File sharing fines go mainstream


Many see as harsh the recent $220,000 fine levied  on a Minnesota housewife for online music sharing, but it’s more appropriate to view this action as a significant milestone in the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) strategy to crack down on illegal music and try to push people to legal file downloading.   The coverage on this file sharing case is overwhelming and it will be very interesting to see how the online community will absorb this verdict.

CNET’s Declan has a good summary of key points in this RIAA case here, although in one sense it should be easy to understand the verdict because pretty much everybody knows file sharing is illegal!    Common use does not make file sharing “fair use”. 

Now, one can make a reasonable case that the illegality of file sharing is a trivial offense – something like driving going 58 mph in a 55 mph zone.  One can hammer home this point noting that simply making a mix tape for friends is also technically illegal but never enforced by RIAA, and that gray areas about in the law surrounding intellectual property.    But only foolish people (ie a lot of people) seem to argue that file sharing is a perfectly legal activity.

So, what is the solution here?   RIAA would say it is for everybody to stop illegal downloads and sign up for paid services.   Yet RIAA must be spending far more than 220k on this case, and won’t ever get that much from her anyway.  Given the difficulties of prosecution and the prevalence of the behavior I think the laws should to be modified to reflect widespread accepted social standards while still protecting copyright holders.  However this may just open up a new hornet’s nest of legal complications.    

Online advertising juggernaut rolls on.


This Internet Advertising Bureau report notes that online advertising is still showing explosive growth.    Interesting is the fact that the types of online advertising – with search ads at the top – seems to have stabilized somewhat with “pay for performance” one of the few categories that has clearly increased from last year.   

 I don’t think this stability reflects the “optimal” mix of ads, rather it is more an indication of how the big players take some time to get comfortable with innovations in advertising, and still stick to more traditional CPM style approaches rather than the clearly superior PPC and pay per performance models.   Clearly even many of the big advertisers and agencies still have fairly weak SEM and SEO departments so they’ll choose to use big CPM campaigns that are easy to analyze rather than the more productive – but more complicated to manage – PPC and performance approaches.

Online ads are now a mainstay of any good campaign, but it’ll take some years before advertisers realize the foolishness of many online advertising approaches which generally include bloated CPM impression campaigns.   Much more effective are targeted organic and PPC ad campaigns, but these require more analysis and a newer perspective.

The most conspicuously stupid type of campaign – still extremely popular in travel – is to use expensive print advertising in an attempt to boost online visitation.  I studied this *extensively* across many print ad types during my work marketing southern Oregon several years ago and despite the clear results that showed print ads lead to only a tiny number of online visits, many travel marketers still think print is an effective way to promote online.    It’s not, but it will continue until the incentives and simplicity of squandering money on ineffective print advertising go away.   The lack of research in this area is odd to me given the huge total travel advertising spend, but most travel research is self-serving and often sponsored or conducted by the very agencies or entities that benefit from certain results, so stupid biases remain intact for a long time.

The Language of God by Francis Collins. Book review


I enjoyed The Language of God, by Francis Collins, the head of the US government’s part of Genome project that unravelled the genetic blueprint of humanity. But I’m afraid I did not like the book for the reasons Collins seemed to be hoping for. He was encouraging those with mechanistic and scientific perspectives to consider his “Theistic Evolution” as a way to reconcile scientific fact and a belief in God. As philosophy / theology I think the book was pretty weak – it was a thoughtful and heartfelt personal journey to a belief in God, but little more than that.

The subtitle promises evidence for belief but Collins offers anecdotes, personal feelings, and CS Lewis quotes. Fine, but for the reasons I go into below I want some gosh darn burning bushes, thank you, and think that without them his argument is very weak.

Collins does do an excellent job as scientist. First, he very effectively demolishes “young earth creationism” where proponents maintain the earth is less than 10,000 years old, as a very naive view. Next he tackles “Intelligent Design” and actually made me less sympathetic to this approach than I’d been before, suggesting it’s a “god of the gaps” hypothesis that is already wearing down in the face of increasing understanding of the Darwinian evolutionary processes it claims to challenge . To Collins the scientific evidence is overwhelming and clear – basic chemistry and physics plus Darwinian style evolution explain pretty much all the organisms on the planet. I’m comfortable with that view because I think it springs from a combination of common sense observations and reason.

Much of the book is summarized in Collins’ key notions of Theistic Evolution. I’m comfortable with the science stuff but I simply don’t understand two things that seem to resonate so strongly with him, and I think with many thoughtful people of faith. The first is that morality is a sign of God rather than a product of evolutionary and social forces over time. The second is that God has a personal relationship with humans and cares about us. Here are my concerns about those two ideas:

Problem idea number 1: Morality has not and could not have evolved in our species from the same sorts of natural forces that evolved arms and legs and brains and babies.

