Dodgeball vs Twitter

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alexa3

Originally uploaded by JoeDuck.

In a recent analysis for TechDirt Insight Community I was looking at mobile social networking. Although Alexa comparisons leave something to be desired this Twitter vs Dodgeball reach comparison is pretty darn striking, and shows how the more “robust” Dodgeball has been crushed by Twitter. My take on what happened with Twitter is simple: Twitter rocked the SXSW conference last year as the key networking application for a large number of “alpha” onliners. This popularity has carried over as mobile networking moved into the techno mainstream.

It’s not clear to me if Twitter – or any similar application – will hit regular folks in the same way only Myspace really has done so far with Facebook as a distant second in total social networking. Myspace’s popularity stands in stark contrast to the way it is largely disparaged in much of the hardcore tech community where people will use Twitter and LinkedIn and to some extent Facebook, but would probably laugh out loud at somebody who asked them to check out their Myspace page.

New Year’s Resolution: DON’T PANIC!

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OK, after struggling for, literally, many moments to come up with a good new year’s resolution I’ve found the right one for me to follow during our year of 2008 10,000+ MPH ride through the cosmos. 

Don’t Panic!

I don’t just think this is good advice for me, it’s good advice for everybody.   The world is a very complex, interconnected place and I’m increasingly inclined to think that over-reaction  has fueled more problems than more passive responses.  

I’m not advocating for total passiveness of course – more I’m suggesting that we should “shelve” the complicated and expensive problems we probably cannot solve, instead devoting the blood and treasure to those we can solve.   We should be proactive tackling the low-hanging-fruit problems that are cheap and easy – these are third world infrastructure, global health, some aspects of global poverty, and increasingly our tolerance to risk here in the developing world.    This last one is very much part of the don’t panic mantra.   Most people worry *so much* about very unlikely scenarios that they allocate our collective resources very ineffectively (by supporting overregulation, higher taxes, lawsuits, etc).    For example we should tolerate much greater risk in terms of air travel (where only a handful of people die each year) in order to get better seatbelt use, which would save thousands every year.    Concerns over pesticides in our vegetables are absurdly overblown by people who don’t understand science, while we largely ignore very significant health issues like Malaria and Rotoviral disease that kill millions each year.  Even if you only consider US risks, we worry about the wrong things (preventable hurricane deaths caused by global warming = 0.0 annually)  rather than the truly dangerous yet partly preventable things (automobiles and gun deaths = 50,000+ annually )    

More about this later, but I say Happy New Year and ….

DON’T PANIC!

Conscious Computers and Friendly vs Unfriendly AI

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As I’ve noted here in posts about AI many times I think we are within 15 years – probably fewer – of the most profound change in technology and humanity ever to hit the planet.   This will be the advent of conscious computers which we can reasonably expect to surpass us in all thinking and organizational skills within a very short time – probably months or even days of becoming conscious.    

Some AI folks believe that strong AI machinery will require a somewhat lengthy learning period, much like human intellects require, before becoming highly functional but I think the process will be very fast after consciousness happens.  In my opinion it is easy to exaggerate the significance of the intellectual complexity that comes from massive numbers of redundant, mostly simple processes.  Unlike humans, computer intelligences will grow extremly fast as soon as they “choose” that approach.   Initially those choices to expand will be programmed in by the human AI programmer, but it seems logical to assume that as computers design their own replacements they will continue to give the next generation “motivation”.     You don’t even need to assume it’ll happen in this proactive way though.   In a world with various forms of intelligences those that value their own survival will tend to increase in number simply through basic mathematical/evolutionary processes as those that do not value survival as highly simply are more likely to drop off the scene.

So, my cousin asked me today, why would a machine care much if at all about human welfare?    My gut says they will, and I think this is based on watching how humans care so much for their animals and even inanimate objects.    Also I think it’s important to note how crappily we take care of our fellow humans.    We consistently choose fighting and selfishness over harmonious existence. 

So I say give the computers a shot at making the world a better place!  

CESlebrities at CES 2008

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Here’s the press release from CES about the celebrities that will be there in official capacities.   I’m under the impression that a lot of celebrity folks also attend just to see what’s up in technology:  

What?! No Donny Deutsch?!

