World Cup Standings


The World Cup has been fun to watch and here is a great little chart at the FIFA website with tournament standings and upcoming game times.    I think I’ll root for England because it’s time we all get over those tax problems of the 1770s.

The Globalist points out that international sports events are now signficant at a macroeconomic level, and that World Cup 2006 should add about 5 billion euros to the German GDP this year.    Their 2002 article was more interesting in terms of itemizing both the benefits to co-hosts Japan and Korea and the potential costs which included the *drag* on the UK economy if England made it to the final and people slacked off at work to watch their team.   Clearly, soccer sports quite an economic kick.

USA Travel from the eyes of Wikipedians


Wikipedia is great.  I use it a lot to research items of interest or newsiness and find it to be a super way to quickly introduce myself to complex topics like Global Warming, wars, etc.

I just stumbled on the "USA" article for the first time and find it really interesting how Wiki (currently) is carving up the country into travel regions.   I'm still deciding if I think this is a reasonable approach to explaining the USA travel scene.   I think I'm inclined to think these regions may be far too large to convey, for example, the huge difference between New York and DC or San Diego and No. California. 

New England — Home to gabled churches, rustic antiques, and steeped in American history, New England offers rocky beaches, spectacular seafood, rugged mountains, frequent winter snows, and historic cities. These states are small, so you could visit all of them reasonably within a week.

The Mid-Atlantic — Ranging from New York in the north to Washington DC, the Mid-Atlantic is densely populated and home to a number of the nation's largest cities, but also rolling mountains and traditional seaside resorts like Long Island and the Jersey Shore.

The South — With its own culture and traditions, the slow-going, friendly South is celebrated for its down-home cookin' and its blues, jazz, rock 'n' roll, and country music traditions. This lush, largely subtropical region ranges from the verdant (and refreshingly cool) mountains to stately agricultural plantations to vast cypress swamps.

Florida — Northern Florida is similar to the rest of the South, but head further south into the megaresorts of Orlando, retirement communities, and tropical Latin Miami. Don't forget to visit the Everglades, although you certainly wouldn't want to live there.

Texas — The second biggest state in the nation, it's like a whole other country (and in fact, once was). Terrain ranges from Southern swamplands to the cattle-ranching South Plains to the Mountains and desert of west Texas. And, it's even got its own distinctive cuisine.

The Midwest — More diverse than its reputation would suggest, the Midwest is home to rolling farmland, large forests, and picturesque towns as well as many bustling industrial cities. Many of these states border the Great Lakes, the largest system of freshwater lakes in the world, forming the North Coast of the U.S.

The Great Plains — Travel westward through these seemingly flat states, from the edge of the eastern forests through the praries and onto the High Plains, an enormous expanse of steppes (shortgrass prairies) as desolate as it was in the frontier heyday.

The Rocky Mountains — The spectacular snow-covered Rockies offer outdoor pursuits such as hiking, rafting, and skiing on some of the greatest snow on Earth. There are also other significant mountain ranges, deserts, and a couple of large cities.

The Southwest — Heavily influenced by Hispanic culture, the arid Southwest is home to some of the nation's most spectacular natural attractions, and a flourishing artistic culture. Although mostly empty, the region's deserts have some of the nation's largest cities.

California — California offers world-class cities, incredible vistas, national parks, mountains, deserts, rain forests, snow (and great skiing), and a famous beach lifestyle.

The Pacific Northwest — The pleasantly cool Pacific Northwest offers outdoor pursuits as well as cosmopolitan cities. The terrain ranges from spectacular rain forests to scenic mountains and volcanoes to sage-covered steppes and interior deserts.

Alaska — One fifth as large as the rest of the United States, Alaska reaches well into the Arctic, and features expansive mountainous wilderness.

Hawaii — A volcanic archipelago in the tropical Pacific, 2,300 miles from California (the nearest state), laid-back Hawaii has long been a vacation paradise.

Airline flight update frustrations..


