Google will strike gold with mobile OS


Well, Google does it again with yet another online brilliancy. How do you market a “Google Phone” without paying a dime for hardware development? Engaget is reporting that Google appears more likely to release a mobile OS to multiple phone vendors rather than develop it’s own phone. This is a *really clever* approach because it will allow Google to maintain core competency focus on software and advertising, something that founders appear to think has been lacking lately with the many aquisitions. Also, this will bring market forces to bear to quickly lower the price of iPhone-like mobile devices. How does Google benefit from lower prices on browsing phones? Why, ADVERTISING of course! Ads remain about 98% of Google revenue and mobile ads are arguably the online sector with the most explosive growth potential. Rather than go head to head with the iPhone Google will continue to sing it’s praises and then simply scoop up all the juicy advertising revenues as users demand Googley browsing capabilities on their phones. Vendors may get squeezed by customers to lower prices on the phones but Google still comes out a big ad winner.

No wonder they can throw such a lavish Google Party every year!

FOX Sucks


So I’m watching the ‘Teen Awards’ with my 11 year old daughter. Hilary Duff, Hannah Montana, and, WTF!!?? (pls forgive the modern parlance) here comes Snoop Dog and then the “Party like a Rock Star” finale.

Here are the lyrics from FOX’s awards show targeting kids of all ages:

i’m on a money makin mission
but I party like a rockstar
flyin’ down 20 lookin’ good in my hot car
you know them hoes be at my show
worried bout where my chain go
I uh rubba in ma pants
but these hoes won’t let my thang go

I uwa like I uwa
cuz you know them hoes be tryin us
hoe don’t you know I fuck wit fine dimonds
that look like Pa-me-la
they fine and they hot bra
when i’m in the spot bra……
I PARTY LIKE UH ROCKSTAAARRR!!!!!
!

Let me just say on behalf of a lot of parents that I’m so totally sick of the BS that passes as family fare. This is not prudish, it is a recognition that the extensive commercializing of kid-focused media is leading to a complete distortion of what should be considered appropriate family content.

Almost all sane people favor media censorship in some forms. For example most favor restrictions on child pornography and consider it a parental obligation to keep kids away from extreme violence and adult content. But FOX and other network “family shows” that use adult themes masquerading as “Family Fare” make it almost impossible to do what parents are obligated to do – restrict adult themes. This is especially outrageous because critics of censorship typically argue that parents are simply avoiding their obligations when they rant against the media’s sexual assault on children. “just turn off the TV” squeak the idiots who generally don’t have kids, have a huge monetary stake in continuing the media’s sexual assault on children, and rarely provide a thoughtful solution to the growing challenges facing a modern, open minded parent. Do you advocates for unrestricted modern media have *NO* shame? NO creative solutions to this? Or are you just too drugged out, drunk, or morally bankrupt to care at all?

SES San Jose – links built the web – are SE’s saying links are now ruining the web?


Search Engine Strategies 2007 has wrapped up and I think the hottest topic this year was linking and how links are treated by search engines.

The irony of the link debate is that regardless of your view about *paid linking*, we now see that the paid linking abuses combined with aggressive anti-paid linking policies of the search engines have distorted how *unpaid linking* works, and this is nothing short of tragic because links are the key to the web.

I’m very concerned about how Google’s obsession with paid linking and other linking schemes has dramatically changed – and often poisoned the waters – around legitimate unpaid linking of the type done in the early web. I don’t have a solution other than much greater guidance from Google about what they see as legitimate linking patterns. NOFOLLOW rings hollow to me as anything approaching a solution here.

Hyperlinking was the brilliancy that launched the web. Tim Berners-Lee is sometimes credited with this concept of the hyperlink as the foundation of internet relevance.

Enter Google’s Larry Page who developed pagerank as a measure of a sites general level of community interest. This was a spectacular insight, based on the notion of academic citations. Page realized that ranking sites partly with a measure of the web’s own linking patterns was a great way to enhance the relevancy for a query. In a sense this was a global Web 1.0 social network where user interactions were measured and factored into the ranking mix. In this early web world links flowed fairly freely and without monetary considerations. Links were a vote for other sites or a favor to friends with new websites or just a way to play around with HTML.

Enter the power of the internet as a medium for commerce, leading to loads of cash, from many players who wanted to *rank high at Google* so they could sell more stuff or simply set up sites that would rank high so that highly ranked site could sell ads or use affiliations with others who were selling stuff. This led to an explosion in paid linking, off topic linking, massive reciprocal linking, and other link schemes and scams designed to raise ranking for sites using non-natural linking that would trick the Google algorithm into thinking the site was really more popular (ie more linked to), than otherwise.

