TechMeme, Twitter, and Pownce


For some time my working hypothesis about new niche tech sites is that they appear to have explosive early growth followed by traffic stability or only slight traffic increases as all the early adopter tech enthusiasts sign on, and other people show little interest.     The following Alexa data really supports this hypothesis:

Alexa Graph

TechMeme is one of my very favorite sites and I know this is true for many others.   I’m surprised TechMeme’s growth seemed to have tapered off so early, but in some ways this makes sense because there are only so many people – a small percentage of all onliners – who are heavily absorbed with the latest buzz from the technology world.    Twitter would have broader interest and appears to be growing still, yet I’m skeptical enough people have time to play the Twitter game to make this a mainstream application.   Pownce is a great application but I think people are unlikely to abandon Twitter for Pownce, and thus Pownce will struggle to grow from an entirely new set of social networking non-twitterers.

Rumors of Google and Plaxo and the McCarthy Conspiracy


Megan McCarthy reports at Wired today that Google may be picking up Plaxo for 200 million.    A few hours later Caroline McCarthy at CNET shoots down the rumor saying it appears unfounded.

Wazzup with all these McCarthys?    Are they rival sisters, trying to outscoop or undermine each other?    Spurned same named journalistas fighting for truth, freedom, and the American way?   Is this all just a coincidence?    Are these women related to the infamous Senator from Wisconsin Joe McCarthy?   Rumor has it that …

Yahoo Live … dies


Update:  Chad replies in comments below from the Yahoo Live team and I certainly agree that the rumors of the death of of Live were greatly exaggerated.  

Yahoo strikes again with what looked like a neat application – live streaming video for everybody – but woefully inadequate capacity to handle the huge interest in the beta.    The application sounds promising – you plug in your camcorder and start streaming live onto the web via your Yahoo Live account.   Although several other places have these services, Yahoo has the huge population and umm … server capacity …  to make this work for the millions of people who’ll be interested in chatting in this fashion.

Hmm – not sure if I should be warming up to the video socializing idea I viewed skeptically earlier in the year, though as I noted before I’m not at all bullish on the monetization potential of this type of communication, let alone monetization of video clips like those at Youtube – only the best “shows” with clever, engaging, or sexy people will do well in that regard, but I think this is another aspect of globalized social networking that is the new online paradigm. 

Who projects server capacity over there?     Based on the current home page of Yahoo live it appears it is only handling a few thousand streams when the thing went down.     

Matt’s got a play by play of the death of Yahoo live.

Robert Scoble on other streaming video applications.

Google News goes local


Google has launched a local news service that scans local news items for context and then lists them according to relevance to your city or zip code query at Google News.   Testing this today on a few Oregon cities I’ve been  impressed with the results as they seem to pull from some obscure but relevant sources and if Google eventually starts using most of the tens of thousands of local newspaper online sites and other sources this could be a superb tool for mashing up news with websites and blogs.

Gas Pumping Robot


Hey there’s a new robot in town (well, if you live in the Netherlands that is) and it’s pumping your gas:
http://blogs.edmunds.com/Straightline/4236

Here’s a Youtube Video of “TankPitStop” in action:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=7gPqDGrHQoM

The moral of the story is that we will be replaced by robots and computers, and this is all a good thing. 

Web 2.0 Conference


WebGuild of Silicon Valley sponsored a great one day conference last week.   I missed the event but here are some pictures  courtesy of Reshma Kumar and Daya Baran, the Vice President and President of WebGuild who have really done an extraordinary job making that group one of the premier internet insider gatherings in the world.

This year Craig Newmark from Craigslist gave one of the keynotes.    He’s one of the most interesting folks in the internet landscape and it would really have been fun to hear his talk.      For me, the huge success of Craigslist, combined with the simple and spartan look and structure, supports the idea that the internet at a core level is about *people and information* more than anything else. 

Split Up Yahoo?


