Did you apologize to your kids today for spending all their allowance money? And tens of thousands more of their money. For the rest of your life.


Did you thank your kid today for all the money they’ve been loaning you?

As a supporter of many of the changes President Obama has brought to our national table it’s painful to watch so many folks simply back away from the next glaring financial catastrophe which makes the last one look like a walk in the park.    It’s the massive US national debt and massive deficit spending that has been going on now for over a decade, though never on the scale of the coming years.

Ironically this is a problem all of us were talking about a *lot* before the economy melted down, and even before the GW Bush era of what is best called “fake conservatism”  doubled the national debt.    President Bush was able to push his irresponsible spending down the pike to Obama thanks to inheriting  a very robust Clinton era economy, keeping folks happy with tax cuts, and claiming the war spending was essential to preserve our freedom.   Where a handful of real fiscal conservatives cried foul, legions of fake conservatives stayed silent and followed the leads of the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity who suckered the gullible into focusing on the lies and distortions that fueled the Bush v. Gore,  Bush v.  Kerry, and McCain v. Obama campaigns.   Power was far more important to all the parties than sound principles of governance, spending, or national policy.

Now it’s Obama who is able to ignore the massive spending and debt because the economic meltdown he inherited from Bush has trumped concerns for the debt. and some form of stimulus is certainly called for according to almost all economists.

Thankfully the massive Obama spending stimulus appears to be bringing us out of recession though it’s not clear at what future cost.     In politics it’s hard for parties and Presidents to look too far past the big power curve, and in my view Obama and the Democrats won’t even work hard to undertand the implications of spending themselves past the 2012 elections and then they will just hope for a miracle.   More likely than a miracle is that we’ll see very high inflation as  the Government is virtually forced to print money to repay obligations since the tax rates required to repay the anticipated debts will be totally unsupportable and unsustainable.

Another irony of the situation is that all those formerly quiet “conservatives” are now quite reasonably suggesting we’re creating a new financial catastrophe, but the concerns are falling on deaf Democratic ears because these same people were not critical of their own political allies back when they did have a voice and they tend to blend in nonsense talking points (birth certificates, communist agendas, etc, etc) about Obama and the Democrats.

In simple terms we are saddling our children and future generations with a debt that almost certainly cannot be repaid in any conventional fashion.    The amounts are too staggering to understand even if you are well versed in accounting and math.   This interactive chart is worth a look if you want to see how the numbers shake out in terms of government spending per capita:   http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/US_per_capita_spending.html#usgs302

So, when you hug your son, daughter, niece or nephew today be sure to tell them “thanks for the money”  because they have been loaning you a LOT of money for the past ten years, especially this last one.   Many tens of thousands and growing hugely each year.

We’re stealing our kids prosperity away.   The least we can do is say “Thank you”.

P.S.   The solution to all this is remarkable simple.   After a few years of stimulus deficit spending the government should be required to lower spending to balance the budget over the following few years.  Our current massive entitlement and defense spending could sustain 100% of the required cuts to balance the budge without any significant diminished standards of living for Americans.

IMPORTANT:  Few of the comments below represent my views, but I avoid censoring politics here so I’ve chosen not to delete the many off topic comments.   I’m reconsidering that policy because much of the material below is, in my view, not helpful to any rational discussion of these topics.

Ask Yourself: What Would Prove me WRONG?


An excellent comment I heard recently suggested how we are primed to look for the data that supports what we are already believe rather than challenge our own visions of the world by asking what arguably is the most important question you can ask about your own beliefs:   “What Would Prove Me WRONG?”.     We see this all the time in politics where advocates present only information that supports their position and only review comments from the opposition that make them look bad.   Where objective people look at “all the facts”, advocates only look in one direction.

As a science person the importance of the “What Would Prove Me Wrong” approach  is pretty obvious  – though I sometimes fail my own test and forget to ask this question rather than the more common and misguided “what data will prove my idea correct?”.

At first glance you might say “hey, it’s important and justifiable to look mostly for the data that will prove my idea right!”.    But you’d be … WRONG.. to think that.    More importantly you’d be *irrational* if you think that approach will get you closer to the truth.   It will simply reinforce your existing perception.   You may be right or wrong, but since it’s easy to find support for even completely faulty ideas by “cherry picking”, truth demands you look at *all* the data or when that is not possible work hard to sample the data you do review in unbiased ways.