Enter Google’s “NO PAID LINKS!” policies and aggressive crackdown on the practice of buying and selling links. This takes many forms including site penalties, “no pass pagerank” penalties, and Google’s recommendation that the “nofollow” tag be applied to any link that is paid as well as many others such as ‘self referencing’ links from comments at blogs.  Blog comment NOFOLLOW is a good example of how Google policies may be distorting the logical growth of the web.  If somebody leaves an intelligent and extended comment at a blog with a link back to their site they have created legitimate web content and the linking structure of that content should be incorporated into the web linking patterns.  As a user *I want* people who actively engage in blog comments to rise to the top and I want them to reference their own blogs!  Also, by simply making many forms of blog commenting irrelevant to ranking I think we’ve seen  *diminished* tendency for people to comment because as a blogger they want to rank and they know this won’t help them.  NOFOLLOW at Wikipedia is another great example of a problem, since in many cases a WIKIPEDIA link is an *excellent* quality signal that is destroyed with NOFOLLOW.

Most significant is the fact that most onliners now understand how valuable links are in a commercial sense and therefore are resistant to linking for this reason. This is the real tragedy. There are exceptions like Robert Scoble or Jeremy Zawodny who go to some length at their blogs to link extensively to new and interesting content. However on balance many bloggers – especially those on the infamous “A list” – now reserve links for their friends or for indirect commercial uses such as helping other sites get a rank boost.

This last point seems lost on Google as well as many A list bloggers when they discuss the implications of paid linking schemes and pay to post blogging. Indirect monetization is still monetization and changing the links game seems to be leading people to change – quite dramatically – the way they publish and link. Or perhaps more importantly changing people so they do not link like they used to do in the good old days. This is my main beef – people don’t link like they would have in the old days because they think they are “giving away big value for nothing”.

Linking, once the very heart of the web, are now the wampum of the web, and this is leading to a lot of undesirable consequences.

Wrapping up day 3 of SES San Jose Search Strategies Conference


For great session coverage of SES see the following sites:

SEO Roundtable

Search Engine Land

SEOmoz

Bruce Clay

Technorati “SES” tag

TopRank Blog

Yesterday’s “Is Buying Links Evil” was by far the most interesting and heated of the sessions. Google’s Matt Cutts was under heavy fire from Todd Malicoat and Michael Gray regarding Google’s aggressive policies on paid linking and the application of the NOFOLLOW tag. The best question came from Rand Fishkin who asked Matt Cutts if it would be preferable to do without NOFOLLOW and have better, scalable, algorithmic ways to determine link relationships. Matt indicated it would and this gets to the huge middle ground in the paid linking debate. I think SEO folks, especially those who worked back in the gravy days of massive paid linking, should have expected Google to crack down on the practice but I would *strongly* criticize Google for not bringing more transparency to this issue by clarification of their paid link penalty structure and what appears to be a lot of leniency for paid linking in many situations. Many links, such as those a brief aquaintance might give to another person who opens a new website, are probably in line with guidelines but are essentially identical in structure to a paid link. In this case adding nofollow is totally inappropriate since the goal is to indicate a mild endorsement of the new site. I suspect this type of link is treated favorably by Google and I’m wildly guessing that they err on the side of not penalizing this type of link, but that is not clearly indicated in the policy statements or in the talks I’ve had with Google search folks. This failure to clarify, combined with Google asking for “help” in finding paid links, has led to more frustration in the Webmaster community than Google thinks it has caused. One indication of this was the huge applause given to parts of the “anti Google” presentations yesterday. As always Matt Cutts handles this with great composure and I think a very sincere desire to make things work well for all players, but I’d recommend that Google really examine the linking policies carefully and issue a detailed and full clarification of “legitimate linking practices” with, literally, thousands of examples. Will this be reverse engineered for SEO benefit? Yes, but if it’s written correctly it can improve the web rather than leading to confusion about linking and the rampant continued use of paid linking schemes.

Links are a big theme here and I’m now off to Danny Sullivan’s session on “Search Engine Q&A On Links”

SES San Jose – Jim Lanzone on Ask’s upcoming billion dollar search deal


ASK CEO Jim Lanzone was the first keynoter here at Search Engine Strategies San Jose, and Lanzone gave a lot of insightful answers to Chris Sherman’s excellent series of questions about ASK’s future in search and advertising.   A few highlights:

“It’s not a zero sum game” said Lanzone, noting their cooperation with Google in a 100,000,000 ad sponsorship deal and saying the next deal will be in the billions and could be with other players as well as Google.  

ASK 3d is leading to some interesting findings, esp. that 50% of the ASK 3d activity is not in the search listings portion.  Lanzone feels the sweet spot is in the “Collective Context” that billions of searches are bringing to the table now.    ASK’s new “Edison Algorithm” will seek to make sense of the maelstrom of data ASK has from their search property as well as the dozens of separate IAC online businesses.

