NYT reports that music sales declined very substantially and that this fact may portend serious problems for the music industry. Makes sense to me. For some time there have been many silly suggestions from music download enthusiasts that downloading was not going to cut into profits and that revenue alternatives to traditional music sales would present themselves eventually. Of course they won’t, but it’s all good. The music industry is driven by superficial mass appeal and good riddance to it. Thanks to abundant downloading venues, cheap production, and the rise of online promotion tools like Myspace we’ll hopefully see people democratically decide who are the best bands and which deserve their support. Let the people drive music consumerism for a change rather than media moguls.
Paying *only when you get results* is an advertisers dream, and it’s been largely unattainable because it’s so hard to track the true performance of conventional media. Enter the internet age where you can track performance, and now enter Google, with a huge stable of advertisers who will soon be able to use their amazing analytics and advertising tools to do just that.
Google’s pay per performance is NOT a new idea, but it will probably be the first globally significant application of that idea.
Predictions? I think advertisers are going to quickly learn that the advertising emperors have far fewer clothes than they’d thought, and that all but a few great campaigns have positive ROI. Big advertisers have to date been largely incompetent with math, foolishly trusting big agencies who do self serving ROI calculations. This will change, and it’ll be a revolution in advertising.