The concepts of morality that are so often cited as evidence of God seem to me instead to be pretty good evidence of social evolution, especially when viewed over time since the ideas about personal freedoms and responsibility and what constitutes immoral acts have changed so much.

The biological structures in humans are very, very complex and required millions of years of natural selection. Rather than pushing us to perfection they pushed us *away* from failure. Once we had the power to reason and think we started to approach our evolutionary survival battles using social relationships and rule systems which evolved into current codes of conduct aka “morality”. Sometimes these battles required a loser and this leads to the selfish motivations so prevalent in humanity. But it’s also reasonable to assume that wanting to “win” would lead us to look for “win win” situations rather than “lose lose” or even “I win you lose”. Economists call this “optimizing” and I think a rational being is going to logically seek “optimal” relationships even if selfishness is the primary driver.

These optimal relations = morality are characterized by many of the principles we claim to hold dear like life, liberty, happiness, do unto others, no adultery, etc. However, as with biological evolution I think one suggestion that morality has evolved rather than been “handed down” to us from above is how defectively and subjectively we observe morality in our daily lives. If it was an objective truth from the mind of God it seems we’d have fewer moral disputes and transgressions.

We fail in many basic tests such as human kindness, but more importantly those of us in affluent societies don’t do much to share our resources or (more importantly) train others to implement systems that would better their lives on their own. But even this morality is subjective. For example well-meaning people can’t even agree on how to improve the standard of living in sub Saharan Africa. Some say it’s immoral not to fight global warming and work for less corporate involvement in poor countries. I’d say we need more corporate stuff to raise the standards. For many the corporate systems are an immoral form of organization, yet I’d argue that corporations are a good and moral way to organize business activity.

Most agree that we all have a moral imperative to take action on some things, but we would not agree in many cases about what things need the action. And this happens when people share a lot of ultimate objectives. When we bring in fundamentally different moral systems the objective morality argument seems to break down even further.

Bring in the sociopathic types of “morality” such as militant violence in the name of religion and you have our fellow humans suggesting that killing is fine if it leads to certain forms of governments. It’s not reasonable (maybe I should say it’s not “enough”) to simply discard those views as defective products of God’s free will experiments. They are moral codes just like yours or mine, yet they are very, very different.

Clearly morality is most adequately explained as a somewhat subjective thing. Even those few things that we overwhelmingly agree about seem to me to fall into categories that would be powerful selection forces over time. Preserving children and human rights, for example. Yet even those simple moral precepts seem to break down quickly. Taliban morality says it’s wrong to educate a female child, Cheney thinks torture is OK in several circumstances. If morality is objective then where is the rule book? The Bible, Koran, Torah don’t offer consistent guidance by any stretch of the imagination, so we are left with human interpretations of morality.

Problem idea number 2: God has a personal relationship with all of us, cares about our well being, and wants us to know him.

First, I don’t think one can reasonably challenge the idea that there *may be a God* outside of the physical world we observe – a prime mover or passive observer God. I’m even OK if you say God is out there all over the place as a manifesation of physical laws that govern things but he is very *passive* about things and not really a “conscious” God, just an all powerful collection of forces. I also won’t challenge that maybe God started off the show and then cut us loose and now has other business to attend to so he’s not around much if at all. HOWEVER what I think is *not* supportable is the assertion that God “cares” about us in the personal sort of way we understand from human to human interactions. Not supportable is the idea that God wants us to know he’s out there, and cares about us, but provides no clear and powerful scientific evidence for his existence. Where is God’s upside in this approach if he really wants us to know him and believe in him?

If God *cares* about us, and wants us to believe in him, and wants us to thrive, why is he such an invisible parent? I’m somewhat familiar with arguments that suggest God felt free will was important, and Jesus and other prophets have been sent as “proof” of God, presumably because they could relate to humans better than God could if he appeared himself. But these really all beg the key question. Why aren’t there more burning bushes? Why in this world of God’s creation and love, if God *cares* about us and *cares* whether we believe in him, would he not make the evidence so overwhelming as to be “obvious” to Richard Dawkins and millions of other doubters? Agnostics and atheists are not bad people, and are not blind to evidence, and most would welcome even a modest presentation by God that would settle the issue powerfully in God’s favor. Some would suggest “hey, the evidence is everywhere – you just need to open your eyes to it!”, but this is not reasonable, because the things we observe every day are overwhelmingly within the province of scientific explanation. If God wants us to know him he’ll need to do a bit more than just show us the world we can already explain and see without reference to God. Again, what is the downside here? What is the *problem* that happens if God makes his presence known clearly by scientific means? Why is God so shy?

