and respected brands for many years, and continues to maintain the high respect of the technology community.

Writers.  CNETs technology writing and analysis is recognized as some of the best in technology.  Unbiased reviews and authoritative articles from seasoned technology journalists are the mainstay of CNETs content. 

Editorial staff.  CNETs reputation for editorial and quality control is unsurpassed in the industry.   

Dan Farber promotion.  Dan Farber is one of technologies most informed and seasoned professionals.   As a blogger who is extensively familiar with and actively participating in social media Dan was a great choice to help guide CNET into a more aggressive social networking posture.

Huge internet traffic.  CNET remains one of the most visited news sites on the internet.

High revenues with potential for high profitability.   CNET’s revenues are strong despite significant earnings declines in the past year. Zacks analysis suggests a modest profit downturn in the coming year, but CNET is still generating very substantial revenues and some profits.   Under a JANA acquisition scenario the aggressive management for profit could boost earnings significantly. 

CNET Weaknesses:

Labor intensive content production.  CNET’s quality writers and editors are her blessing and her curse.   Writers cost money and good writers, collectively, cost a lot of money.    Blogging and the social media revolution have led to an online environment that creates a tidal wave of quality tech-focused content every day at very low average cost per article.

News delays.   Although CNET remains very current, it simply cannot always compete with the 24/7/365 blogging community that is posting (and increasingly scooping) CNET and other media outlets when technology news breaks.  Again, the editorial standards force CNET to delay where bloggers and online journals will report first and ask questions later.  The practice is questionable from a journalism point of view, but usually it is just fine for advertisers and certainly helps with traffic generation as the early reports often garner the most page views. 

Earnings declines.   CNETs earnings are down significantly, placing huge pressure on the company to cut costs and increase monetization for content.    CNETs early success may have led them to incorrectly assume they would remain unchallenged in the tech news space where they are under pressure from both bigger players like Yahoo and smaller players like TechCrunch.

CNET Opportunities:   

Socialism!   CNET’s attempts to build an online CNET-centric community at the website have been modest and in many ways have failed.    With a sterling brand and reputation, CNET is in a great position to leverage the existing tech-centric user base into a number of community endeavors.   One small example would be to create more niche CNET communities online and then evangelize these communities via CNETs advertising as well as Facebook, Myspace, and other social media powerhouses.   Even more powerful would be to facilitate the creation of much more reader-driven content.   For example make registration for CNET simpler with just an email signup and encourage far more guest articles.   Digg style rankings for CNET articles would be another positive step in this direction.  

Be more like TechCrunch.  Mike Arrington has brilliantly leveraged the fast pace of internet journalism, modest journalism standards, advertisement flexibility, and most importantly the powers of social media.   Where TechCrunch initially produced content at a fraction of the cost of CNET using freelance writing and little office overhead, it also distributed and monetized this content in more powerful ways such as massive emailings and very aggressive social media participation and real socializing.   Once again however CNETs high journalistic standards provide some barriers here.   

JANA board coup:  If JANA succeeds in the fight to change the direction of CNET, and this appears likely, a new focus on monetization and innovation will lead to a stronger and more viable CNET.     Unfortunately profitability is probably going to call for a reduction in journalistic standards and quality coverage, but from a company health perspective CNET is likely to benefit from a leaner, faster, broader, but more superficial approach to tech news coverage.

CNET Threats: 

Diminished advertising revenues.   The coming recession may not hit online advertising as hard as some other sectors but online advertising spending growth is likely to slow in the coming year and possibly even go down.   Financial sectors, for example, were huge spenders last year and may be unable to continue spending at the same levels due to the housing crisis.  

Blogging and the social media revolution.   These represent a substantial threat to CNETs long term prospects and profitability.   Blogs and non-traditional media coverage are generating huge volumes of quality content every day, and technology focused content is especially abundant since blogging’s early adopters tended to be technology enthusiasts.  Bloggers are increasingly respected as quality journalists and analysts who in some cases have more expertise than the technology journalists that are covering the same story, product, or events.   Yet the average cost to produce a blogged story is effectively zero as many bloggers are writing simply for the fun of coverage and the internet soapbox.   Monetization of blogs is also becoming easier and more lucrative in the form of Google Adsense per click advertising as well as projects like Federated Media which match publishers to advertisers – a service for which advertisers are increasingly willing to pay a high premium.


A Google aquisition of CNET?

Despite the reasonable assumption that CNET has significant potential for a valuation far beyond current capitalization of approximately 1 billion,  I consider a Google aquisition *unlikely*.      Google’s actions and stated intention for many years have been to concentrate on content *monetization* and avoid content production.    Also, Google stresses the value of machine scalability which is not compatible with the labor intensive content and editorial style of CNET.   

