Why are we failing?


Can you have too much concern over safety and security?    Yes, and we do in this country.   Far too much though I don’t expect things to change any time soon.    Our irrational perceptions of risk are damaging our economy more severely than most people understand, mostly thanks to the two massive wasteful spending categories national defense/military and social services.    Ironically each party has its sacred cows for spending and despite the nonsensical bluster from both McCain and Obama we’ll see huge ongoing budget deficits regardless of who is elected.

Humans are designed to act in short term, which is why we should not trust ourselves to do effective long term planning.   This is one of the reasons the founders advocated a small and flexible government and economic structure with high levels of personal accountability.

On a more specific note along these lines Tim O’Reilly notes in a post called Why are we failing at math and science?

Because it isn’t fun any more. When you put safety on the highest altar, what do you give up? When fear of lawsuits — not to mention fear of technology — drives product design, marketing, and public policy, you eliminate science at its roots, in the natural experimentation of kids who want to know how the world works.

Tim’s point is narrower than my general contention that we must learn to accept much greater levels of *certain types of risk* in our daily lives to avoid the ongoing reckless spending.   However the general rule he’s talking about applies to almost all aspects of our lives – from our indefensible military budget of 550 billion (not including the ongoing wars) to obscenely expensive CO2 mitigation schemes.    When people perceive risk irrationally as they tend to do with respect to terrorism and global warming, they accept irrational resource allocations.

I’m actually only suggesting we increase the risk in our lives by a fairly small amount.  Contrary to what people perceive, the riskiest things in our lives are generally cheap fixes.    Auto accidents, for example, are mostly caused by drunk driving, and more seat belt use would save thousands of lives and avert tens of thousands of injuries every year at a tiny fraction of the cost of, say, saving lives with high tech medical interventions.

The military is where most of the waste is but the calculations are complicated by the fact that a “zero military” option would certainly lead to the overthrow of the US by hostile powers.   Clearly the US needs to have a powerful defensive capability, though the notion that this requires spending of over a trillion every two years is beyond the pale and no rational person can be both a fiscal conservative and a big spender on military.    In a similar vein liberal spending advocates absurdly suggest that massive spending on education and social services somehow “primes” the economy to greater heights of prosperity.

Solutions?     Reallocate taxation and spending along rational lines which means massive reductions in spending in most sectors which can fuel increases where spending will do the most good (inner city health care has a huge ROI compared to research hospital neonatal wards).   Third world health ROI dwarfs that in first world.  Why are those guys worth so much less than you or I?

Rat Brained Robot


This amazing project is using rat brain neurons  to control robots.    Like other projects of its kind, they are finding that the neurons almost immediately seek interconnection – in some ways they appear to be  pre-programmed (aka evolutionarily designed) to assemble into more advanced forms.

Unfortunately for misguided and shortsighted ethical reasons reasearches are not using human neurons, but as they note here that’s not a huge problem because our human brain cells have a lot in common with rats cells – or other vertebrates for that matter.

As Kevin Warwick, the project architect who one might call something of an “Dr A.I. Frankenstein”, notes:

…. rats brain cells are not a bad stand-in: much of the difference between rodent and human intelligence, speculates Warwick, could be attributed to quantity not quality.

Thanks to Glenn for the tip!

Digital Hollywood at CES


I thought I’d repost part of this note from the Digital Hollywood folks at CES 2009.   They run several of the sessions that deal with the convergence of the online world with TV, Film, and more.

For me one of the most powerful technology themes is the fact that TV remains the big kahuna of advertising even as awareness grows that online advertising is far more effective – at least in its common pay per click form.    It remains to be seen if video clip advertising, such as what Google is experimenting with at YouTube, will ever take off as a major revenue source for publishers.    It certainly has been underwhelming so far, I think in part simply because it is performing as poorly as almost  *all forms of offline advertising*.    The difference is that online metrics allow us to monitor performance in ways we have not been able to do before, and perhaps more importantly the online metrics help disconnect the analyst from the marketeer.

In travel it is very commonplace for the same group running the ads to do the analysis of their effectiveness.   This is a preposterous state of affairs, yet it persists.    There are now some sneaky variations on the theme which include specialized “travel marketing” agencies that appear to have methods that inflate effectiveness.    Why?    This prevents them from biting the hands that feed their research.

—————— DIGITAL HOLLYWOOD CES 2009 —————————

The agendaand call for speakers – for the CES conferences- January 7-10, 2009 in Las Vegas – Reinventing Advertising, Mobile Entertainment, Game Power & Digital Hollywood at CES, Las Vegas Convention Center, see http://www.digitalhollywood.com/CES2009.html
is now posted.

Speakers are being booked now. Your submissions are welcome.

We are proud to be organizing the most significant conferences at the most significant and largest trade show in America. CES has over 140,000 attendees, over 4500 press, over 1000 financial analysts and over 2700 exhibitors.

We are organizing four tracks at CES:
Digital Hollywood Events at CES
Session Keys:
RA
– Reinventing Advertising
ME
Mobile Entertainment
GP
Game Power
DH
Digital Hollywood

Billion Dollar House?


Billion Dollar House

Billion Dollar House

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.

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This is the world’s first billion dollar home.  Yes, that’s $1,000,000,000 smackers.

Not the silly UK Billion which is really just a million.

That’s a pretty big chunk of change for a home sweet home.    I don’t mean to offend the designer or anything, but I think I might ask to trade this in for, say a  THOUSAND million dollar homes.    Think about it.   This, or you could have an average of about 8 great million dollar homes in every single country in the world.    Or you could live nicely and then give away nine-hundred-ninety-nine  ONE Million dollar homes to needy rich people.    OR, you could have a pretty decent 99,900,000 dollar home and a cool Tesla roadster and then pocket nine hundred million for the gas you won’t need to drive your electric car.

