Daily Archives: February 5, 2007

Putting my money where my Yahoo is?

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My post of about an hour ago, “Yahoo’s big day” convinced me I should put more money where my mouth is on Yahoo’s prospects so using the justifications below I just bought about $1000 in Yahoo March 30.00 calls. (in options “bought” is functionally equivalent to “bet”).

My kilobuck effectively gives me the right to sell 2000 shares of Yahoo anytime between now and March 17. For example if Yahoo falls after today it’s likely I’ll lose *all* of my bet. However if Yahoo rises to, say, $35.00 per share by March 16 I could “exersize” the options for a cool $10,000. Unlikely, but I think the market does not incorporate online advertising revenue and profit information very efficiently. In theory this means … opportunity!Today Yahoo fully launches the new ad matching routine, an artistic program formerly known by the name of “Panama”. My understanding is that if they can even come close to Google’s quality matching ads to searches Yahoo will make quite a bit more.

Yahoo’s a much higher traffic site than Google though Google still has the big search share.

Thus my bet is simple here – that people will realize this week that Yahoo has the *potential* for much higher revenues and profit, and his will bump them up 10+% by next week which would put these options in the money.

Options have “time value” which reflects the chance the stock will go up or down in value and they have “intrinsic”value which is the difference between the stock price and the option price. I paid .52 per share in the hopes the stock price will increase soon. Somewhat counter intuitive is the fact that even a modest increase, if it happens this week as I predict, could double my money without the stock ever reaching the strike price.

YHQCF
CALL YAHOO INC MAR 30
Quantity 20 Contracts $1054

Disclaimer: I also have Yahoo Stock. I could have bought about 40 more shares vs betting on these 2000 shares worth of options to rise quickly. But this’ll be more fun to watch for the next month.

Instant Update:
Wh00t Yah00000t! I’m up $120 after 15 minutes. So far this is fun.
Last Trade [tick] 0.58

Yahoo’s Big Day?

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The NYT reports that today is of great interest at Yahoo as Yahoo fully launches their new contextual advertising matching routines. If successful, Yahoo’s profits could soar this year. Ironically it was Yahoo that aquired the company that effectively invented the pay per click ad model (GOTO renamed Overture now renamed Yahoo Publisher Network). This happened many years ago, but Yahoo failed to capitalize on the head start and it was Google that created a brilliant ad matching algorithm. This ad matching routine allows Google to make a lot more money per visitor than Yahoo and other search engines. Since Google also has a lot more search visitors, their profits have been skyrocketing while Yahoo and Microsoft search profits have languished.It’s interesting to think how little tweaks can quickly impact the amount of money flowing through these systems. Google makes over ten million per *day* from online ads, Yahoo much less but still millions per day. Thus if, for example, the matching routine screws up for a *few hours* and shows irrelevant ads Google can lose millions of dollars in revenue. Conversely if Yahoo can match Google’s ad matching prowess with the new system there’s a lot of money they’ve been effectively leaving on the table that’ll flow into Yahoo’s revenue stream and profits.

Disclaimer: I have some Yahoo Stock.