“Search is now your co-pilot”, said Lanzone, and suggested that the value of search based ads is still very high compared to traditional media.  

Sherman noted that Lanzone’s “Etour” was similar to StumbleUpon.   Lanzone said it was before it’s time and was “Darwined out”.   No plans to revive it are pending. 

Search Engine Strategies – Google Party


Day one of the four day SES conference is wrapping up although a lot of the conference action takes place at restaurants and bars after hours.   I think for most people the highlight of SES is the huge Google Party which will be held tomorrow night at the Googleplex in Mountain View.   “Meet the Engineers” is one of only a handful of times each year when you can talk directly to a large number of people on the Google search team – the other is WebmasterWorld’s “PubCon”  in Las Vegas.

One thing I learned today is the Google’s Marissa Mayer is an expert in Artificial Intelligence (yikes – ValleyWag says Marissa IS an Artificial Intelligence!), and I’m hoping I’ll get a chance to ask a few questions tomorrow after her keynote about where she sees Google’s AI efforts heading over the next 5-10 years.  Larry Page was recently quoted as suggesting that a human-like thinking “algorithm” could well be cracked fairly soon, and Google is one of the places where this type of innovation might actually take place.  That said, based on my talk with Matt Cutts a few years back I don’t think AI as a search driver is a Google priority.  I was surprised then to hear that Matt felt quality AI driven search was still many years away.    Google has to maintain a practical edge to things so they probably can’t put a huge effort behind a “conscious computing” effort, though I get the idea from Kurzweil’s book that a Googley “massively parallel” info architecture may be more likely to bring consicousness to a machine than, for example, the IBM Blue Gene style supercomputer.

Blogs covering or writing about the SES Search Conference

Session coverage roundup from Barry at Search Engine Land

Search Engine Strategies

Dvorak – 2.0 bubble to burst for sure. ?


The normally perceptive John Dvorak may be showing signs of his “old computer” and “old media” roots by predicting that Web 2.0 will be collapsing for sure. He’s certainly correct that things *might* collapse but everybody knows this. New massive economies – be they the online economy or China’s exploding economy – are inherently somewhat unstable as they rapidly change and flex to meet new demands and bring in new ideas.

However I think John’s missing the fact that the online economy is now well established enough that although players – even big ones like Google – may fall or stumble it is very unlikely we’ll see the widespread systemic meltdown of the late 1990’s. The most important reason is that online advertising is more effective than offline advertising. Ads are the mother’s milk of online business. Google revenues, for example, are about 99% advertising. Can this market collapse? Unlikely unless because it’s delivering superior ROI to advertisers even as those advertisers continue to spend on less effective offline media, which is still the lion’s share of total ad spending.

In the 1990’s the PE ratios for companies were often off the charts, where now we see Yahoo, MS, and Google all well within the historic ranges for technology companies. The names may change but it’s very unlikely that the revenue base – advertising – will dry up anytime soon. Ergo, the web will continue to grow and evolve and continue to replace traditional media with …. better stuff.

Sorry John – time to write that screenplay?

Don Dodge has this right – Old media influence, not Web 2.0 media, is what John should be fretting about.

Caveat:   As I’ve noted before many times the new paradigm for Web 2.0 companies is an evolutionary model.   As with species we are going to see that most of the Web 2.0 companies will fail and die.  But this is NOT at all a ‘collapse’ because the system as a whole will continue to expand and thrive.    We are seeing high numbers of low capitalized companies  with VC funders of those few that get money simply hoping for a few winners.  This is, in some ways, analogous to the way nature kills off most gene mutations, leaving the most successful animals to thrive and be copied (aka reproduce).   This is not an old business model but it’s a perfectly reasonable one … unless you get killed by it in which case it’s still perfectly reasonable, you just won’t like it.

The rumors of PodTech’s death may not be greatly exaggerated?


Update:   As far as I know PodTech is doing fine as of December 2007, and the rumors back in July were bogus or exaggerated.   Just heard from John Furrier that PodTech will again host a “bloghaus” at CES, one of the neatest “social tech” ideas last year in my opinion.    I’m a big fan of all that Robert Scoble has done to evangelize quality corporate blogging and really wish PodTech the best.

——————–

Mike Arrington is reporting that PodTech is in trouble. I think this is consistent with the idea that content is no longer king – it’s a pawn in the big game to leverage the flood of free content and social networking activity, a game where the winners will NOT be the product of doing the “right thing”, rather winners will be the survivors of the evolutionary process that drives our rapidly changing digital ecosystem. Biological evolution works *away from failure* rather than towards success, and it seems clear to me this is also how internet company evolution works.