Arlington, Va., December 28, 2007 –

Award winning actors, musicians, comedians and sports stars all come together at the 2008 International CES&#174 to experience the hottest products and technologies in the consumer electronics industry.

The 2008 International CES, the world’s largest technology tradeshow, runs January 7-10 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Monday appearances feature Yoko Ono and Sony recording artists Natasha Bedingfield, will.i.am from the Black Eyed Peas and Pat Monahan of Train to unveil an all new John Lennon Educational Tour Bus at an invitation only press reception to be held in the Concierge Center from noon-1 p.m. Bedingfield will also perform in the Concierge Center at 4 p.m. that evening.

Indy Car driver and 2005 Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year, Danica Patrick, will race into the GoDaddy.com booth on Monday along with wrestling’s very own Candice Michelle. Both women will be at the Las Vegas Convention Center (LVCC), Central Plaza, CP2.

Science Fiction buffs can’t afford to miss XENA, live at noon as part of the CES conference session: Science Fiction’s Influence on Technology. Kevin Costner and his band will be performing that night at CEA’s Wireless Communications Division reception in the LVCC, Gibson tent from 6-7 p.m. followed by Rocco Deluca from 7-8 p.m.

Academy Award winning actor and producer Michael Douglas, best known for his dramatic acting (Fatal Attraction and Wall Street) and his powerful presence as a producer (One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest and Romancing the Stone), will be at XStreamHD’s invitation only press conference on Tuesday, January 8 at 11 a.m. in The Venetian, Casanova 503.

If you are a fan of the world champion Boston Red Sox – get ready. Big Papi, David Ortiz, will make an appearance at the SHARP booth, LVCC, Central Hall, 11024 from 2-3:30 p.m. on Tuesday. GoDaddy.com will bring in another big name on Tuesday -Olympic gold medalist, Amanda Beard, will visit Central Plaza, CP2.

Tuesday night will wrap up with the much anticipated Monster Cable concert at the Paris Hotel. Mary J. Blige will headline with Sheila E., Prince solo artist, and Joe Jackson, father to Janet and Michael Jackson, expected to be in attendance.

Mad Mike from MTV’s Pimp My Ride will be at Mitek’s booth, LVCC, North Hall, 2401 on Monday, January 7 from 1-2 p.m. and 4-5 p.m., Tuesday and Wednesday from 10-11 a.m., 1-2 p.m. and 4-5 p.m. MTX’s Mixed Martial Arts Team also be with Mitek for all show days from 11:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. and 2:30-3:30 p.m.

Graham Rahal, the son of U.S. motor racing legend Bobby Rahal, will for the first time get a taste of driving the BMW Sauber F1 Team racing car in the BMW Sauber F1 Team Pit Lane Park. Rahal will be at the LVCC, Gold Lot Exhibits, Gold-1 for all show days.

For more information about the 2008 International CES before, during and after the show, including celebrity appearances and special events, visit www.CESweb.org

CES 2008 coverage coming soon

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The Consumer Electronics Show – CES 2008 – the number one technology event in the world, is coming up fast and I’m excited to go as a first time attendee/press dude.    One of the nice tech blogger press perks is I’m getting invited to a lot of cool parties all over Las Vegas.   There is so much activity it’s hard to get a handle on it all. Like Las Vegas, there are far more things available than you could possibly do in a single day.  

The whole city of Las Vegas is basically taken over by geeks, geek wannabes, and even major pop celebrities during the several days of CES excitement.  I just heard that Kevin Costner’s rock band will be performing at one of the award shows.  Thousands of exhibitors and about 140,000 attendees make this the world’s premier tech event, where many companies will showcase and release hardware and software and hope for a good reception, because a good showing at CES can make or break a small company and even some large ones. 

Sunday’s keynote will be by Bill Gates, but I have to admit I’m more excited to attend the Monster Cable retailer awards at the Paris Las Vegas where Mary J. Blige will be performing as part of the party.   Now *that’s* a party!

In addition to my take on the event hundreds of other bloggers and CNET and all the mainstream media will have a lot of good coverage. Even MSNBC’s bombastic Donny Deutsch will be blogging the event for his “Road to CES” specials for his show “The Big Idea” 

Xiamen, China

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Update:   I’m going to China in April but will miss SMX China.  Xiamen was harder to get to than I’d originally thought given the rest of our schedule and China contacts are popping up in other places, so the new trip is Hong Kong April 1-4, Shanghai April 5-8, Beijing April 9-15, home to Oregon. 