The Hockey Stick Controversy …


You are well advised to avoid the globally frustrating mistake of getting interested in the underpinnings of climate science as it relates to global warming, climate models, paleoclimate reconstructions, the IPCC, Al Gore, and the academy awards.

However if you fall into the trap of actually looking at the science you’ll be interested in an excellent lay summary of the hockey stick controversy by Bishop Hill. I wish he’d left out the perjorative stuff because I think he’s done a nice job of documenting some of the irregularities that seem to shape the modern debates among scientists, statisticians, and political forces.

Here’s a harder to read but perhaps more objective review of the Hockey Stick at Wikipedia.   This debate is important more from a political view than a scientific one as the graph is a key cornerstone for global warming activism even though it is NOT a cornerstone for the science, which to most experts clearly indicates human caused global warming is a problem.

Although warming is clear and human causes are likely, a reasoned review of the science hardly suggests catastrophe is looming.   This is the advanced debate which is only just beginning – given that we have warming caused by humans, how aggresssively should we work to stop it?   At what cost should we work to keep CO2 from rising?

I remain confused about how much problematic math and insider politics within the climate scientist community should affect our perception of global warming’s threat to the planet, but no reasonable observer can maintain that pristine science has shaped the current debate over global warming.    Spend an hour at RealClimate.org reading the defense of the film “An Inconvenient Truth” by several internationally prestigious climate scientists to see what I mean.

Ironically as the scientific debate becomes far more nuanced than it was even a few years ago, the *political debate* is effectively over.   The political/alarmist camp says that Global warming is destroying earth and we need to make drastic changes … yesterday … to avoid climate castastrophes of greater-than-biblical proportions.

Catastrophe isn’t looming, but it’s also true that we are damaging things possibly beyond repair.  That does not mean we should spend trillions trying to fix these problems while greater problems loom so large on earth, but it suggests we should do every cheap thing we can and find better ways to pull energy from our environment.

Beijing Olympic Village … 4 months ago…


Olympic Village … 4 months ago…

Originally uploaded by JoeDuck

The Beijing folks are such amazing capitalists that they were literally selling off the Olympic Village housing complex as luxury apartments in April – about four months before the Olympics!

The Olympic area is to form a new upscale residential area for Beijing, which has grown out many miles via concentric rings of development that began at the “center” of Beijing at Tiananmen Square.

Beijing Olympics Coverage = Awesome


OK, so I’ve got Gymnastics on the TV and Table Tennis early rounds on the computer.    HUGE kudos to NBC and Microsoft for providing such a superb streaming and downloadable video environment – this is definitely NOT your father’s technological Oldsmobile Olympics.

Effective with Beijing we are seeing how powerfully technology can cover major events.  In this case the coverage was very expensive, but as these technologies mature and bloggers become more adept at webcasting we can expect a lot of visibility where there was little before.

Cool.

Erick at TechCrunch has a problem with the coverage and is calling NBC lame, but he’s very wrong about compatibility and lameness.    Bob Kostas’ deadpan nonsense notwithstanding, NBC rules.

Rocketboom and the Barons on Video


Wow, once again for interesting stories about sex, lies, and videotape you need look no further than your computer screen.   Here’s the interesting scoop that is leading to some nastiness in the chattering nonsense of my favorite technology blogOsphere:

After noting on Twitter a nasty debate about “self made” vs “sugar daddied” between online content guys Jason Calacanis and Andrew Baron this popped up:

ValleyWag reports:
The Rocketboom episode neatly explains why the world of online video so resembles film school, a parent-funded enterprise of self-indulgent auteurs with macroambitions viewed by microaudiences (including yours truly). Sony’s deal doesn’t affirm the potential of online video as a means of creative expression; it simply tells us that the rich, despite themselves, can’t help getting richer.

Rocketboom was the early tech news show hosted by Amanda Congdon.   Not clear to me how much this hurt the show, but the buzz died way down until Rocketboom was bought by a big player recently.

But it gets more fun/sad/tragic/interesting.    Baron’s father, a prominent Texas attorney, is a friend and supporter of John Edwards and some rumors suggest he may have played a role in what appear to be possible hush money payments or at least hush up activities surrounding John Edwards affair with a …. campaign video producer.

So, do all roads lead to low monetizing but highly subsidized online video?   Stay tuned for the next video episode – at least as long as we can find some politicians or parents to pay for it.

Olympics Opening Ceremony Fireworks Coverage Faked – sort of…


Wow, when I first read this I thought it was a conspiracy theory but the UK Register report appears true.  Some 55 seconds of fireworks during the opening ceremony were computer generated.    The fireworks *really did happen* and presumably looked very similar to the clip, but fearing they could not film this in all it’s spectacle NBC spent about a year creating the fake clip.

Of course this would be crazy if the fireworks did NOT happen, but given that they did it clouds the issue of misrepresentation.   ie they didn’t do this to “fake us out”, rather to better represent a reality that would have been hard to capture in real time.    Still, I don’t like it.   When you fake something like this it is incumbent to present it as a simulation or animation.    Not doing so raises a lot of credibility questions, which are particularly unsavory for the main reporting agency in the world’s top sporting event.

Sheesh – I was prepared to be very complimentary of NBC ever since I heard their great presentation at CES Las Vegas where they talked about Beijing coverage.     C’mon NBC – let’s provide transparency in coverage and distribution and everybody can be happy!