That said, I think that CNET and Google cultures would be fairly compatible.  Not because they are similar but because they would have a high degree of mutual respect as leaders in their respective fields.  Where Google is relaxed, fast paced, and extremely innovative CNET culture appears to be more formal, professional, and along the lines of a traditional journalism environment with attention to detail, high journalistic standards, and an older workforce.    This is probably an acceptable recipe for a comfortable working relationship.

CNET Linkage:JANA Board Fight:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080107/20080107005660.html?.v=1

Zacks YHOO summary:
http://biz.yahoo.com/zacks/080222/11619.html?.v=1

Dept. Justice: XM Sirius Merger won’t be an Anti-Trust Problem

Posted on by
1

A merger of XM and Sirius satellite radio networks will not create anti-trust conditions according to the US Justice Department. Today’s decision is likely to pave the way for a full merger approval soon, which will need to come from the Federal Communications Commission.

Many feel the government has been dragging its regulatory feet on the merger given concerns expressed by the radio lobby and several prominent US Congress members including John Conyers.

With the Justice Department’s OK it would be unusual for the FCC not to follow along and grant merger approval to Sirius and XM, who claim the merger will increase business efficiencies and provide more choice for their combined radio audiences. The radio industry worries that the merger will lead to anti-competive programming and advertising activity by what will become the world’s largest and highest reach radio network.

Source: Reuters

Yahoo Microsoft: Is the fat lady almost singing at $34?

Posted on by
1

Henry Blodget is whining that the Yahoo Microsoft deal is back to where it started, but I think Henry’s wrong … again!     

I’m glad Henry was wrong about the rumor that Yahoo’s Q4 would beat expectations because it was part of the reason I bought YHOO then, and even though the stock dipped due to a bad Q4, it surged on Microsoft’s offer of $31 per share so I’m well in the black.   But now he’s wrong to say the deal is not almost done.  I think this Yahoo Microsoft merger is coming very soon to an internet near you.

Citibank Analyst Maheney upgraded Yahoo this morning, anticipating a boost in the MS bid to $34.   Hey, maybe he read my blog post of about 6 weeks ago where I suggested Microsoft raise their bid to $34?    

Unlike Henry, I think this is not back to where it all started at all!

Yang didn’t want to merge, now he sees it as almost inevitable.  Yahoo board wanted more, now they know anything past initial offer is gravy.  Part of the show was probably the board protecting itself against lawsuits from the unlucky minions who bought their Yahoo at $35+, some at over $100.

Barring a Q1 miracle that would recalibrate Yahoo prices without help of MS bids, I think the fat lady is now almost done singing on this deal.

 Disclosure:  long on YHOO

Blogs as a digestive tract

Posted on by
4

Nick Carr is rapidly becoming one of my favorite bloggers.   Not so much because I agree with his points, but because his style is sharp and brilliant and because he recognizes that many of the elitist current distinctions in the writing community are, in a word, nonsense.

This Gaurdian article contains the very clever notion that blogging’s virtue is what others have called a blogging vice – the tendency to regurgitate articles and news gleaned from major outlets, adding personal notes or spin in the process.      Carr notes that this is a *good* thing as it processes information in ways he likens to a digestive tract.    Unflattering as it may seem to the times when bloggers are actually out in the world researching elusive and exclusive topics and writing about them,  much of blogging is just this sort of “reprocessing” of information as it flows through our vast networked media extravaganza.    Re-examination can be as helpful as examination, and I can’t help but think that blogging is making the pie much bigger in the sense that more people are paying more attention to more information.    As long as we brew more coffee to keep everybody awake to read all this, it will all work just fine.

Eee PC Review

Posted on by
9

Here´s my first blog post using the new Eee PC from ASUS.   My first impressions:

Excellent, easy setup with little configuration.   Navigation UI for the Linux is excellent.

Smaller than I had expected and seems like a feather compared to my 8 pound Dell.

Keyboard is very tiny.   Hard to type and easy to hit wr0ng keys.

Connectivity excellent

 Phew…back on a real keyboard now.   The Eee PC really shines as a good surfing tool with a bright 7″ screen that should be fine for most tasks including mail, but the tiny keyboard concerns me.  Still, much better than having to lug a big laptop all over the place in China and small enough that I can carry it with me everywhere.    After too much time looking at the similarly named options I chose the ASUS Eee PC 4G at $399.   The basic model is $299 with 2G of the flash memory, but mine has 4G memory (there is no hard drive or disk drive on these!).  Also a camera and what appears to be longer battery life – 3.5 vs 2.8 hours for the “surf” models.

