UPDATE: Ann's clever simulations indicate the odds are as stated on the show.
The TV Show "Deal or No Deal" appears to be a complex variation on the Monty Hall problem, but it's NOT. I'm deleting my earlier *failed logic* which was wrong.
Apparently Monty's intentions matter in the 3 door game as follows:
Contestant picks door – this door will NOT be opened.
THUS there are 3 possible ways for the remaining 2 doors to be opened:
Empty, Empty
Empty, Prize
Prize, Empty
In Monty Hall, he KNOWS where the prize is and always uncovers an empty door. However in a game where the host does NOT know and thus the prize CAN be uncovered, the game universe will EXCLUDE the Prize, Empty option. This exclusion changes the odds, with each remaining option having a 1/3 chance of happening = equal odds whether you switch or not.
Joe Duck 