 —————-

Still planning the trip to China for SES  SMX China 2008 in Xiamen, Beijing, Hong Kong, and Shanghai.    I am running into the internet challenge of really old information though.   For example I’d heard about a really cool ocean ferry that goes from Hong Kong to Xiamen.   It’s listed in my very new guidebook but some online sources say it’s not running anymore.   I got hopeful with this online blurb:

Hong Kong – Xiamen 1400 0800 Weekday 7245 from China Hong Kong City Pier  Xiamen – Hong Kong 1500 0900 EveryMon, Wed, Thu, Sat to China Hong Kong City Pier

Only to find the page was last updated…in 1997!

Google’s travel listings are pretty challenged in the USA so I should not be surprised that finding accurate China info could be trouble.    I’m online most of the day but have to admit the best sources of general China travel information so far have probably been word of mouth and my guidebook rather than online, though I’ve been using all of them together for best results.

The plan as of now is to fly to Hong Kong and spend about 3 days, then Train to Shanghai (20 hours, sleeper) for about 2 days, then to Beijing (13 hours by train) for about 3 days, then to Xiamen for Conference (which I’m hoping will be at the Xianglu Grand Hotel because it looks simply awesome!) then back to Hong Kong for the flight home.   But we are coordinating 3 schedules so we’ve still got some logistics to go.

China Visas appear to be a bit of a challenge as you can’t get them by mail.  I think most travel agencies will do this for you, but we are not planning to use one so somebody may need to go to San Francisco Chinese consulate.  Not a big deal as Charley lives down there and I’ll be near there later in January at the Web 2.0 Conference.

GPS Jesus nabs nativity ne’er-do-well

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After several baby Jesus statue thefts over the years, a woman in Florida decided to outfit a nativity scene with GPS tracking located in the statues.  Baby Jesus was nabbed again, but this time police could use the GPS to track the perpetrator to the house across from the crime scene and the nativity scene.

An 18 year old woman was booked on theft charges.

Engadget has more

In Memoriam: Benazir Bhutto

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The tragic murder of Benazir Bhutto, Pakistani moderate and champion of democracy, is yet another reminder of the instability in so many parts of our challenged world.  It is not clear to me how other countries will react if Pakistan falls into chaos.  Bhutto’s assassination, and the ongoing attacks on General Musharaff, bring that possibility closer as Pakistan’s hopes for a quality democracy drift again into the shadows.  

Strategically wise or not, I do not think the US, and perhaps even India, would tolerate nuclear weapons in the hands of some of the Pakistani  fundamentalist groups.  India and Pakistan have been very antagonistic towards each other since Pakistan’s fiery birth soon after Indian independence from Britain.  Disputes over the Kashmir region, claimed by both countries, flare up regularly.

Instability favors the extremists and those who support them.   The irony of extremist actions is that they rarely bring the changes desired by the extremists – rather they waste lives and resources, waste blood and treasure that could have been used to help those in need, and consolidate power in the hands of non-extremist but still questionable groups.

2008 will see a tidal wave of social online activity and applications

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My prediction about the evolution of the internet in 2008 is that we will see a lot more excellent applications like Flickr and Picasa to store, organize and share stuff as well as a lot more Twitterfeeds and Tumblrs which allow you to more easily share and assemble content you have stored or created elsewhere.

I don’t think there will be more huge breakthroughs in search or social applications, rather we’ll see people increasing and refining their use of social applications (and to a lesser extent search aps) and we’ll seee a huge number of new programs arise to accommodate the tidal wave of online social activity.

We’ll see blogging go much more mainstream and probably show signs of levelling off in the affluent world as those of us who are compelled to write all get blogs.    People in tech who like to write already have blogs, and people out of tech who like to write are mostly in the process of “getting blogs”, and I mean that in both senses of the word “get”.    In the developing world, with the advent of One Laptop Per Child and other great technology enabling projects, blogging will begin to take off in extraordinary fashion as everybody with something to share will soon have the means to … share it with everybody.

These are exciting times for those of us fortunate to be on earth and online.   Let’s not screw it up, OK?