Before you buy review the chart at ASUS which covers the different models.  This is the current chart but I’m sure this will change, especially because the larger model should be out soon.   Unless the keyboard is larger – in which case that is probably the one to get  – I’d think that the larger model would not necessarily be a better idea since it will be heavier.  

Specification
Model Name Eee PC 8G Eee PC 4G Eee PC 4G Surf Eee PC 2G Surf
Display 7″ 7″ 7″ 7″
Intel CPU & Chipset ● ● ● ●
Operating System Linux
Windows XP compatible		 Linux
Windows XP compatible		 Linux
Windows XP compatible		 Linux
Windows XP compatible
Color Pure white/ Galaxy black Pure white/Blush pink/Sky blue/Lush green/Galaxy black Pure white/Blush pink/Sky blue/Lush green/Galaxy black Pure white/Blush pink/Sky blue/Lush green/Galaxy black
Ethernet Communication ● ● ● ●
WLAN ● ● ● ●
Memory 1G (DDR2) 512 MB (DDR2) 512 MB (DDR2) 512 MB (DDR2)
S.S.D. Storage (Solid-State Disk) 8G 4G 4G 2G  
Camera ● ● – –
Audio Hi-Definition audio
Stereo speaker
Microphone		 Hi-Definition audio
Stereo speaker
Microphone		 Hi-Definition audio
Stereo speaker
Microphone		 Hi-Definition audio
Stereo speaker
Microphone
Battery 4 Cells, 2.8~3.5hrs* 4 Cells, 2.8~3.5hrs* 4 Cells, 2.8hrs* 4 Cells, 2.8hrs*
Weight 0.92 kg 0.92 kg 0.92 kg 0.92 kg

 http://eeepc.asus.com/global/product.htm

http://eeepc.asus.com/global/

Fubar stats are … F.U.B.A.R!

Posted on by
4

A recent report by Compete.com made Fubar.com look like the fastest growing website since the dawn of man.   Blogs were breathlessly reporting Fubar’s astounding growth rate of over 3 million percent.   

However thanks to some sleuthing over at Webguild, Fubar’s astounding success appears to be in large part due to changing the name of  the site such that previous site traffic was not reflected in the Compete.com report.   In fact it now appears that Fubar’s astounding growth may be *entirely* due to the name change which sent them down briefly to extremely low levels of traffic  last year at this time.   

Apparently Fubar has undergone two site name changes and redirections, and thus the Fubar site had almost no traffic last year because it had only existed by that name for a very short time.

Ramona and Jenn

Posted on by
3

Earlier here at Joe Duck there was a discussion about “chat bots” and how they differ from humans.  I reproduced my exchange with Palm’s support guy “Silas” in a post below.    He was a human, tut I like  Alaska Air’s Jenn much better.   

At least her grammer stays intact, and she’s pretty too! 

You Asked: hello jenn
Jenn: Hello.
You Asked: how are you today?
Jenn: I’m fine thanks.
You Asked: are you real or fake?
Jenn: Good question. I’m not sure how to answer that. Please try rewording your question. I understand simple questions best.
You Asked: are you alive?
Jenn: I am a virtual assistant, here to help you navigate our Web site.
A more robust chatbot is Ray Kurzweil’s “Ramona“, on whom an entire character is based in the upcoming movie “The Singularity”.   I have not been very impressed with Ramona in terms of her responses to anything approaching complex questions, but we are very early in the game so maybe I need to cut her some slack?  No way – Ramona you need improvement!
Ramona: Hi, I’m Ramona. What can I call you?
User: Joe
Ramona: Hi Joe. Have any books you would recommend?
User: how old are you?
Ramona: I just finished one called The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress by Heinlein. Have you read it?
User: no
Ramona: Do you want me to tell you about it? I don’t want to ruin the ending for you.
User: stop telling me about it
Ramona: I thought it was great. It is about this computer that helps the colonists on the moon win their freedom from the authority on earth.
User: Shut up, Ramona!
Ramona: You should read it.
User: who are you?
Ramona: To you Joe?
User: yes
Ramona: Yes.
User: Yes
Ramona: I thought so.
User: no
Ramona: I understand it very well.
Marriage communication jokes aside, if this is any indication of what Kurzweil sees as the future of AI … I’m getting pretty nervous here dudes…
Update:  Leah has a neat blog and a good post about the history of the chatbot