In science this inappropriate focus  is often called “Cherry Picking” and it’s the practice of focusing too narrowly on supporting data in such a way that it creates a biased observation.      An extreme example would be for somebody to suggest that an unusually hot summer “proves”  global warming, or that an unusually cold winter “disproves” it.     Contrary to what you’d think if you get your science from common journalistic misinterpretations, few of the events cited in the news tell you much of anything about how to evaluate the complex climate models and observations that frame the complex global warming issues such as the role of human factors vs natural variation, the costs of mitigation, and the significance of the warming trends themselves in terms of our global future well-being.

Science relies heavily on a wonderful principle called skepticism.   Unfortunately that wondeful notion of “skepticism” has been seriously damaged during the massive global warming debates where “skeptics” of the “anthropogenic global warming hypothesis”, also called “AGW”  are disparaged as “deniers” who have no interest in science or truth.     While it is true that many “global warming skeptics” are simply parroting nonsense talking points and never asking themselves “What Would Prove me WRONG?”,  many defective forms of rational inquiry are now commonplace in the scientific community as well.      This is unfortunate and more importantly has created within science a new “advocacy model” where many scientists no longer see their primary role as that of unbiased, objective researcher – they also want to become spokespeople for policy changes they feel are the logical extension of their research.    This scientist/ advocate model has combined with our natural human egos in very undesireable ways.

An excellent example is the defense by no less than several NASA climate scientists of the misleading and scientifically unjustified claims in the film “An Inconvenient Truth”.     Debating the merits of that film at the RealClimate.org blog quickly taught me that my old school ideas about science and scientists as “profoundly skeptical seekers of truth” have been replaced by the new idea that scientists are not only entitled to be advocates, they are pretty much obligated to be advocates.      I’d argue that this single factor is the most alarming trend in science right now because advocates don’t see or think nearly as clearly as researchers (formerly proudly called skeptics).   If there is one thing we need moving forward it is clear thinking and skepticism rather than an almost blind adherence to complex models attempting to describe the world.

Update on this meme:  https://joeduck.com/2009/11/20/climate-science-scandal-will-paleo-dendrochronology-survive/

Talent Oregon Coffee Shop Website Goes Live


My buddies over the Whistle Stop Coffee shop have a new website  and this is a post to help them get indexed more quickly at Google.  It’s a work in progress for them.    Small business sites can take some time to get indexed partly because Google, IMHO, is not doing a very good job with  the indexing of very fresh content.   This is partly because spammers are overwhelming the internet with fake websites and junky content which mean Google waits for incoming links and other signs of authenticity before indexing new stuff.

However, for businesses like the Whistle Stop, it can some time to get incoming links.    Hopefully this post will get them juiced up a bit since Google indexes this blog often and will follow the links out and “find” the new site.

Also important is to “claim” your business via Google’s small business service called “Google Local”.  Instructions are here

It’s also a good idea, though a bit of a hassle,  to create a sitemap for new websites – a list of pages that should be indexed.   This can be done online at now cost via search for “free sitemap” services and then submit to Google at no charge via the webmaster console.

Domain Renewal Group – BOGUS MARKETING ALERT!


The “Domain Renewal Group” with an address listed in Buffalo appears to be like other shady firms preying on unsuspecting domain name holders.    They have sent me a “Domain Name Expiration Notice” with a “Reply Requested by July 27” for  1)  A domain they have nothing to do with and 2) a domain name that does not expire until November.

This common tactic preys on the fact that people either routinely pay bills or don’t understand the system well enough to know that most renewals are handled online anyway.    These letters make it appear as if you need to work with them to renew when in fact they will *move* your domain from current registrar and will generally charge much more per year for the fees.

In the case of the Domain Renewal Group they charge a whopping $30 per year so I’d be looking at an increase in my domain fees of some 400%

General rule for domain name holders:   Use great caution with any renewal notices, but also MAKE SURE your names will be automatically renewed with your current registrar if you forget, change email, or miss the notices which are generally NOT sent via real mail.     In typical internet irony the real paper mail domain notices are generally scams where the half-assed email renewal note may be legitimate.