Much has been written explaining scenarios that contain a caring God but in which God’s presence is not made overwhelmingly clear with burning bushes and such. Very few seem to tackle what I think is a key question – why is God such an absent and even abusive parent? We would call it child abuse if a parent sat on the sidelines and let their children fend for themselves in a hostile world, never identifying themselves clearly and providing no more guidance to their children than to the kids down the street. I’ve heard that you can attribute all of the sufferering in the world to humans and their free will, which I’m told God values. Yet those same people say God values and desires us to know him in a personal way, and he does provide us with plenty of evidence of his existence. God is either OK providing us with evidence or he is not. Why, if God so cares about us and wants us to know him does he not simply make a great cosmic presentation which clearly articulates those things he thinks are important? Many would then use their free will to conclude the evidence favored God. A few would not, but on balance God’s objectives of more global harmony and more morality would be better preserved and free will would be left intact. I think some would suggest “Hey, God wants you to come to know him without all that fanfare!”. But that’s actually nonsensical because it’s basically saying that there is enough information put out there by God for *some people* to come to terms with God on a personal level, but there is not enough information for those who want clean scientific evidence for belief. What’s the downside of a few burning bushes?

To me the answer seems clear – if there is a God, his personal relationship to us is very passive.

Charlie Rose Interview:

http://www.charlierose.com/guests/francis-collins

Google’s Constitutional Amendment: The Right to Rank as you see fit


Some of the most lively debate and controversy at search conferences surrounds the issue of Google ranking rights.   At Search Engine Strategies in San Jose the most interesting (and confrontational) session involved Michael Gray taking Matt Cutts to task on Google’s aggressive stand on commercially driven linking.    

The stakes of the “right to rank” question may become even higher in the context of a recent Microsoft v Google case, where MS is suggesting in their court brief against the Google Doubleclick merger that the merger will create something like monopoly conditions in the online advertising space because (according to Microsoft’s sources) Google+Doubleclick serve more than half the world’s online advertising.  

Although I don’t think MS is attacking Google ranking methods directly here it’ll be interesting to see if Google claims that since their algorithm does not rank the free “organic” listings on a commercial basis the suit has less merit than it would if they *did* favor sites in the organic listings.   

This would, of course, beg the key point that Google’s ranking power is now so high that it can make or break companies – offline as well as online – depending on how they rank in the organic “free” listings.   This confers on Google an obligation that IMHO they still do not take seriously enough – the obligation to minimize the collateral damage and maximize the correct rankings using, if necessary, more human intervention.     In short I’m saying that until the results are *so good* that only highly subjective opinions are coming into play Google needs to do *more* than is currently done, based on the principle that “with great wealth comes great responsibility”.    Ironically I think Google’s success has to a large extent insulated them from the growing criticism in the webmaster community.   Some of that criticism is self serving, e.g. spammers who are unhappy their tactics now fail, but much of the criticism is coming from users and newly minted webmasters or mom and pops who are frustrated because they can’t seem to get ranked properly for even the most obvious queries.   Google blames the spammers for this, but it’s a dynamic process and more transparency from Google – perhaps with stronger forms of site and webmaster ID for “official” or clearly white hat sites – could go a long way to solving the transparency problems.

Over at Matt Cutts’ blog he makes this point about a recent ASK court case decision in favor of a search engine’s right to rank as they see fit.  This point lies at the heart of the right to rank debate:

 Again, it makes sense that search engines get to decide how to rank/remove content in their own index…

I replied over there:

Matt …hmmm….wouldn’t you agree that this has some clear limits?   What would you call crossing the line on this freedom to rank however you see fit?
*
If Google pulled what Yahoo did some time ago and essentially forced sites to pay for inclusion or be excluded would that fall within the sensical realm?  
*
MSN is claiming (somewhat ironically and hypocritically, but correctly) that Google’s ad power is becoming close enough to a monopoly that remedies are in order.  Historically there has been trouble when a single company or country controlled more than half a resource – why no problem here?      

—– end reply —–

Britney Spears Loses Kids today. Oh, and some 27,000 children will lose their LIVES. Today


OK, so it’s beneath me as a web guy, technology “writer” and pseudo journalist to write about Britney Spears latest headline sweeping news.     But wait, sadness for her children aside it’s another SEO experiment!

It’s true by the way.  A court just ordered Britney to give up her children to ex-husband Kevin Federline.  Frankly, I’m surprised that with all her wealth she could not have bought her way out of this, probably an excellent decision by the judge.   Poor Britney is a mess – a victim of our overwhelming entertainment and star obsession.  Now her kids are victims too.

But, this isn’t really news and all of us should be completely ashamed of ourselves for the attention we and the networks and our world give to this garbage.  Sure it’s titillating, but it’s not news.  News is big.  News matters.  News is that about 27,000 children die each *day* from preventable causes that, if prevented would likely reduce our own economic and military burdens. 