I praised Kayak's flight selection service a few posts back, but I'm finding they are listing flights that are not available even after what appear to be many hours of non-availability. However, this does appear to be an American Airlines data problem more than a Kayak one so I'm still bullish on Kayak, but it sure is frustrating to see this note which appears at AA.com:

Check below for errors:

  • The flight you selected is no longer available. Please select another flight or modify your request

Arrgghhhhh!

A detailed study of the many services really is needed. Maybe I'll put that on the list.

UPDATE:  Using Kayak.com which sent me into AA.com booking system I did get an excellent rate MFR to BWI of $384 which appeared cheaper thanat AA.com's rate when I searched there independently of Kayak.  The 384 was over $100 cheaper than Orbitz, Farechase, or TravelNOW.

Kayak vs Sidestep = $200 Savings!


After gushing over Kayak's great flight search I realized I had not used Sidestep in some time and should give it a try.   In my opinion Sidestep used to really suck, requiring download of software to your browser and in my limited experience did not deliver good rates. 

Now, like Orbitz and Kayak, Sidestep allows easy browser based searching.  However for the 2-3 legged cross country flight I'm currently researching (MFR to BWI), Kayak blows away Sidestep and Orbitz with an American Airlines flight that is a whopping $200 less.  

This could be a quirk due to my rural Oregon location but I'm impressed nonetheless.  I also REALLY like Kayak's intuitive interface and the ease of selecting your previous searches very quickly.    Rates from the big systems are updated three times per day and availability can change even more frequently, so it's a good idea to search using the same criteria several times before you "give up" on a good rate.  Persistence pays in the bookings game and Kayak makes it easier to stay on task. 

Eventually I'll try to do a better more  balanced comparison where I'll pick a bunch of routes and run them on the different consolidation systems to see who wins, but first I'll do a few more of these quickie comparisons such as Kayak vs Yahoo's fairly new offering "FareChase".

Kayak.com shines as airline ticket tool


My initial experiments with Kayak over a year ago left me unimpressed, but Kayak.com has evolved into one of the best tools for finding cheap flights.  There are several notable features that make it a great way to search for flights when you have some flexibility and want a good price:

* You can select a date range of up to 3 days before and after your departure and return.  Without this feature Orbitz was probably better than Kayak for discount flight seekers, but now that Kayak's got it you are able to get a good fare picture for a range of dates.  

You must sign up for this but all that requires is a 10 second email signup.  A huge hat tip to Kayak's team for recognizing that even requiring a name and address is a barrier to sign ups.  Get all that mundane detail from people later or not at all.

* Also great is Kayak's ability to select different arrival airports with immediate fare updates allows you to fine tune your driving to flying ratios.   Especially helpful when traveling to areas where several major airports may be in close proximity to many final destinations.   BWI, IAD, and PHL for example or SFO, SMF, and OAK in California. 

Online vs Offline Advertising – an epidemic of irrationality.


Matt McAlister is unimpressed with online advertising.

OK, but take a look at OFFLINE dude! I replied to him over at his blog:

I think you may be overestimating the abysmal stats behind conventional advertising. Online, the 1% of people clicking into an advertiser's site at a cost of perhaps .15-.25 is very good. For example if you advertise a website prominently in a print publication you should expect perhaps 1/10th to 1/100th that level of performance (1 in 1000 to 1 in 10,000 readers) clicking to the site. I've tested this result using unique URLs and large print ads and the results were…underwhelming. I've seen no study to contradict my own results though I've noted many ad buyers tend to evaluate ad effectiveness in very questionable ways, such as when a $20,000 print campaign results in a few thousand leads and the conclusion is that it was a huge success.

Context ads have redefined the relationship between content and advertising in a positive way for both advertisers and publishers, and until a LOT more money flows from absurdly overpriced offline media to online, and thus starts to close the ROI gap, I think it is unreasonable to expect online ad models to change much, although do see them moving away from PPC and towards pay per action models which make performance measures somewhat more straightforward and PPC fraud almost impossible.
I think many online folks simply have no idea about the incredibly poor performance of offline advertising. My working hypothesis is that most advertising buys have negative ROI but that media companies and sales reps have done a very good job of convincing ad buyers that their advertising is working.