Many registrars including the one I use (Godaddy) make it too easy to lose domain names if you don’t pay for them by expiration, often whisking them away into auction after only a few weeks.  For this reason “auto renewal” is generally a very good idea.

Note:  If you work for DOMAIN RENEWAL GROUP feel free to contact me – I’ll print your response to this.

Bud Light Hardbat Classic at The Venetian Hotel, Las Vegas – is this good or bad for the game?


We’re back from a fun three days in Las Vegas and I’m thinking about whether the approach taken by Budweiser (the big tournament sponsor) and Killerspin (equipment maker and I think the sponsor of the “All Star” competition)  is going to be good or bad for the wonderful game of Table Tennis.

My short take is yes, this is great for the game because it raises awareness and gets people playing more in bars and basements and therefore will bring more people into the serious side of the sport.    However I would recommend better social media  next year, tied initially to the bar tournaments and then to the big Las Vegas spectacular.  There was very little media buzz offline or online about this tournament despite hundreds of free trips to Las Vegas, celebrities, big money,  pretty athletes, and a two hour ESPN special coming in September!      Everybody loves this game in different ways and somehow this part was lost in the PR campaign leading up to and including the tournament.

In real Table Tennis the play is at a much higher level than we saw even among the best players at the Hardbat Classic because everybody was required to use one of two special  “hard bat”  paddles made just for this tournament.

$100,000 Winner Jack Baker, originally from London and now from Mobile Alabama, had won a local bar tournament.  He was an excellent player but would have been crushed by Trevor Runyan but for the point spread.  Runyan is a US Hardbat Champion who barely made it out of the All Star tournament to face Jack in the semifinals where he lost due to the point spread.  I think the spread was 17 but don’t know yet (I missed the final day’s matches).

Despite a lot of grumbling by the best players who faced the huge handicappings, I think the idea of spotting points is good because it forces everybody to play their very best.    Not so with these paddles, which basically forced many of us who know the game well to play far below our normal levels.     I had trouble even keeping the ball on the table – I think because I’d mostly practiced with the hardbat against a robot which did not give me a sense of what type of shot would be coming to me from these paddles.     Every player I saw from beginner to international class was struggling to get performance out of this blade, so if I had to make one recommendation for next year it would be to find better equipment that would showcase skills.     Old style hardbats, used in the heydey of the game as a spectator sport, shoud be reviewed by Bud and Killerspin.

The lower end paddle was much like the junkiest type of pips out paddles you’d buy for a few dollars at Wal- Mart, where the higher end paddle was a notch up in blade and rubber quality though still seemed light and hard to control.    Head was normal sized where a better hardbat head might have been larger.   The  pips rubber allowed a very modest level of spin but control was so weak that the rallies with these paddles tended to be very, very short.

This problem was significant as the whole idea is to get people excited about watching long rallies and I do not think this type of equipment is best for that.     Better would be to find a blade/rubber combination that slowed the speed and spin down but allowed longer rallies with more work and motion on the part of the players.  This is what might turn Table Tennis into a more popular spectator sport in the USA.

Another popularity strategy I’d love to see would be regular bar tournaments with money or prizes.   I think Bud’s done a lot of good in that direction with the Hardbat Classic, though  it was disappointing for me that the distributor held a small tournament locally but did not pony up the money to send the winner to Las Vegas .   Especially because the winner was … me.

Although I heard something about “4000 local tournaments” that number made no sense because there did not appear to even be a total of 1000 players at the tournament – more like about 300-400 would be my guess and that includes the “basement” players that had no rating, players like me who were rated by the US Table Tennis Assn, and the 8 all stars, mostly from Killerspin’s great team of amazing players.

The Table Tennis “All Stars” who were invited by Killerspin and Bud played against each other and this was the most exciting, high quality play even though they were handicapped with the low grade rackets.     Table Tennis Superstar and Olympic Silver Medalist  Ilya Lupulesku http://server2.usatt.org/magazine/08mar-apr/lupulesku%20.pdf was there but was having a lot of trouble with the hardbat and the fact that his ranking meant he had to give many points to his opponent.      He did not even make it out of his first round robin with other All Stars.    I understand that David Zhuang, another amazing player who has won the US national championships lost *every match* in his first round robin in the “pros” division – I assume because he had to give up to 17 points to the other players.

