If Scoble is worried, your 2.0 should worry too.


Robert’s concerned about potential failures of Web 2.0 companies.   He’s one of the best connected online people and his departure from Microsoft last month to join podtech signalled some *optimism* about the potential of Web 2.0.   Now that he’s in the trenches with other 2.0 startups it makes me nervous to hear him worry, though I think his concerns are legitimate and notable.

To me a key question remains unanswered, and relates to how people will relate to community niches which I predict will dominate the future of online activity, though I’m not sure how search will fit into the mix and it may continue to generate most of the revenues.

Will people primarily:

1) Join online communities as they grow up organically from the ground up ?
(e.g. Myspace, Facebook, PlentyofFish, Flickr)

2) Join communities that they are directed to via advertising and other activities at Google, Yahoo, MSN, AOL?
(e.g. Yahoo360)

3) Start with 1 and finish with 2 after the big company aquires the 2.0 company?

There are other possibilities but I think option 3 is going to be the pattern we’ll see for most companies.  FOX’s aquisition of Myspace and Yahoo’s of Flickr suggest that the big guys may just wait to see what creamy companies rise to the top and skim them off.    This experimental approach seems logical given the very high level of uncertainty associated with all things online.

Poverty? Cool!


I really like the ONE campaign because I think it’s doing something other development efforts have failed to do – harness celebrity power and “coolness” into the mix which encourages those who otherwise do not think about these issues to …. think about them a lot and jump on the bandwagon. One is making it “cool” to care about poverty, and I can think of few more powerful forces of change than the coolness factor. http://www.one.org

Kids, cars, costs, and risks


Time to buy a car that’ll be used by my son, a new driver. Here we have the intriguing but rarely discussed intersection of safety, cost, and coolness factors. As for most parents, the safety of my kids is my top priority. However like most parents I won’t be seeking the single safest vehicle available for my new driver. Rather I’ll balance various concerns according to behavior formulas I do not understand and hope for the best. At times like these I wish there were simple programs for a family decision maker to allocate risk rationally, but I doubt you could make money on them. I don’t think evolution prepared humans much for allocating long term risks and rewards. It would be nice, for example, to see if the substantial risks associated with bicycling swamp out the differences in risks between a car with and without airbags. ie can I get the same “safety boost” I get with airbags by just having my son foresake a few hours of bike riding or other “riskier than driving” behavior.
Here’s a summary of some old Natl Transportation Safety Data from OK Police (I couldn’t find more recent data or the direct source at NHTSA.

Air bags save lives. Air bags in passenger cars and light trucks prevented an estimated 1,136 fatalities from 1986 to 1995, with another 600 saved in 1996. Once these life saving devices are equipped in all cars, it is estimated that 3,000 lives will be saved each year.

Driver-Side Air Bags
Driver-side air bags reduce the overall fatality risk of car drivers by a statistically significant 11 percent.

In other words, a fleet of cars equipped with driver-side air bags will have 11 percent fewer driver fatalities than the same cars would have had if they did not have air bags. Still, air bags can be dangerous to short stature adults sitting too close to the air bag module, especially when unbuckled.

Passenger-Side Air Bags
Passenger-side air bags reduce the overall fatality risk of car passengers age 13 and older by a statistically significant 13.5 percent.

It is estimated that an additional 88 right front passengers ages 13 and older would have died from 1986 to 1995 if passenger cars or light trucks had not been equipped with passenger-side air bags.

To date only one passenger, a 98-year-old female, has died as the result of an adult passenger-side air bag-related injury.

MORE: Here’s more data including a study (see left side of page) that suggests over 12,000 deaths from US state’s failures in more aggressively implementing seat belt laws.   If we assume these folks are worth 2.7 million each as the transportation department likes to do,  then in simple terms it would have been worth 12000 x 2.7 million = 32.4 billion dollars to prevent these deaths.     Assuming EPA’s higher value of life number we get even more life bang from our bucks by getting people to buckle up, which is one of the cheapest ways to save lives.    The cheapest of all for USA life saving, if I recall correctly from a study printed in the book “The Skeptical Environmentalist”, is increasing the use/quality of smoke detectors in buildings and homes.    For life saving on a global scale I think it’s oral rehydration therapy or mosquito nets, which at .15 per dose / 2.50 per net are quite the deal if you see *human life* as the thing we should be optimizing for as we allocate limited resources to big problems.

Outland * * *


What a great old Sci Fi movie. I miss the bleak sci fi noir thriller films like this of the 70 and 80s. Sean Connery and Peter Boyle are great as the law vs the greedy corporate manager on a distant mining colony of Jupiter’s IO.    The storyline is not up to the superb sets and dark mood but this is a fun film

Blogging is great even if you don’t get indexed…


It’s hard for many people to understand why bloggers who only have a few readers enjoy blogging so much, but I suspect that most writers would understand that it’s fun to just jot things down regardless of the audience.   In fact I think I’m a better writer when I’m NOT writing for others, rather to clarify my own thinking or ideas or muddling confusions.

However, I’m noticing my usual readership of 75-150 appears WAY down, probably because Google is not indexing snippets of my posts as of a few days ago.  My first guess was some temporary confusion over WordPress blog indexing.  However, (and this is a cool thing about blogging) I’ve already got word from Robert Scoble over at his blog – the top wordpress blog – that he’s not seen this before.

Thar’s gold bars in them thar spams?!


CNN:  AOL is preparing to dig for buried gold and platinum on property in Massachusetts owned by the parents of a man it sued for sending millions of unwanted spam e-mails …

At the height of Hawke’s Internet activities, experts believe, Hawke and his business partners earned more than $600,000 each month — much of it cash — by sending unwanted sales pitches over the Internet for loans, pornography, jewelry and prescription drugs.