Mike suggests that PodTech might survive in modified form by scaling back and lowering their “burn rate” and focusing almost exclusively as a production and advertising house focusing on their own clients. I wrote over there:

Good insight as usual Dr. Mike.

“… get their burn rate very low” ummmm – can you cite any examples of a companies that did this in time to survive?

I enjoy Robert’s perspectives and consider him a real blogging leader and a digital inspiratation to the rest of us, but I don’t have the time to invest in his videos or PodTech’s other rich content. (just the facts please!)

Producing quality content is now playing with pawns rather than kings, and for some time it will be the companies that leverage the flood of free content or help people process the maelstrom of content that will win. e.g Facebook, Google, and your personal favorite winner, TechCrunch!

The painful thing if PodTech dies is that they did so many thing exactly “right”. They saw video and blogging as sweeping new online paradigms, they hired Robert Scoble who is nothing short of a digital inspiration to bloggers and video folks – he’s one of the elite onliners who puts his blog, money, reputation where his mouth is and actually engages non-elites regularly and with gusto and stays about as Web 2.0 connected as you can without exploding. Also, PodTech sponsored what looked to me like CES’s best new idea – the Bloghaus.

But planning and quality don’t necessarily breed success in biology or business, and PodTech may be just one more example of the harsh new evolutionary realities facing any digital animal.

As Paul K infectiously notes business plans are overrated. Twitter’s lack of a business plan may be the flip side of the evolutionary challenges – disorganization won’t hurt them and might even be part of the reasons it’s looking like Twitter will be …. hugely successful.

Waiting for OnRebate ‘s “no wait” rebate?


Update:  OnRebate replied to this post, and I think that is nice of them.

———————

My son just assembled a new and very fast PC from parts we bought at TigerDirect, but suffering through the rebate submission process is sure diminishing the educational value of this for me. Even though he’s doing much of the paperwork himself I just spent close to an hour figuring out the silly details and going offline, online, and printing the various forms required.

I suppose it’s teaching him something, though so far it is mostly “why is dad cursing at the rebate people?”.

Onrebate.com is processing 2 of the 5 rebates we are due. From a technical point of view the system seemed to work OK but the “no wait” rebate option that offers what they say is an “almost instantaneous” rebate is a lesson is how OnRebate is using deceptive doublespeak marketing BS. This “instantaneous” rebate will come to me after they process all the paperwork rather than after they simply match my input to the existing sales records (that would be neat, and it’s clearly what they implied they were going to do).

Sure the stakes here are low with $40 and $20 rebates but I resent how companies like this effectively prey on the inexperience of their customers and the complexity of the rebate process to lower the response rates as well as tag on extra charges. Good rebate systems (Staples comes to mind – Kudos to them) are still an inconvenience but I respect the fact that fraud is a big issue now. Bad rebate sytems are usually immoral attempts at marketing ripoff schemes or reduce response rates (a multi-billion dollar scam that is perfectly legal). I’m not putting OnRebate in this category yet but they are sure on my list for potentially seeking to reduce response rates. Incredibly they also wanted to charge a sneaky $4 “no wait” fee for the rebate that would still require weeks of waiting, just not their normal wait time of several months.

Summary: Beware rebates in general and beware sneaky marketing doublespeak from OnRebate.

Update: Here’s an interesting thread about OnRebate problems. Note that the helpful OnRebate rep no longer works there though it looks like she was great in dealing with complaints. http://www.ripoffreport.com/reports/0/149/ripoff0149417.htm#217843

Travel Tip: Roomsaver Travel Coupons Rock


Here we are in Gettysburg, PA.    The Days Inn here in Gettysburg is simply excellent with well appointed, extremely clean rooms and comfort.   Grounds are spotless and pretty.  The pool is large, warm, clean.  Desk staff has been *outstanding* and professional.   Rack rate at the Days Inn website was $141 but the Roomsaver Coupon made the rate $49.00.

Roomsaver and other major discount coupon havepage after page of advertising and a few bad maps.   But don’t underestimate these coupons.  The books generally require that this “walk in, only when rooms are available” rate be the lowest the property offers to the public, and in my experience this has been the case.   More importantly the availability of these is very good on most days.    Even in tourism hot spots like here in Gettysburg hotels generally have vacancies Sunday-Thursday nights.    Do NOT expect to use the coupons on Friday or Saturday nights or during special events or high crowd times, but always ask about availability of discounts and always keep coupon books in your car.  You’ll find them at many McDonalds and gas stations, especially those along the interstates.

Summary:

For mid-week travel try coupon book rates which are often 60% or more off the regular rates.