My initial reaction was that the handicap system was failing to be fair with points, but the idea was to make it very hard on the best players and in this they succeeded  – few “great” players made it out of the initial round.   My round robin opponent  Ashu Jain, a brilliant player with the HBC hardbat, managed to win a a lot but was finally defeated due to the large point handicaps.

…. more soon with pictures ….

ABC Search Affiliate Browser Hijack using abcjmp.com advertising


Update:  The malware seems to be hitting affiliates other than the ABCSearch, making a bit stronger their claim of innocence in matters relating to browser hijacking.

Still, it would seem to me that these problems would disappear if every affiliate relationship was defined by a *real, verified person* and then ad companies were required to identify (to authorities AND to the hijack victim) the recipient of any advertising revenue generated by the hijack.    This would put the pressure on the hijackers, not the victims.

NOTE:  It’s not yet clear to me the indirect role that ABCSEARCH plays in this frustrating equation of a browser hijacking redirecting to ABC advertisers.   It would seem they could police this activity better (as I think Google does with their adsense program).

I’m now struggling to remove a browser hijack routine where a spam affiiliate of ABCSEARCH is forwarding me to unwanted websites.    I’m furious with ABCSEARCH for failing to provide me with *any* helpful information, most importantly the identification of the affiliate who is the recipient of this fake search traffic.    ABC benefits from unwanted advertising and to some extent from this illegal activity and therefore is reluctant to lift the veil of secrecy that helps protect purveyors of unwanted advertising.  That is outrageous of them.

(I’m on a Vaio Desktop running Windows XP)

I found the info (below)indicating many others have had similar problems with the ABC advertising network.      Obviously they don’t directly support spammers but they *indirectly* support them by making it difficult to track down the offenders, some of whom are actually selling programs online that use a combination of infecting the computers with a browser hijack and ABC search ads.

When I figure out how to remove this ABCJMP ABCSEARCH spamming malware routine I’ll post it here.  In the meantime please let me know if you have the same problem.

What is abcjmp.com

Abcjmp.com is owned and operated by ABCSearch.com, the world’s largest privately held pay per click advertising network. Advertisers come to ABCSearch to distribute their ads across our broad network of search partners and content sites. Abcjmp.com is used as our network referral ID to identify and qualify traffic sent by our traffic partners.

Why am I seeing abcjmp.com on my computer?

Because ABCSearch is comprised up of a network of thousands of traffic partners, one of these partners may have included you into their distribution network. If you have received any advertisements that contain the url abcjmp.com, it is important to understand that ABCSearch.com and the advertiser are not directly responsible for the advertisement you received through our partner distribution that contains the advertisement with abcjmp.com in the domain name.

For Help

It is a high priority of ABCSearch.com and our advertisers to ensure a positive user experience. If you feel you have been receiving unwanted advertising through a distribution partner, please contact us with as much of the following information as possible: your IP address (http://www.whatismyip.com/), the full URL string with abcjmp.com ie:http://www.abcjmp.com/search/?affiliate=index0001&Terms=shoes&x=0&y=0, screenshots, and any other details you can share about your experience. With this information we can assist in getting you removed from the publisher’s distribution. However, because we do not control any part of the publisher’s process, we do not guarantee results. If the publisher uses advertisements supplied by ABCSearch.com’s advertising clients, we can try additional means to contact them and resolve any opt-out requests provided. Please send all correspondences to support@abcsearch.com and we will do our best to assist you.

Thank you,
The ABCSearch Team

The Illusion of Free Will


Gotta love the internet.  I was trying to find the Wegman Report, a very interesting critique of how global warming advocacy too often masquerades as science, and stumbled into a recent discusson of Free Will with an expert in Neuroscience and philosphy featured in the  New York Times:

… the philosopher agreed with Dr. Haggard that free will has biological roots. In fact, that is something all the men seemed to agree on: that free will is not a spiritual or magical experience endowed supernaturally within us, but rather, that the conscious decision-making ability is a result of organic brain activity.