This article suggets that Google's failure to get high bids for print ads was an anomoly.  On the contrary I think this is a glimpse of the future of advertising, which will continue to move online until relative ROIs balance out.

Google selling print failed because print advertising is *dramatically* inferior to online and Google customers know this. Even online campaigns generally have negative ROI, but I suggest that most large, image driven print campaigns have negative ROI unless flimsy methodologies are used to measure ROI.

Few clients measure print effects well if at all, allowing advertising reps and companies to BS their way to keeping TV and print in play which is the main funding source for large media companies.

Based on my observations and experiments with print and online advertising in the travel sector It's an epidemic of irrationality, where few bother to measure ad effectiveness and those few who do measure it, and find print generally fails to deliver positive ROI, simply turn to subjective justifications for continuing failed campaigns.

Yahoo Maps “Go ahead, commercialize me”


Jeremy via the Yahoo Developer Blog clues us in that Yahoo has "lifted many of the restrictions associated with the Yahoo! Maps APIs. Until today, the APIs were available only for non-commercial use unless you applied for an exception. The concept of commercial and non-commercial has gone away and exceptions are no longer necessary in most cases".   [bolding and italics added by bold Italian Renaissance Artists]

Although I'm not surprised about this (Yahoo and Google reps at Mashup Camp in February were indicating that the future for API use was going to move  along these lines) I think it's superb and cool and a huge hat tip to Yahoo for, as usual, getting the big Web 2.0 picture right and right on.
The concept is echoed by Eric Schmidt at Google in his recent LA Times interview:
We don't do our own content. We get you to someone else's content faster. 

As a publisher I'm loving this.  Give me simple but robust tools and an advertising network and I'm happy to find content and work to create sites and share the revenues with those who manage the network and the APIs.

What is YOUR LIFE worth to the Dept of Transportation? About 2.7 Million.


This cost allocation study Notes that the EPA is willing to spend almost twice what the Dept of Transportation is willing to spend to keep YOU alive. The numbers seem old so there may be some adjustments, but interesting is this:

In policy and regulatory analyses, EPA uses a value of $4.8 million to represent the cost of a premature death. This value is the mean of estimates from 26 studies dating back to the mid 1970s that have attempted to place a value on the cost of premature deaths. Estimates from those studies range from $0.6 million to $13.5 million, reflecting the large uncertainties in trying to estimate the public's willingness to pay to avoid premature death.

The Department of Transportation has adopted a value of $2.7 million per premature death, based on a comprehensive 1991 study by the Urban Institute

People are reluctant to accept this type of "dollar valuation" analysis even though it's commonplace in legal settlements and is a VERY APPROPRIATE way to allocate public funds. Note that the 4.8 million dollars the EPA spends to save a life would save thousands of lives if spent in alternative ways. One can argue that the complexity of this type of analysis undermines the rationale behind using this "lives for dollars" game, but it's a weak argument. Yet even with this appropriate method of trying to allocate dollars to lives and then allocate them most effectively, we tend to apply funding in odd ways and squander billions due to political budgeting.

Travel Mashup Holy Grail


Hey, if I wasn't down with a sprained ankle I'd get to work on the ultimate travel mashup.   John asked for suggestions over at his excellent Web 2.0 resource site Programmable Web and I thought I'd throw this one out, which expands a lot on the "California Road Cams" mashups I'm hoping to have for Mashup Camp 2 coming in July.
 The Travel Holy Grail Mashup would harvest the spirit of Where 2.0 and some of Tim O'Reilly's very cool ideas. It would mash the following data in an easy to navigate interface:* City information from Wikipedia* Pictures of the city using the Flickr API * Road Cameras from state DOTs over Google Maps* Weather/traffic information from Yahoo Traffic* Geolocated blog content using the upcoming         technorati API and/or existing blog/map mashes.* Develop a system to allow drivers to use cell phones and onboard navigation devices to report accidents, weather, and road condition reports to a central web location which would standardize all the data and allow interfacing with any website.