Fred Wilson’s a sharp guy and his Yahoo plan is basically to outsource search to Google and dismantle the place into Yahoo’s many valuable components like the stake in  Alibaba.    I’m intrigued by this creative proposal though I can’t see Yahoo doing many of these things.  

Probably the big unknown in the big Microsoft+Yahoo equation is whether Yahoo will be willing to concede the search battle and use Google search and Google monetization.    In the short term this would bring more profit to Yahoo, but long term effects are not clear since they’d be effectively a prisoner to Google who would control a key function of Yahoo’s business.    However  Yang and the Yahoo board would likely see this as a superior situation to ownership by Microsoft.     Google’s stock has been dropping severely but they could still sweeten the pot with other helps, so I’ll be watching for better offers from Microsoft and counters from Google in the coming weeks. 

disclosure:  long on Yahoo

   

The proposed US Defense Budget is an outrage


As a fiscally responsible guy I had to chime in on the proposed US Defense budget which is, in a word, indefensible.     

At $515,000,000,000  this amount is conspicuous for several reasons, and I find it incomprehensible that people who call themselves fiscal conservatives continue to support the insane levels of inappropriate military spending.

One of the biggest reasons the proposed budget is irrational is the very low ROI on military spending.    Unlike infrastructure spending, the military spend does not leave you with more bridges, roads, and buildings.   It’s only justifiable to the extent it *protects value* and protects the national interests.     One need look no further than the Iraq war to see how questionable it is to suggest that spending 500 billion plus there has “protected” much of anything.   

One could probably make a strong case for the WWII military effort as it clearly rescued much of the world from the tyrannical grip of Nazi domination, but note that this spending came *after* the hostile actions.    I think GW would argue that spending now is a preventative measure for much greater spending later if regions like the middle east explode into much greater instability than now.   This is an arguable point, but I’d like to see his ROI calculations on this.     When you are talking about spending hundreds of billions annually you can reshape the entire planet with infrastructure improvements, and it is very hard to see how the military protection advantages would trump the tax, infrastructure, and good will advantages of redirecting military spending to other things or – probably more appropriately – lowering taxes and letting that help the economy and individuals.

I’d sure like to see the type of cost benefit analysis you’d do if the US was run more like a business than a bureaucratic empire, but one of the defects of our two party democracy is that neither party is interested in fiscal responsibility – they both want to spend irresponsibly and recklessly but on different things.    

This amount is more than all other nations combined, and more than half the entire global military budget.   It is true the US has historically born much of the expense of trying to maintain global stability  (for complex reasons), so simply noting this is half all defense spending does not explain enough.  However this amount still is highly questionable because many nations like Japan should be footing their own defense bills.

Note that this budget does not include funding for Iraq and Afghanistan wars.  Much will go for bloated, advanced weapons systems that have little place in a world where most of the threats are from asymetric warfare practiced by fundamentalists with 12th century sensibilities.

It is about time for people who call themselves fiscal conservatives to stop their sheep-like, bleeting support of these huge military budgets and start applying the same (correct) standards they apply to other government spending to the defense budget.  

Yahoo and Google BFF?


Reuters reports that Yahoo really wants to find a way out of the MS deal, and Google is offering *something* though it’s not at all clear to any outsiders what that something is.    Probably a partnership to help Yahoo monetize all their traffic using Google tools and perhaps Google search, though I’m somewhat skeptical that Yahoo can come away from this with a valuation boost near the value of what MS has offered.

If Microsoft is smart they’ll let Yahoo be Yahoo, with contractual assurances that Yahoo can keep on innovating and doing what they have done well for some time in the overall internet and Web 2.0 space.  They’ll let Yahoo retain their brand and culture, and basically keep things the way they have been minus the crappy monetization.   In turn Yahoo will have a few years – with the newfound clout and help of MS – to turn around the crappy monetization, bad morale, and loss of search share.  

disclosure:  Got the Yahoo Stocks.  Loving the Yahoo stocks.