Poor Britney Spears, poor Britney!  Oh, yes, and poor 27,000 children.

Pipo Nguyen-duy


Pipo Nguyen-duy is one of my table tennis pals, but Pipo is also a great photographer who teaches art at Oberlin in Ohio.   Like many new sites,  Pipo‘s website is not appearing first as it should for the query “Pipo Nguyen-duy”.   Other sites that *reference* Pipo’s art appear before his because Google’s algorithm still faces challenges when it tries to determine the best site for the query, which in this case clearly should be his own website.

Here the SEO problem likely relates to the ranking weakness of a new site vs. an old one,  plus the fact Google cannot easily “know” that the site  pipo nguyen-duy.com is actually the official site for the name Pipo Nguyen-duy.   There’s also a title tag change needed over at the website, but this post should start fixing the problem by providing some authoritative links to Pipo Nguyen-duy ‘s real website using anchor text that matches the query we are targeting and a lot of text rich in the query term.    This technique is known as “white hat SEO” because it’s “helping Google” properly index and get the right site ranked for the query.    Generally Google approves of this type of SEO tactic if they see it as something that makes indexing work better and does not deceive users.

Singularity Talks Online


Several talks from the recent Singularity conference are now online and linked up at the Singularity Institute website.    I just read the transcript of Google’s Peter Norvig who seemed cautious but optimistic. 

Norvig is clearly one of the key insiders working in one of the places where a general AI could possibly crop up even without human intervention, though I got the idea Norvig felt that was not likely anytime soon.    I was disappointed he didn’t elaborate on what Marissa Mayer mentioned to me last month after her keynote at the Search Strategies conference – the idea that search results for some queries are increasingly looking more and more like the product of human-like intelligence.    I should note that Mayer did not seem to think this was a sign of impending general AI from the Googleplex – she just thought it was a very interesting development.

Facebook will rule the world in 33 days! Ummm … not.


Yes, of course Facebook is a great implementation of Social Networking which is undoubtedly the paradigm that will dominate the internet world for at least a few years.  However Facebook is hardly a *new* idea  and it’s hardly immune to other social networking forces that are in the mix now and will be popping up as time moves on.

AllFacebook is reporting that soon Facebook could kill off LinkedIn with new ways to segregate and work with your contact list, and I think he’s got a good point.   Ideally it seems like would be nice to have ONE intersection point that can be adjusted and manipulated according to our network, community, or audience.   But it’s not clear people will want that to be a commercial enterprise – in fact OpenID in some form seems more likely to take on that role. 

Despite all the hype surrounding a 10 billion valuation for Facebook and rumors of their takeover of the world I’m skeptical they’ll be as dominant as many seem to think after a few years of hassling with the real world of real people – potentially very fickle facebookers. 

Facebook is seeking the mantle of the one stop social networking shop, and as of the latest buzz they seem in a good position to take over from Myspace as the world’s top social network.   However Facebook has a very long way to go in terms of subscribers even though it does seem that the earlier enthusiasm folks showed for Myspace is  giving way to Facebook.    But Facebook is not as “fun” as Myspace so I’d guess we’ll see a demographic division as kids and new users gravitate to the more “fun” sites like MySpace or the new Yahoo Mash and more sophisticated users move in the direction of Facebook.   

TechCrunch on Facebook’s changes

Real Estate prices. Highest to lowest cities show more than a 1000% difference.


Wow, Coldwell Banker is reporting these stats on the most expensive vs cheapest USA markets for a comparable  4 BR house.  I’ve been wondering about this for some time and this indicates clearly the truth of the old maxim in real estate “location, location, location”Looks like here in southern Oregon we are near the national average of about 410k for a 4BR house.

City

Price
Greenwich, Conn. $2,018,750
Santa Monica, Calif. $1,785,000
Newport Beach, Calif. $1,617,500
San Mateo, Calif. $1,498,023
Boston, Mass. $1,381,250

Most affordable markets
City Price
Minot, N.D. $139,033
Canton, Ohio $146,333
Topeka, Kan. $150,075
Tulsa, Okla. $153,750
Wichita, Kansas $156,500

1850 bottle of Scotch sets sales record at almost $60,000


A 157 year old Bowmore Scotch sold for almost $60,000, setting a new world scotch record.  My experiences with single malts have been uninspired – so much so that I’m skeptical about most people who claim to have special tastes for good scotch.

However in this case I’m guessing that even I could tell the difference.    

But at $2000 for a shot of this whiskey I’m confident we’ll never know.   

 Hey Mr. Bartender, can you make mine a 1850 Bowmore whiskey sour with extra ice?